We haven't argued in a while: nearly every Chiefs podcast is wrong, I think.

[Direckshun]

Spoiler!

Necessary disclaimer #1: What I'm saying right now is what the rest of you are doing: projecting the season and how good this team is.

Necessary disclaimer #2: I may be awfully handsome, but I am not a god. I understand that I am wrong sometimes and may be wrong on this.

Necessary disclaimer #3: I really only care about talking football, and not the assumed upsides and/or downsides of my personality, which you probably don't like.

Almost all the time I spend exercising or working alone or driving, I'm dialing up a Chiefs podcast. I listen to more than most: Time's Ours, Locked On, It's Always Sunny In Chiefs Kingdom, KCSN, 4th and 1, Arrowhead Addict, Arrowhead Pride, Roughing the Kicker. I don't catch all of it but I catch a lot of it.

And this past week, after breaking down the roster, several of these podcasts are, I think, overshooting what the '22 Chiefs may be capable of.

These podcasters -- with the lone exception of Nick Jacobs, whose opinions I find pretty "grounded" -- are all predicting a Super Bowl season. And while that's to be expected of Chiefs-friendly media, it sure as **** makes Chiefs Kingdom toxic by Week 10 as the Chiefs are, say, 5-4 and still trying to get their roster figured out. "We should be the go away favorites for the 1 seed!" we're all being primed to spout in November, when the Chiefs may be trying to just hold onto the AFCW. I just listened to three straight Chiefs podcasts predict the Super Bowl unanimously among their hosts, including KC Lab on KCSN, which is normally more grounded. Maybe Kissel's infected them, I don't know.

I appreciate optimism, but routinely predicting a 13-4 or 14-3 schedule against a bear of a calendar with a rookie secondary and a DL held together with scotch tape is irresponsible. Argue all you want that podcasts have no responsibility, and legally you're right. But if you want to be seen as credible, then c'mon now. Anchor yourselves.

I volunteer as tribute as the Chiefs fan on this board who thinks the Chiefs are going to be very, very good this year but on the outside looking in when it comes to the Super Bowl. Pat Kirwan is one of my favorite analysts and he famously (to me) said on Moving the Chains that "you get two ifs, and that's it." And I think this team exceeds two ifs before we're just pie-in-the-sky dreaming.

Mahomes and Reid are Mahomes and Reid. They are incredible, and when they're clicking, unstoppable. Kelce is a top 3 TE all time. JuJu, Watson, McKinnon, Fortson all have a good rapport with him right now. But it is not yet clear to me that this receiving corps can improve or even match the incredible work Tyreek put in last year. Coming as a guy who hates Tyreek's guts as a human being, there's no question he is just a cheat code who can do things nobody else can do and that there are few answers for. I think the logic of having a team with a ton of options for Mahomes makes sense. But this team is going to have to give MVS a lot of snaps to justify his contract, and I'm not high on him. Skyy and Mecole are a rookie and Mecole. JuJu looks like a damn steal, but all these things in the aggregate... I'm not sure they match what Hill did.

It's possible though, because Mahomes and Reid.

The secondary has a lot of promise, but we're completely lying to ourselves about them. This is a roster corps that we know is built with rookies, and we consistently, collectively know will have "growing pains" -- which is the same thing these podcasters recognize while predicting 13-win seasons. If you're winning 13 games, you're not having growing pains!

Spags is a god at taking a pretty talented secondary and making it look great, so that's an area I know we'll be set at long-term. But growing pains means this secondary is going to have embarrassing blown coverages and bad games that will rack up a couple more losses than they should. I think that Trent McDuffie's camp and preseason has shown a lot of promise that I was skeptical of. It's still undeniable that he's had some bumps along the way and that's going to continue as he develops in live games. Watson and Williams look really good as rookies -- they're going to still get roasted by the AFCW's gamut of excellent receivers. The learning curve can only curve up so fast.

It's possible they're fine, though, because Spags.

But those aren't the two things I think will be really problematic for the team.

First, I don't see solutions for this DL, unless Karlaftis is a truly game-changing talent, which is somebody else than he's shown so far, immediately out of the gate. Aside from Karlaftis (who I think is going to be a really great rookie but is already earning predictions to beat Derrick Thomas' record), the DE position is just not very good. Even Karlaftis, who put some great snaps on tape, is still miles away from the ceiling he's going to reach (that's not a criticism, I don't think: he's a rookie). I have no faith in Clark, I am extremely reticent about the Achilles that Dunlap has, as are the Chiefs who kept 6 DEs just to make sure we'll have bodies. Danna is a rotational guy who's fine. We should have found a way to land Robert Quinn.

The DT position has taken a step backward, I think. We all dumped on Jarran Reed, who didn't justify his contract last year, but he offered some passrushing with good run defense, a combo none of our other DTs have, other than Chris Jones, who is amazing. Nnadi got pushed around a bit in the preseason and offers no passrush, Wharton is always going to be who he is, and Saunders remains a frustrating question mark. Saunders did play well in the preseason, which... I'll just say if Saunders reaches his potential, our DL is going to wreck people. But I've been saying that for a year now.

