We haven't argued in a while: nearly every Chiefs podcast is wrong, I think.

[Direckshun]

Spoiler!

Necessary disclaimer #1: What I'm saying right now is what the rest of you are doing: projecting the season and how good this team is.

Necessary disclaimer #2: I may be awfully handsome, but I am not a god. I understand that I am wrong sometimes and may be wrong on this.

Necessary disclaimer #3: I really only care about talking football, and not the assumed upsides and/or downsides of my personality, which you probably don't like.

Almost all the time I spend exercising or working alone or driving, I'm dialing up a Chiefs podcast. I listen to more than most: Time's Ours, Locked On, It's Always Sunny In Chiefs Kingdom, KCSN, 4th and 1, Arrowhead Addict, Arrowhead Pride, Roughing the Kicker. I don't catch all of it but I catch a lot of it.

And this past week, after breaking down the roster, several of these podcasts are, I think, overshooting what the '22 Chiefs may be capable of.

These podcasters -- with the lone exception of Nick Jacobs, whose opinions I find pretty "grounded" -- are all predicting a Super Bowl season. And while that's to be expected of Chiefs-friendly media, it sure as **** makes Chiefs Kingdom toxic by Week 10 as the Chiefs are, say, 5-4 and still trying to get their roster figured out. "We should be the go away favorites for the 1 seed!" we're all being primed to spout in November, when the Chiefs may be trying to just hold onto the AFCW. I just listened to three straight Chiefs podcasts predict the Super Bowl unanimously among their hosts, including KC Lab on KCSN, which is normally more grounded. Maybe Kissel's infected them, I don't know.

I appreciate optimism, but routinely predicting a 13-4 or 14-3 schedule against a bear of a calendar with a rookie secondary and a DL held together with scotch tape is irresponsible. Argue all you want that podcasts have no responsibility, and legally you're right. But if you want to be seen as credible, then c'mon now. Anchor yourselves.

I volunteer as tribute as the Chiefs fan on this board who thinks the Chiefs are going to be very, very good this year but on the outside looking in when it comes to the Super Bowl. Pat Kirwan is one of my favorite analysts and he famously (to me) said on Moving the Chains that "you get two ifs, and that's it." And I think this team exceeds two ifs before we're just pie-in-the-sky dreaming.

Mahomes and Reid are Mahomes and Reid. They are incredible, and when they're clicking, unstoppable. Kelce is a top 3 TE all time. JuJu, Watson, McKinnon, Fortson all have a good rapport with him right now. But it is not yet clear to me that this receiving corps can improve or even match the incredible work Tyreek put in last year. Coming as a guy who hates Tyreek's guts as a human being, there's no question he is just a cheat code who can do things nobody else can do and that there are few answers for. I think the logic of having a team with a ton of options for Mahomes makes sense. But this team is going to have to give MVS a lot of snaps to justify his contract, and I'm not high on him. Skyy and Mecole are a rookie and Mecole. JuJu looks like a damn steal, but all these things in the aggregate... I'm not sure they match what Hill did.

It's possible though, because Mahomes and Reid.

The secondary has a lot of promise, but we're completely lying to ourselves about them. This is a roster corps that we know is built with rookies, and we consistently, collectively know will have "growing pains" -- which is the same thing these podcasters recognize while predicting 13-win seasons. If you're winning 13 games, you're not having growing pains!

Spags is a god at taking a pretty talented secondary and making it look great, so that's an area I know we'll be set at long-term. But growing pains means this secondary is going to have embarrassing blown coverages and bad games that will rack up a couple more losses than they should. I think that Trent McDuffie's camp and preseason has shown a lot of promise that I was skeptical of. It's still undeniable that he's had some bumps along the way and that's going to continue as he develops in live games. Watson and Williams look really good as rookies -- they're going to still get roasted by the AFCW's gamut of excellent receivers. The learning curve can only curve up so fast.

It's possible they're fine, though, because Spags.

But those aren't the two things I think will be really problematic for the team.

First, I don't see solutions for this DL, unless Karlaftis is a truly game-changing talent, which is somebody else than he's shown so far, immediately out of the gate. Aside from Karlaftis (who I think is going to be a really great rookie but is already earning predictions to beat Derrick Thomas' record), the DE position is just not very good. Even Karlaftis, who put some great snaps on tape, is still miles away from the ceiling he's going to reach (that's not a criticism, I don't think: he's a rookie). I have no faith in Clark, I am extremely reticent about the Achilles that Dunlap has, as are the Chiefs who kept 6 DEs just to make sure we'll have bodies. Danna is a rotational guy who's fine. We should have found a way to land Robert Quinn.

