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Old 09-23-2024, 12:51 PM  
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DVOA and Postseason odds tracking
Chiefs DVOA

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

3rd Ovr.
9th Off.
4th Def.

Postseason odds

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds


96%.2 chance AFC West title
76.4% chance 1 seed (1st)
64.9% chance AFCCG App (1st)
38.6% AFCCG Win (1st)
20.7% chance SB Win (2nd)
5.7% chance 17-0 (1st)
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Old 11-11-2024, 06:22 PM   #76
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No chance also if we get the 1 and have a bye I don't even know if he rests them the last week
Man I don’t know.

It would feel really ****ing stupid to get Patrick or Kelce (or any important starter for that matter) injured for the playoffs in a game with zero stakes.

This is a veteran team. They could take a month off, come back and not miss a beat.

I’m sure Kelce, Chris and some of the older players could use the extended rest too.
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Old 11-11-2024, 06:43 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by comochiefsfan View Post
If we wrap up the one seed early, like in Week 15 or 16;

Would Andy rest the starters for multiple regular season games?
They will be on a pitch count in Week 17 and sit in Week 18.
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Old 11-11-2024, 07:04 PM   #78
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Reid showed us in 2020 that they will rest starters week 18 if they have a chance to. And then they came out and looked good as **** against CLE in the divisional round until Mahomes got hurt.

I would sit them. You can’t risk injury. They’ve played so much football these last few years, they aren’t gonna be rusty. Also with no bye late this year, it’s gonna be even more needed.

If this team is fully fresh, it’s gonna pop on screen come that playoff game. The speed differential will be visible.
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Old 11-11-2024, 07:43 PM   #79
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Reid showed us in 2020 that they will rest starters week 18 if they have a chance to. And then they came out and looked good as **** against CLE in the divisional round until Mahomes got hurt.

I would sit them. You can’t risk injury. They’ve played so much football these last few years, they aren’t gonna be rusty. Also with no bye late this year, it’s gonna be even more needed.

If this team is fully fresh, it’s gonna pop on screen come that playoff game. The speed differential will be visible.
I have zero doubt they will sit for week 18.

I wonder if he would also sit them for week 17 if we have the bye locked up by then.
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Old 11-11-2024, 08:06 PM   #80
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I have zero doubt they will sit for week 18.

I wonder if he would also sit them for week 17 if we have the bye locked up by then.
That would be going too far IMO. I’d at least let them play a half.
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Old 11-11-2024, 08:34 PM   #81
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One guy is not enough. If that's the only reason to worry, there is no reason to worry.
It shouldn't be, no.

But Reid, going all the way back to Von Miller vs Alex Smith, has shown a really bad tendency to go SUPER conservative in the face of a dominant pass rusher from time to time.

I don't imagine we'd see that in the postseason but perhaps in that regular season game. That is likely to be a brutally ugly football game.
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Old 11-11-2024, 11:01 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
It shouldn't be, no.

But Reid, going all the way back to Von Miller vs Alex Smith, has shown a really bad tendency to go SUPER conservative in the face of a dominant pass rusher from time to time.

I don't imagine we'd see that in the postseason but perhaps in that regular season game. That is likely to be a brutally ugly football game.
Von Miller isn't exactly a dominant pass rushers anymore. I believe that he's got what, 3 sacks this year? And their pass rush group as a whole is middle of the pack.
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Old 11-11-2024, 11:10 PM   #83
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Von Miller isn't exactly a dominant pass rushers anymore. I believe that he's got what, 3 sacks this year? And their pass rush group as a whole is middle of the pack.
I think they were talking about Watt and the Steelers.

Prime Von was used as a comparison to Watt.
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Old 11-12-2024, 12:44 AM   #84
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No chance also if we get the 1 and have a bye I don't even know if he rests them the last week
They'll treat it like a preseason game. The starters will play the 1st half then let the backups start in the 2nd half if they clinched the #1 seed and to have recorded that Patrick started all 17 games.
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Old Yesterday, 10:49 PM   #85
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Chiefs fall to 5th overall.

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-playoff-odds

91.4% chance AFC West title (-5%)
53.1% chance 1 seed (1st) (-23%)
50.3% chance AFCCG App (1st) (-15%)
27.2% AFCCG Win (1st) (-11%)
11% chance SB Win (3rd) (-10%)
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Old Today, 10:32 AM   #86
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Whew, 43% chance of a Super Bowl win for Detroit?

The Lions are being set up for a MIGHTY fall.
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