Thank god our linebackers are amazing, because that will make up for some of the deficiencies of the DTs in front of them. We will not be a bottom 5 rush defense, but we could very realistically be a bottom third unit who Buffalo, Ravens, and Broncos run right over. And our passrush is going to be right where it was last year.

The other big problem I have is out of the Chiefs control: the schedule is just brutal. We face a Chargers team that may very well be better than us, plus Tom Brady in the first four weeks. We play both of the Super Bowl contenders. We play everybody who was in the conference championship games. I would personally argue that the 2022 AFC West is the best division we've ever seen (even better than the 2021 NFC West initially looked and mostly was). And there's a stretch we play three road games consecutively -- which I don't think is very common. I personally struggle to recall the last time we did that? My memory fails me sometimes.

The Chargers loaded up their DL and secondary, finally have an OL and a ton of weapons. The Raiders I'm never super worried about but Adams vs. a rookie secondary will be interesting. The Bills have the best roster in the league right now and I would argue the Bengals got better. I'm not super worried about Russell Wilson but that Broncos team may click. We're going to have to beat some combo of the Chargers, Bills, and Bengals to get to the Super Bowl. Any two of them is a murderer's row.

TLR:

Chiefs podcasters are high on their own supply, overlooking problems both manageable and less manageable, to predict the Chiefs are Super Bowl shoo-ins. The Chiefs have a major problem at DL which I fear is going to be their Achilles all season, and a brutal schedule that will take more losses from the team than perhaps this roster deserves. I also have some comparably minor concerns: the rookie secondary, which I think will cost us games, and apparently all of these podcasts think we can replace Hill in the aggregate, whereas I'm not so sure.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. Let's argue.

[Straight, No Chaser]

I’m a bit worried about CEH and a few of the new guys staying healthy —JuJu especially. Time to find out. Even with starters out, Patrick can keep them in games. Best team in AFC West.

I think they can go 3-0 to start.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by Wilson8

OK, the threads that we have on the 2022 KC roster are buried and this thread is about the Chiefs and is active. Let me ask some quick questions.

What the Hell is currently going on with the KC roster?

We heard that Elijah Lee was going to be on the Practice Squad but that was only temporary. He would soon be on the 53.

We heard that Blake Bell was going on IR so he could heal. Are they waiting on doctor reports on him?

Some speculated that Malik Herring was going on IR. After all the Chiefs kept 6 DEs. If so, do they bring back DT Danny Shelton?

Some have speculated that a free agent was still in the works.

Andy Reid said they were going to practice a week and then they were going to take some time off. It seems like Brett's office has closed down too.

It seems like the Chiefs also need to renegotiate some contracts. Overthecap.com shows the Chiefs with the 5th worst cap space with only $1,622,040.

Sorry if I sidetrack this thread for a couple of posts, but what is going on and why the delay?

Damn It! I am ready for some football and want to know who is on this team.

Inquiring minds want to know.

Staying with the theme of this post, is Lee still the projected starter week 1? The whole situation surrounding Lee has been a head scratcher.

[DrunkBassGuitar]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

The first thing to pop up on my reddit feed was an NFL bold prediction thread, and the OP's bold prediction is the Chiefs don't make the playoffs, heh.

The Chiefs only missed the playoffs once under Andy Reid all the way back in 2014 and the worst they've finished is second in the AFCW lol

[DrunkBassGuitar]

the chiefs still have the best QB and coach in the NFL, they're still a top tier team and a contender even if this ends up being a "down year"

[Chiefnj2]

Biggest concerns with the team:
1. An injury to a staring OL. The team has virtually no depth on the line.
2. Big play % will go way down without Hill making shootouts much harder.
3. This ties into #2, young secondary will have growing pains leading to some shootouts.
4. Pass rush.
5. Juju’s health.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I think it's 50/50 we make it to the AFCCG.

Mahomes on a mission is hard to bet against, but even if we're clicking on all cylinders, goddamn the Chargers/Bills/Bengals look good.

I think Mahomes will be on a mission to erase last years 2nd half collapse against the Bengals.

But, shit happens in a football game, a bounce of the ball, a slight juggle, a missed block etc. are just a few of the hundreds of things that turn a game.

One "chance play" that wasted our SB championship occurred during Mahomes first year. We would have killed the Rams that year. Won a SB. But, that didn't happened because a DL not lining up correctly at the snap.

These other AFC teams are good. We will have to play at our best to get another championship. Anything less, we are going home in the playoffs.

[Best22]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Definitely foresee some struggles from both the offense and defense to start the season. Not surprising what with all the new faces, particularly all the rookies that are on the roster.

On defense and offense all these new guys and young players are going to have to get comfortable with the playbooks and each other. This was the case in 2019 as well as 2020? Whatever. It took some time, but eventually they got in the groove and their play dramatically improved.

