Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by ChiliConCarnage

Yeah, housing starts and jobs (horrible) had bad beats recently. GDP revisions down. The number of people reporting they couldn't work due to covid dropped from 3.7 million to 2.8. It seems like that's a good sign if it keeps up.

I don't know what'll happen with a lot of the supply/demand imbalances. Like Oil futures going sub-zero I'm sure we'll continue to see interesting stuff. They are a risk to stifling growth at too high of rates.

I guess I only see the economy beating for the next few quarters. I mean, the yoy comps are insanely low. Halfcan was implying a major economic correction. We're going to start doing worse than last year? I can't believe that, we're Jamaal Charles competing in the special olympics right now in yoy comps.

I believe in the US consumer spending. There is supposedly a ton of money trapped in checking/savings accounts. The direct monthly payments for child tax credits will start going out this summer. I can't imagine that won't get spent by a huge chunk of the population.

I find inflation to be the biggest concern. I drove home tonight listening to commercials of companies paying to advertise that they'd give $17 an hour to new entry level warehouse employees. This might be a bias, my worth is mostly in stocks, if the economy grows slower that hasn't worked so bad for me.. less so if inflation forces huge interest rate increases. 40x revs SaaS companies would freefall

Yeah, the big key is interest rate risk. Last time the Fed suggested they might raise interest rates in a few quarters the stock market tanked. Hard. That's probably the most impactful for the discussions here.

Not that I'm disagreeing, but where are you reading that there is a lot of liquidity tied up in checking and savings accounts? My wife doesn't seem to have trouble finding places to dump my cash.

If the velocity of money were to improve that would definitely help.

The wild volatility in certain places, isn't good for anyone. That stifles a lot of healthy economic activity. FFS notorious told me plywood is more expensive than the oak he's laying down. What the holy hell? There has to be several houses that can't be built now. Surely a contractor or 500 that has went out of business on such madness. That shit needs to get un****ed post haste.

[BWillie]

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

[philfree]

Originally Posted by BWillie

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

https://money.usnews.com/money/retir...far-it-will-go

Becoming a millionaire seems like a surefire way to live comfortably. However, if you are no longer working, just how long will a million dollars last in retirement?

The answer is about 20 years, according to Brent Lipschultz, partner with accounting and advisory firm EisnerAmper in New York City. To come to that conclusion, Lipschultz used data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shows those age 65 and older have average annual expenses of approximately $50,000. He also assumed inflation would be 2.9%, investments would earn 4% each year and a person's state and federal tax rates would be 30% combined.

"A million dollars seems like a lot, but in today's world, it's not a lot of money," Lipschultz notes. He calculates a retiree needs to save an additional $765,000 to fully fund a 35-year retirement.

However, these are average figures, and your personal situation

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by BWillie

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

Man, that number would have to be big. It would have to be in the neighborhood of 100M in order to live off the returns in 40 years.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Man, that number would have to be big. It would have to be in the neighborhood of 100M in order to live off the returns in 40 years.

I think I could do it with 3M. Assuming I don't live past 70, which I wont.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by philfree

https://money.usnews.com/money/retir...far-it-will-go

Becoming a millionaire seems like a surefire way to live comfortably. However, if you are no longer working, just how long will a million dollars last in retirement?

The answer is about 20 years, according to Brent Lipschultz, partner with accounting and advisory firm EisnerAmper in New York City. To come to that conclusion, Lipschultz used data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shows those age 65 and older have average annual expenses of approximately $50,000. He also assumed inflation would be 2.9%, investments would earn 4% each year and a person's state and federal tax rates would be 30% combined.

"A million dollars seems like a lot, but in today's world, it's not a lot of money," Lipschultz notes. He calculates a retiree needs to save an additional $765,000 to fully fund a 35-year retirement.

However, these are average figures, and your personal situation

True...it seems like a lot when you are a kid....

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I think I could do it with 3M. Assuming I don't live past 70, which I wont.

If you get a 5% return thats 150K. Think about what 150K was when you were a kid and what 150K is now. You can assume a similarish trend. Then look at health care costs, which will exponentially increase as you age.

I think a guy could do it. But I wouldn’t feel confident at all. Last thing you want to do is go back to work at 60 because ****, you ran out.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

If you get a 5% return thats 150K. Think about what 150K was when you were a kid and what 150K is now. You can assume a similarish trend. Then look at health care costs, which will exponentially increase as you age.

I think a guy could do it. But I wouldn’t feel confident at all. Last thing you want to do is go back to work at 60 because ****, you ran out.

Meh. I'd just watch Murder She Wrote & Wheel of Fortune. I don't really care what my quality of life is once I'm 60. It's going to suck regardless.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Meh. I'd just watch Murder She Wrote & Wheel of Fortune. I don't really care what my quality of life is once I'm 60. It's going to suck regardless.

Believe me. I know poor people that are too old to work. You don’t want that noise.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

Believe me. I know poor people that are too old to work. You don’t want that noise.

I'll come detassle for you or something when I run out of money. Full circle to my youth.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by BWillie

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

A lot depends on your expenses. I did an extensive analysis last year, and to retire at 60, and taking into account inflation and social security and assuming a conservative investment philosophy, I would need 28 times my household expenditures to live at my current lifestyle into my 90s. To retire at 40, you'd need more than double that, plus your social security payments would be smaller. My hunch is that you'd need about 65 to 70 times your annual expenses.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by BWillie

How much money does one need to retire before 40? What's the number you guys are looking for to "retire" and how does it change based on age?

If you bought 1 million dollar worth of (MAIN) it pays a monthly dividend of .205 per share at $41 /share it would give you a monthly income of $4885
a 2 million dollar stake would get you $9770

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

A lot depends on your expenses. I did an extensive analysis last year, and to retire at 60, and taking into account inflation and social security and assuming a conservative investment philosophy, I would need 28 times my household expenditures to live at my current lifestyle into my 90s. To retire at 40, you'd need more than double that, plus your social security payments would be smaller. My hunch is that you'd need about 65 to 70 times your annual expenses.

Along the same thought lines here. I’d say 60x your annual gross income because remember at a young age you’ll be living off “income” that’s all taxed as you can’t tap things like a ROTH yet.

On the same note for people retiring early, do what you can to make earned income in the year to max your ROTH. Just $6k or $7k if over 50. This will allow you to draw on something not taxable once you hit the right age. Is a great way to drop tax brackets when you’re older.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

If you bought 1 million dollar worth of (MAIN) it pays a monthly dividend of .205 per share at $41 /share it would give you a monthly income of $4885
a 2 million dollar stake would get you $9770

Dividends are great until they aren’t.

AT&T about to cut theirs in half. Also, if you still lag a market index because they pay a dividend but the stock price rarely moves, you’re coming out behind. Dividends are paid off the share price, they aren’t something “extra.” A stock paying 5% dividend with a share price that never moves is worse than owing an index. Plenty of these are out there but people get so fixated on a dividend like it’s “free money.”

[banyon]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Dividends are great until they aren’t.

AT&T about to cut theirs in half. Also, if you still lag a market index because they pay a dividend but the stock price rarely moves, you’re coming out behind. Dividends are paid off the share price, they aren’t something “extra.” A stock paying 5% dividend with a share price that never moves is worse than owing an index. Plenty of these are out there but people get so fixated on a dividend like it’s “free money.”

If your view is a relatively sideways market for a while, what do you think of a strategy of selling ITM covered calls on stocks with dividend dates coming up and just rolling those over until the market picks up?