Let's talk about the Bills - AFC Championship Edition

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[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He fits what Buffalo has been doing this year.

Allen standing back there and waiting for the coverage to break down gives Coleman plenty of time to eventually come open. And if it doesn't happen, Allen has the size/speed to buy enough time and toss a YOLO ball for Coleman to fight for.

The issue here is that Allen had 40 drop backs when we played back in November and we didn’t sack him once. Given how good they’ve been at protecting the QB this season, I’d expect that trend to continue. So there’s a good chance Coleman could become an issue in his return.

Coleman would've been a complete non-factor here, IMO, but that doesn't mean he's been a disaster for Buffalo. He's been pretty productive in this bizarre sort of haphazard caveman passing game they've pieced together this year.

Yeah, those types of receivers don’t seem to do well with us. Coleman’s nearest comp to recent Chiefs receivers is basically Hopkins. He’s been good for us in spot duty but I’m not sure even prime D Hop would put up elite numbers here.

Originally Posted by staylor26

I can read just fine. I don't beleive you.

Or maybe I'm giving you too much credit.

I don't know.

But you're the only ****ing reerun I know that could possibly watch both and not see a clear and significant difference.

I bring up stats, you say I’m box score watching. I say he passes my eye test and you say you don’t believe I’ve actually watched him.

What’s the point of this conversation?

Originally Posted by staylor26

I'm not saying Coleman sucks, he's just not a 1st round talent like Virus has tried to argue, and he's absolutely not as good as Worthy. There's so much more room for growth and development with Worthy, whereas Coleman is who he is. He's a WR3, maybe a low end WR2.

Their ceiling is irrelevant in this discussion. We’re comparing them right now.

Originally Posted by Boxer_Chief

Coleman benefits from Josh having 10 seconds to throw in the pocket. I’ve never seen him make an actual wr catch, it’s always deep passes where the defender lost him in time consuming coverage.

Idk, man. Maybe you didn’t watch the Bills much this year.

He’s looked pretty good. Great at the contested catch, strong enough to run through arm tackles for RAC, fast enough to be a legitimate threat, obvious big play ability, big body receiver ideal for quick slants, works to get open after the QB breaks from the pocket..

You don’t just average nearly 20 YPR for no reason. This season will likely be an obvious statistical outlier in that regard, but that’s incredible for a rookie. Any rookie.

[Direckshun]

Assuming the Chiefs can bottle up the run, the Bills passing game is going to be where this game is decided.

Cooper -- Shakir -- Coleman -- Samuel -- Kincaid -- Knox

vs

McDuffie -- Watson -- Williams -- Johnson -- Reid -- Conner

Our linebackers keying on Cook and Ty Johnson. Spags strategically sending blitzes.

It's a tall, tall order. We're as equipped as anyone to deal with it. But it's a tall, tall order.

[smithandrew051]

Coleman has one big play since October. Otherwise, he has done jack shit since the Bills played the Seahawks on 10/27.

After missing 4 games, he has 9 catches for 149 yards and 1 TD over 6 games. 64 of those yards came on his one big play against whatever was left of Detroit’s defense.

If he has a big game it will be the exception to what he’s been recently.

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Assuming the Chiefs can bottle up the run, the Bills passing game is going to be where this game is decided.

Cooper -- Shakir -- Coleman -- Samuel -- Kincaid -- Knox

vs

McDuffie -- Watson -- Williams -- Johnson -- Reid -- Conner

Our linebackers keying on Cook and Ty Johnson. Spags strategically sending blitzes.

It's a tall, tall order. We're as equipped as anyone to deal with it. But it's a tall, tall order.

My biggest worry is even if we blanket their receivers, who is going to spy Allen? He constanly gets key first downs with his legs and it's annoying...

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

My biggest worry is even if we blanket their receivers, who is going to spy Allen? He constanly gets key first downs with his legs and it's annoying...

Since we don't have Willie Gay anymore, I think Jaden Hicks is born for spying Allen.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The issue here is that Allen had 40 drop backs when we played back in November and we didn’t sack him once. Given how good they’ve been at protecting the QB this season, I’d expect that trend to continue. So there’s a good chance Coleman could become an issue in his return.

I don't think we'll play the same style of defense we played in November. At all.

I don't think we'll play the style of defense everyone else has used against Allen. I think we'll be more aggressive.

It's time to come home with your shield or on it -- Spags isn't going to go down watching Allen smile and dial for 5 seconds every time he drops back. He's going to bring heat. And we're going to go out there with more man coverages that force the WRs to win their individual matchups.

And then we're going to hope the LBs are able to keep Allen from having a field day when he sees the DBs backs are turned and tries to get upfield. And maybe force a fumble in there.

I expect Spags is going to make Allen execute. He's going to give him chances by playing a more aggressive style, but he's going to make Allen prove he can get the job done with them. Repeatedly.

