Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Inflation at a 40 year high, chip shortage, supply line issues ...and our government is arguing over spending another $3.5 tril and telling you it won't cost jack.

The next few months are not going to be good ones.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I bet some of you are getting your ass handed to you in this small market pullback.

Without a plan, it’s just guessing. With guessing, you’ll just be losing all your gain, even in small market corrections.

I haven't sold a dime. In fact I am starting to piece in more cash. Then again my timeline is 15 years not 15 minutes.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I haven't sold a dime. In fact I am starting to piece in more cash. Then again my timeline is 15 years not 15 minutes.

Same for 90% of my portfolio, I’m still dollar cost averaging and actually dumping a larger sum into my ROTH on this dip.

However, lots of wannabe traders in this thread with no plan. I’m just reminding them they need rules.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by lewdog

I bet some of you are getting your ass handed to you in this small market pullback.

Without a plan, it’s just guessing. With guessing, you’ll just be losing all your gain, even in small market corrections.

I ended up setting SL on most of my penny stocks last week at 15-20%. Several, including ILUS got taken out and now are higher than I sold for. Dammit. Still did good , just hurts to see gains lost. If only there was a way to predict the top.

On the bright side I've been holding 39,000,000 Shiba Inu and it's blowing up today. I have no idea why, it's a stupid coin with no purpose. I guess thats why I bought it. It reminded me of me.

[petegz28]

Short term bottom might be in. Depends on how today finishes but I am currently seeing some signs that the strength of the selling has really come down the last week.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Short term bottom might be in. Depends on how today finishes but I am currently seeing some signs that the strength of the selling has really come down the last week.

What are the markers you use/see to feel that way?

I think we’d all appreciate

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

What are the markers you use/see to feel that way?

I think we’d all appreciate

Number of things....

Stochastic RSI is showing a divergence to price
ATR has probably peaked meaning volatility will come down
Adv\Dec line is not confirming lower low in price
Price is close to support set back in July
3rd wave of a possible ABC retracement
Support level set back on 9/20 is looking to hold for the moment
Volume on this last leg down was lighter than the first leg

Now I say short term as is a short term trading opportunity or a chance to sell into an upcoming rally. We still haven't fully reached the support levels from July and we could easily make another run down to the 200MA

I suspect however a run back up to the 50 day SMA and hopefully start seeing some sideways movement from there.

Now a lot of this can go to shit this afternoon if selling comes roaring in which is why I stated that today's price action is key.

[Pointer19]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Yeah. I’ll join Pointer as a charity case.

A couple points:

1. The Hunts DID squeeze the market. Then they got their pussies wrecked when it came unwound.

2. Just disregard all that shit. Go back and look at posts here from 08-09ish. I think there was a thread in DC about goldbugs or something. People were insane. There were commercials everywhere. It was a joke. And it crashed. Metals are, and have been since we went off the gold standard, are an industrial input commodity. End.

Good points. I just wanna be a pirate.

[Pointer19]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Same for 90% of my portfolio, I’m still dollar cost averaging and actually dumping a larger sum into my ROTH on this dip.

However, lots of wannabe traders in this thread with no plan. I’m just reminding them they need rules.

$250 every paycheck into the Roth to max it out annually regardless of how stocks are doing. I tried timing it a couple years back, only to miss out when it dipped even further.

[Pointer19]

Does the community have thoughts on how the $1T coin would impact the economy? https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...llar-coin-faq/

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Pointer19

Does the community have thoughts on how the $1T coin would impact the economy? https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...llar-coin-faq/

Vending machines will need to get a whole lot bigger.

Other than that, I don't really see how it's different than running a budget deficit and borrowing via treasury bills. It seems like it's manufacturing money out of air, which is what the government does anyway. Maybe it'll increase inflation?

I really know nothing about macroeconomics, so don't listen to me.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Number of things....

Stochastic RSI is showing a divergence to price
ATR has probably peaked meaning volatility will come down
Adv\Dec line is not confirming lower low in price
Price is close to support set back in July
3rd wave of a possible ABC retracement
Support level set back on 9/20 is looking to hold for the moment
Volume on this last leg down was lighter than the first leg

Now I say short term as is a short term trading opportunity or a chance to sell into an upcoming rally. We still haven't fully reached the support levels from July and we could easily make another run down to the 200MA

I suspect however a run back up to the 50 day SMA and hopefully start seeing some sideways movement from there.

Now a lot of this can go to shit this afternoon if selling comes roaring in which is why I stated that today's price action is key.

Do you subscribe to any of those Elliot wave newsletters?

I know a guy that follows them. Nothing makes me want to eat a bullet more than trying to figure out if some move meets all the rules, figuring it all out only to have it do not that, and have some pretentious douche write about how obvious the structure was. LOL.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Do you subscribe to any of those Elliot wave newsletters?

I know a guy that follows them. Nothing makes me want to eat a bullet more than trying to figure out if some move meets all the rules, figuring it all out only to have it do not that, and have some pretentious douche write about how obvious the structure was. LOL.

No. I read a book about 30 years ago titled "The Elliot Wave Principle" and while I believe Elliot Wave Theory is practical it is very hard to use. It is very subjective such as trendlines. However, from a general perspective it is very good to have an understanding and while I don't use it for forecasting, I do think it has a value in hindsight. Meaning it's good to look at what has happened to get a gauge on where you are or might be overall. So maybe a little forecasting but I don't do a lot of the projection stuff. I will slap on some retracements at times just to get a general idea of where the levels are going to be.

[Iconic]

MicroStrategy up almost 10% on the week. Shits like owning a smaller piece of BTC

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Number of things....

Stochastic RSI is showing a divergence to price
ATR has probably peaked meaning volatility will come down
Adv\Dec line is not confirming lower low in price
Price is close to support set back in July
3rd wave of a possible ABC retracement
Support level set back on 9/20 is looking to hold for the moment
Volume on this last leg down was lighter than the first leg

Now I say short term as is a short term trading opportunity or a chance to sell into an upcoming rally. We still haven't fully reached the support levels from July and we could easily make another run down to the 200MA

I suspect however a run back up to the 50 day SMA and hopefully start seeing some sideways movement from there.

Now a lot of this can go to shit this afternoon if selling comes roaring in which is why I stated that today's price action is key.

Well, a little quicker than I expected but we are about to butt up against the 50 day SMA on the SPY. I expect some kind of choppiness over the next couple of weeks as we see what happens with the current down trend.

The strength of the current down trend started showing weakness the last couple of days so we will see if it's a relief rally or if the trend is coming out.