The DT position has taken a step backward, I think. We all dumped on Jarran Reed, who didn't justify his contract last year, but he offered some passrushing with good run defense, a combo none of our other DTs have, other than Chris Jones, who is amazing. Nnadi got pushed around a bit in the preseason and offers no passrush, Wharton is always going to be who he is, and Saunders remains a frustrating question mark. Saunders did play well in the preseason, which... I'll just say if Saunders reaches his potential, our DL is going to wreck people. But I've been saying that for a year now.

Thank god our linebackers are amazing, because that will make up for some of the deficiencies of the DTs in front of them. We will not be a bottom 5 rush defense, but we could very realistically be a bottom third unit who Buffalo, Ravens, and Broncos run right over. And our passrush is going to be right where it was last year.

The other big problem I have is out of the Chiefs control: the schedule is just brutal. We face a Chargers team that may very well be better than us, plus Tom Brady in the first four weeks. We play both of the Super Bowl contenders. We play everybody who was in the conference championship games. I would personally argue that the 2022 AFC West is the best division we've ever seen (even better than the 2021 NFC West initially looked and mostly was). And there's a stretch we play three road games consecutively -- which I don't think is very common. I personally struggle to recall the last time we did that? My memory fails me sometimes.

The Chargers loaded up their DL and secondary, finally have an OL and a ton of weapons. The Raiders I'm never super worried about but Adams vs. a rookie secondary will be interesting. The Bills have the best roster in the league right now and I would argue the Bengals got better. I'm not super worried about Russell Wilson but that Broncos team may click. We're going to have to beat some combo of the Chargers, Bills, and Bengals to get to the Super Bowl. Any two of them is a murderer's row.

TLR:

Chiefs podcasters are high on their own supply, overlooking problems both manageable and less manageable, to predict the Chiefs are Super Bowl shoo-ins. The Chiefs have a major problem at DL which I fear is going to be their Achilles all season, and a brutal schedule that will take more losses from the team than perhaps this roster deserves. I also have some comparably minor concerns: the rookie secondary, which I think will cost us games, and apparently all of these podcasts think we can replace Hill in the aggregate, whereas I'm not so sure.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. Let's argue.

[gold_and_red]

KC could field a poorer record and still win the AFC. If Cincy could win two road playoff games last year then anything is possible especially with Mahomes. It all depends on how teams look in Dec/Jan.

[Red Dawg]

The AFC is rough right now. We need the pass rush to show up in big games. We have the toughest schedule any team has ever had. If they don't it will be very tough to win it all. Defense still matters that why Faiders and Chargers paid big bucks for it.

[Wilson8]

Originally Posted by FAX

IMHO, the success (or lack thereof) of the season rests on the first 6 games.

If we make it through that with a winning record, I think we'll be okay.

So let's make sure that we handle the Game Day Thread-Things appropriately.

FAX

Completely agree!!!

Who's in charge of that? Who's the backup and the backup to the backup?

We don't want any mistakes. If you get a finger pull or something during practice, be sure to have the trainer take a look.

[threebag]

We had a poll last year and the winner didn’t get to do it because some attention whore lost the Whit for us. I think we go with big nasty KC nut, he’s a winner and The Catch would like to taste his babies

[threebag]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Sticking to things you know well, huh? I mean, don't strain your tiny little brain too hard.

Good, I was wondering if you would know I was talking to you. Maybe she’ll let me punt that pussy like she’s 17

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi

All I see is 17-0

The Chiefs will be favored in every single game they play JR. It is possible they actually will go undefeated.

[ChiefBlueCFC]

Go my favorite sports team, THE CHIEFS OF KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI!!!

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by srvy

I've diligently taken field notes for over 40 years as a land surveyor. But never had any reason to take notes in a profession I'm not qualified for.

My guess is Noone is paying you to take notes at a football camp. So you most likely looked like an idiot.

Sent from my SM-G986U1 using Tapatalk

Check necessary disclaimer #3 in the OP.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Wilson8

Each NFL team will be committing everything they can to win against KC. It's not going to be easy.

From the September 11th, Arizona Cardinals to the January 8th, Los Vegas Raiders the games the NFL plays KC will be the most important contest of the year for the team opposing us. That is the problem with having the success that the Chiefs have had. Every team wants and needs to bring Kansas City down. Hell, the whole NFL wants the Chiefs to be beaten by the Chargers, the Raiders, the Bills, etc...