We'll give up some big plays to Allen on the ground, IMO. But we're going to make him keep proving that he can do it. I don't expect us to just let him dissect us with a contain rush like we did last time.

Because lets not forget that despite all that, we were literally 3 inches away from Karlaftis forcing a game altering fumble. And that's when we rarely dialed anything up.

Do it often and we'll get to him a time or two. And that may be all it takes.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The issue here is that Allen had 40 drop backs when we played back in November and we didn’t sack him once. Given how good they’ve been at protecting the QB this season, I’d expect that trend to continue. So there’s a good chance Coleman could become an issue in his return.



Yeah, those types of receivers don’t seem to do well with us. Coleman’s nearest comp to recent Chiefs receivers is basically Hopkins. He’s been good for us in spot duty but I’m not sure even prime D Hop would put up elite numbers here.



I bring up stats, you say I’m box score watching. I say he passes my eye test and you say you don’t believe I’ve actually watched him.

What’s the point of this conversation?



Their ceiling is irrelevant in this discussion. We’re comparing them right now.



Idk, man. Maybe you didn’t watch the Bills much this year.

He’s looked pretty good. Great at the contested catch, strong enough to run through arm tackles for RAC, fast enough to be a legitimate threat, obvious big play ability, big body receiver ideal for quick slants, works to get open after the QB breaks from the pocket..

You don’t just average nearly 20 YPR for no reason. This season will likely be an obvious statistical outlier in that regard, but that’s incredible for a rookie. Any rookie.

I brought it up because I was talking in terms of production. Worthy's ceiling jsut this year was clearly 1,000 yards and 10 TDs with all the missed opportunities. Coleman overachieved in terms of production. I don't see that guy ever having 1,000 yards and Worthy should've legit been 1,000 yard guy this year. That's the point.

[smithandrew051]

Who knows? Coleman may well be a great player going forward, but that doesn’t matter for this week.

He clearly has been held in check for a few months now. Maybe an injury? Maybe tape?

Whatever it is, plenty of teams have made him a nonfactor recently.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Nick Jacobs says we didn’t deploy a spy a single time in the November matchup.

Uhhh. Did Spags pull another 2022 Cincy card where he did absolutely nothing in the regular season matchup that he knew they’d use in the playoffs? Effectively rendering it a mostly useless tape?

Yes and most of us watching that game knew they would. I knew from the moment they weren’t putting a spy on Allen that Spags was running things vanilla.

Everyone keeps fearing Josh Allen running. If it’s 3rd and 3 or more Spags is going to put McDuffie on Shakir, Watson on ours we their WR2 is and blitz the shit out of Allen to clog those running lanes and force him to hurry against us.

As much as people hate Nazeeh Johnson, he’s a force on those blitzes bc he’s the second fastest DB on the team running a 4.38. Also a very good tackler.

This is the type of game I think you’ll see the corner blitzes

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

Coleman has one big play since October. Otherwise, he has done jack shit since the Bills played the Seahawks on 10/27.

After missing 4 games, he has 9 catches for 149 yards and 1 TD over 6 games. 64 of those yards came on his one big play against whatever was left of Detroit’s defense.

If he has a big game it will be the exception to what he’s been recently.

Yea, shocker that a lot of his earlier production wasn't sustainable. That's exactly the point I'm trying to make.

[smithandrew051]

I think the intangible side of being 1 game away from the Super Bowl is important this week.

I’m sure Jones and Kelce coast at times throughout the year, and I don’t blame them for it.

Those guys are going to be locked in this week. Every snap. Every detail. They know what awaits.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Yea, shocker that a lot of his earlier production wasn't sustainable. That's exactly the point I'm trying to make.

He may well be dealing with an injury or something, but who cares?

The Chiefs should shut him down like every other team has recently.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

My biggest worry is even if we blanket their receivers, who is going to spy Allen? He constanly gets key first downs with his legs and it's annoying...

They're not going to spy Allen as much as you might think. They have to defend the entire running game, not just Allen. Using a spy too often just opens the defense up to getting burned by RPO's.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Nick Jacobs says we didn’t deploy a spy a single time in the November matchup.

Uhhh. Did Spags pull another 2022 Cincy card where he did absolutely nothing in the regular season matchup that he knew they’d use in the playoffs? Effectively rendering it a mostly useless tape?

Yes. Absolutely.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by smithandrew051

I think the intangible side of being 1 game away from the Super Bowl is important this week.

I’m sure Jones and Kelce coast at times throughout the year, and I don’t blame them for it.

Those guys are going to be locked in this week. Every snap. Every detail. They know what awaits.

Jones health is of some concern to me.

I'm guessing the broadcast showed it, but I saw him on the table a couple of times last game having his hammy/calf worked on. If that things still bothering him, it could easily act up on him at any time.