Conspiracy Theroy: Mahomes is the most bailed out QB

[DenverChief]

Fascinating stats and the real result is

To start, this stat has no denominator. The player we would expect to lead the league in interceptions overturned by penalties since the start of 2018 is the guy who has thrown the most passes of any kind over that timeframe: Patrick Mahomes, with 3,608 pass attempts.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Jared Goff (3,508) is the only QB within 300 attempts. Because he's thrown more than anyone, Mahomes leads since 2018 in lots of things, like passes completed for exactly 13 yards (96) or yards on slants (1,215). So it's no surprise that he leads the league in overturned INTs.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

After that play in the Bengals game, this stat was used to further the idea that Mahomes is being bailed out for bad passes by referees. The problem is that there's a penalty which wipes off a lot of interceptions that has nothing to do with referee judgment calls: Offsides.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Eight of those 17 interceptions were plays where a defender went offsides and Mahomes threw the ball up on a free play. Those obviously aren't bailout calls. (Furthermore, the most famous offsides call last year was on ... then-Chiefs player Kadarius Toney.)

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

One of the 17 didn't actually wipe off an interception - Matt Judon was flagged for unnecessary roughness during a return, and the Ravens still took possession of the football, which leaves 16 picks. (It's possible I'm missing one, but the stat in the tweet isn't sourced at all.)

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

So that leaves eight overturned interceptions we can ascribe to plays that involve referee judgment calls (DPI, roughing the passer, illegal contact, etc). Including the interceptions, that's about one for every 452 passes Mahomes has thrown since 2018.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

It's one of the higher rates I can find, but there's one quarterback who has a higher rate of interceptions overturned by plays that involve a referee's discretion since 2018, and it isn't going to help Bengals fans who are worried about a conspiracy against them.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Joe Burrow has had eight interceptions overturned by penalties since joining the league (two offsides, four DPI, an illegal use of hands, and a defensive holding.) That's six judgment calls across 1,966 pass attempts, or one every 327.7 attempts.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

In other words, Mahomes wasn't even the quarterback who had been bailed out by judgment calls from referees most often in the game he was playing on Sunday, let alone league-wide.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

[mr. tegu]

Is anyone actually surprised jump ball Joe leads this despite missing so many games? Of course not.

Another stat I’m guessing Burrow leads in is yards achieved due to OPI non calls and DPI yards gifted.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

I’ve always thought it was Rodgers. Do you have the numbers?

Agreed, Rodgers was incredible at this. I actually don’t think it’s Mahomes’ strong suit.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

I’ve always thought it was Rodgers. Do you have the numbers?

No, but the fact that Mahomes leads in interceptions by a wide margin on offside calls in his career points to it and his ability to recognize those situations (see OP).

I suppose a touchdown stat would be better to show that though.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by HemiEd

It's so nice to be on this side of the other fans hate.

In all honesty, I feel like Mahomes doesn't get enough calls. Especially on the late hits.

But after watching the Dallas/Saints and Baltimore/Vegas games last Sunday I have decided the officiating is either deplorable or the proliferation of gambling might be having some influence.

Whats the issue in the Saints game? It was effectively over at the half and no point spreads or OU was ever in question.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by wazu

Agreed, Rodgers was incredible at this. I actually don’t think it’s Mahomes’ strong suit.

I think Mahomes is very good at it. Not only the hard count to get the jump, but noticing it’s a free play and trying to make the most of it.

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

No, but the fact that Mahomes leads in interceptions by a wide margin on offside calls in his career points to it and his ability to recognize those situations (see OP).

I suppose a touchdown stat would be better to show that though.

Ah, yeah, I’ve seen the stats during games and Rodgers is far and away the best at maximizing the free play. He’s been doing it longer than Mahomes so I suppose it’s possible Pat is more efficient on a per play basis, but I’d say it’s unlikely. Rodgers is really ****ing good at it.

[Straight, No Chaser]

Thank You Bill Barnwell!

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Imagine if his games were called like end of career Bradys? Holding
and that cheap hands to the face would NEVER be called like it was Sunday. Brady got TWO PIs on balls thrown INTO THE STANDS that lead to TWO cheap TDs against us in a SuperBowl and a cheap Dee offsides that's NEVER called ever from going to another, so the rest of the league can **** off

[Rainbarrel]

People see what they want too, .03% will be changed

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by PatMahomesIsGod

Why not both?

Good point, I think it is now that you mention it.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by DrunkBassGuitar

Which one was the game where the one guy punched another player (who was just standing on the sidelines) and no flag was thrown? BAL/LV?

I don't recall but that is the first time ever seeing that.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Whats the issue in the Saints game? It was effectively over at the half and no point spreads or OU was ever in question.

IMO they weren't making any calls for Dallas early, then it got out of hand. Lots of DPI not called. Lots of offensive line holding not called.

It was like "not today mother ****ers" early. I was saying to myself, there must have been a shit ton of money bet on Dallas after last weeks great showing.

***edit*** of course I could have been looking at it a little from the not so objective side since I had put 5k on both games in the gambling thread.

[ThrobProng]

Bill Barnwell, pussy hound.

[Bearcat]

Probably makes sense that it's Burrow since he's played quite a bit with two WR1s on the roster.

Mahomes does seem to throw it in the direction of a penalty sometimes when the offense is struggling, which can be frustrating to watch.... he'll throw into coverage and immediately want the flag, but that can be tough when the ref doesn't agree and you've just wasted a down.

Granted, it's not nearly as bad as Brady consistently under throwing receivers and getting DPI calls because defenders can't suddenly levitate to avoid contact.

[scho63]

Welcome to being the new #1 hated team in the NFL.

Love it! **** all the crybabies!

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by scho63

Welcome to being the new #1 hated team in the NFL.

Love it! **** all the crybabies!

Yea never thought I'd live to see the day. The refs kissing Mahomes memes are just delicious tears to drink.