The Chiefs are a BETTER team than they were last year but what they have to have is a total buy in from each Chiefs player that each play is important and the Chiefs need them to perform. Unfortunately, KC in the past has developed a culture within SOME players where they would wait for Patrick Mahomes to ride in and save the day. It was why bust my butt. We will win this game. The few times that Patrick has been injured in the past two years, you see a renewed charge by KC players to win.

The Chiefs need to know that the NFL is after them and they better be ready for it. The Chiefs need that type of player effort because that's what other teams will be throwing at us.

Listen to this man.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Carr4MVP

Congratulations, OP.

You discovered that podcasts use outlandish claims to drive up viewership. Credibility means nothing; it is about gaining attention. Folks claim to want solid commentary. They don't. They want optimistic outlooks and entertainment. They want hot takes.

I would contend that these people are seeking short term highs and long term misery.

[lewdog]

Ceiling 12-5 because the schedule is so tough.

Floor 9-8 because although we are young, we still have a roster that’s got plenty of talent.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Have you ever gone back to check notes on how right or wrong you were on certain players, season outcomes, etc?

Yeah, all the time — well not what I’ve scribbled. I end up posting it here and then chuck the paper. Been right a ton, been wrong a ton. Roughly half the forum is saying the same shit about me now that they were saying last year when I predicted Chris Jones at DE would stink.

But stuff I got wrong is more fun, so:

I liked Aaron Parker a ton as a practice squad guy, but he was among the first cuts. I sneaky-liked Austin Edwards at DT but he got cut early too. Very early. Fountain technically made the team, but I believe I meant the 53.

That’s all the returns we have on my silly training camp prediction statements for this year, so far.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

Imagine sitting around listening to podcasts all day so you can find one that says we won't be good.

LOL Wow. Swing and a miss.

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

What's the use of that kind of fandom if you aren't optimistic about a team that has been to the AFC championship four years in a row coached by Reid and helmed by Mahomes?

I am optimistic! I think the Chiefs have Super Bowl odds this year!

I just am not as optimistic as some of these dudes are.

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

Because you anticipate injuries???? Seriously? That's some world class pessimism, GTFO with that nonsense.

I anticipate exactly two injuries: Frank Clark will miss games due to monkeypox or something because he always does, and Dunlap has an Achilles.

Everything else after that is a surprise to me.

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

Nobody wants to read this shit. Go cry into your wet blanket alone in the basement.

You may go review the unnecessary disclaimer #3 in the OP.

[Kiimo]

Hey man you asked us to argue

[Megatron96]

Definitely foresee some struggles from both the offense and defense to start the season. Not surprising what with all the new faces, particularly all the rookies that are on the roster.

On defense and offense all these new guys and young players are going to have to get comfortable with the playbooks and each other. This was the case in 2019 as well as 2020? Whatever. It took some time, but eventually they got in the groove and their play dramatically improved.

No real reason to think history won't repeat itself to some extent this season. The defense will be up and down through the first half of the season or so, and they'll be playing an abbreviated playbook until everyone gets on the same page. Ditto the offense. It just should click quicker for the offense this time around, with the overall higher quality of the skill players.

But add in the fact that KC is playing 5(?) playoff teams from last season in the first 7 weeks, including four teams that last season owned a top-10 offense last season, and it could be tough sledding for the Chiefs until the bye.

AZ had a top-10 offense last year, and while I'm very optimistic about the defense going into this season, in recent memory the Chiefs have been pretty not good against mobile QBs, and Kyler is among the elite in that category.

Then we get LAC, now with another elite pass rusher in Khalil. And Herbert's no slouch in either passing or running either. Keenan Allen's coming off a career-type year, Ekeler looks to be healthy, M. Williams set a personal best in several categories in 2021.

Then the only cakewalk game is vs. IND, followed by the Bucs (beat us in the SB last we met), LAR with D. Adams, the Bills (that would've beaten us in the playoffs last season except for a coin flip), and the 49ers, that were in the process of beating KC in the SB, until the last 7 minutes happened.

Realistically, if the Chiefs can get to the bye 4-3, even 3-4, I do like our chances down the stretch. The schedule does ease up a bit what with TEN, JAX, HOU and SEA as a bit of a cushion. 11-6 or 12-5 seems pretty doable.