No real reason to think history won't repeat itself to some extent this season. The defense will be up and down through the first half of the season or so, and they'll be playing an abbreviated playbook until everyone gets on the same page. Ditto the offense. It just should click quicker for the offense this time around, with the overall higher quality of the skill players.

But add in the fact that KC is playing 5(?) playoff teams from last season in the first 7 weeks, including four teams that last season owned a top-10 offense last season, and it could be tough sledding for the Chiefs until the bye.

AZ had a top-10 offense last year, and while I'm very optimistic about the defense going into this season, in recent memory the Chiefs have been pretty not good against mobile QBs, and Kyler is among the elite in that category.

Then we get LAC, now with another elite pass rusher in Khalil. And Herbert's no slouch in either passing or running either. Keenan Allen's coming off a career-type year, Ekeler looks to be healthy, M. Williams set a personal best in several categories in 2021.

Then the only cakewalk game is vs. IND, followed by the Bucs (beat us in the SB last we met), LAR with D. Adams, the Bills (that would've beaten us in the playoffs last season except for a coin flip), and the 49ers, that were in the process of beating KC in the SB, until the last 7 minutes happened.

Realistically, if the Chiefs can get to the bye 4-3, even 3-4, I do like our chances down the stretch. The schedule does ease up a bit what with TEN, JAX, HOU and SEA as a bit of a cushion. 11-6 or 12-5 seems pretty doable.

Tennessee and Indianapolis are not cakewalks

That’s just how tough our schedule is. We have Seattle, Houston, and Jacksonville as our only “gimmes”

[Best22]

We’ll be fine though

[Marcellus]

Almost like OP forgot how much a shit show our defense was last year for the first half of the season and Mahomes had a huge slump mid season and we were still one play from the SB.

It would be tough for our defense to be as bad as it was start of
Last year if they tried.

[Bowser]

Remember all those years Green Bay had, outside of Aaron Rodgers, what could be argued as the very definition of average talent across the board, and was still a perennial playoff contender?

Now compare this Chiefs team's talent minus Mahomes to those Packer teams.

[duncan_idaho]

Pros for KC

Determined/extra motivated Mahomes
Second year for OL together
Deeper WR corps with much better threats at spots 2-4
Significant increase in defense team speed
Replacing Ben Niemann (Bolton/Gay), Anthony Hitchens (Bolton/Gay) and Sorenson (Cook/Bush) snaps on D

Cons for KC
Thin/young CB group
DT/DL depth

Questions for KC
Does someone on the DL outperform current expectations?

if one of Clark or Saunders is improved from last year, that goes a long way to answering this one. It’s reasonable to expect more from Dunlap/Karlaftis than Danna/Ingram/Okafor, but without one more step up from someone it doesn’t move the needle as much as you’d like.

Does KC continue to adjust to 2-deep coverages?
the Chiefs made good adjustments in the second half of 2021 and have much better WR personnel at the 2-4 spots, which bodes well. Can they get consistent, dangerous production from the run game, though? That’s the real key.

How does the general youth movement on D perform in a complicated scheme?

on paper, the Chiefs D is a lot faster, more athletic, and has upgrades at a bunch of spots. But how well do these guys plug in when it’s for real?

All in all, I’m optimistic but certainly see how that optimism could turn out to be too high.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Biggest concerns with the team:
1. An injury to a staring OL. The team has virtually no depth on the line.
2. Big play % will go way down without Hill making shootouts much harder.
3. This ties into #2, young secondary will have growing pains leading to some shootouts.
4. Pass rush.
5. Juju’s health.

Does any team in the NFL have great proven OL depth? Or is it all young guys and/or washed ups?

It's really rare to go through a season with LDT as your backup G. You don't see that often. What the Chiefs have right now is about normal in terms of OL depth.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Does any team in the NFL have great proven OL depth? Or is it all young guys and/or washed ups?

It's really rare to go through a season with LDT as your backup G. You don't see that often. What the Chiefs have right now is about normal in terms of OL depth.

Most teams are lucky to have a legit #1 starter. A good backup? Doesn’t exist or they would be on another team as a starter.

King Carls “best 53 roster” plan was a mistake and no one will ever attempt that again. **** your King Carl!

[ThyKingdomCome15]

This this the best TEAM the Chiefs have ever fielded. No we don't have Sammy Watkins or Tyreek Hill. But we don't have Orlando Scandrick or the Terrence Mitchell in the secondary either. We may not have a Kareem Hunt in the backfield but we don't have Ben Niemann taking a roster spot either. Add in the growth of Mahomes as a QB/leader and what you have is the best TEAM in franchise history. Time to set the NFL world on fire.

[RealSNR]

Some might say, "The Chiefs are trapped in a conference with a bunch of top tier QBs"

I say, "A bunch of top tier QBs are trapped in a conference with the Chiefs."