Cardinals ***Official 2021 STL Cardinals Thread*** - Page 30

**BigRedChief** · 05:21 PM

2021 Opening Day Lineup

Spoiler!

For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year.....

2020 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=329273
2019 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239
2018 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812
2012 Thread
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=254619
etc.
All the way back to 2006 WS
https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812

**BigRedChief** · 10-07-2021, 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

Having Kolten Wong might have helped last night, but the FO is going to continue selling the notion of COVID/expenses.

His replacement is way down list of what our problems were/are

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rams Fan

The Cardinals have a shit ton of money coming off the books. If they do not invest in the IF, rotation, and bullpen and instead seek having internal options fill those holes-like putting Liberatore in the rotation when he may not be ready or settle with putting him in the bullpen or having the corpses of Lester and Happ return-something is terribly wrong.

I have no confidence they’ll address their needs at all and view the WC as a way to sell to the fan base that this team is good and competitive.

****.

I agree. It's north of $40 million coming off the books. Need a good bat at SS and a top quality pitcher this off season with that money.

Rams Fan · 10-07-2021, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

His replacement is way down list of what our problems were/are
I agree. It's north of $40 million coming off the books. Need a good bat at SS and a top quality pitcher this off season with that money.

I have no complaints with Edman, but if Wong was kept he’d be playing SS while DeJong was sucking ass.

I like Sosa, but he shouldn’t be starting.

BWillie · 10-07-2021, 07:53 AM

Nice run Cards, but sickening the Dodgers even had to play in a wildcard game. They were one game away from having the best record in baseball. Just ridiculous. Glad they made it.

duncan_idaho · 10-07-2021, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

You don't get it because you think he was good this year.

You say he was bad last year, but good this year? The only thing he did better this year was be fortunate to not have a worse ERA. He had a 3.22 ERA when he was expected to have a 4.86. Every single advanced metric is as bad or worse than it was last year. He doubled up his IP from last season which amounted to 0.3 fWAR over what you say was a bad year. Ya... he was amazing this year.

He was really good for 1.5 seasons 2 years ago. You know who else had a run like that? Jake Arrieta.

Would I take Flaherty right now? Absolutely. But only because like you mentioned he's 25 years old and he has shown at his peak what he can be. But he hasn't been that in 2 years and injuries aside, if he comes out looking like a 2 fWAR pitcher again next year, I would probably think about seeing what teams would be willing to trade for him, if he was on my team.

Flaherty clearly wasn't right when he returned from his injury. He made it through a few starts and then basically got shut down as he struggled.

He was excellent in April and May. His peripherals for that time period don't show any major deviations from his 2019 and 2018 seasons, especially for a sample of that size.

His performance - even looking at FIP-, which is a very advanced metric and a great way to compare guys year-over-year, he was a top 30 SP in baseball and likely would have turned in a 3 win season. Gotta apply some context.

Acting like a top 50 prospect becoming a top 30 SP in MLB by the age of 25 is anything less than a success is just goofy.

jd1020 · 10-07-2021, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Flaherty clearly wasn't right when he returned from his injury. He made it through a few starts and then basically got shut down as he struggled.

He was excellent in April and May. His peripherals for that time period don't show any major deviations from his 2019 and 2018 seasons, especially for a sample of that size.

His performance - even looking at FIP-, which is a very advanced metric and a great way to compare guys year-over-year, he was a top 30 SP in baseball and likely would have turned in a 3 win season. Gotta apply some context.

Acting like a top 50 prospect becoming a top 30 SP in MLB by the age of 25 is anything less than a success is just goofy.

Wtf are you even talking about?

His FIP- was 102 (below average), 104 in his starts. If you look at all pitchers who threw 70 IP he's tied for 110, not top 30. This year was his 2nd worst year in FIP- and 1 of his only 2 years below average. It was 80 in 2019.

DJ's left nut · 10-07-2021, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

His replacement is way down list of what our problems were/are
I agree. It's north of $40 million coming off the books. Need a good bat at SS and a top quality pitcher this off season with that money.

They're gonna cite Arenado actually being on the payroll in 2022 (as opposed to the Rockies footing the bill) + raises to Wainwright and arb eligible players as justification to make only nominal 'improvements'.

Those nominal moves will be for guys like Andrew Miller who aren't actually improvements over organizational chaff anyway.

Who they need is Corey Seager. A left-handed bat with a plus approach who is a solid shortstop and has plenty of post-season experience. He's not quite as good a fit as Harper was 3 years ago, but he's close.

If they dip into the SS market at all it will be for Story because he's older (thus less term) and had a bad platform season, so his AAV isn't likely to be as high as the Correa/Seager/Semien trio.

ChiefsCountry · 10-07-2021, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They're gonna cite Arenado actually being on the payroll in 2022 (as opposed to the Rockies footing the bill) + raises to Wainwright and arb eligible players as justification to make only nominal 'improvements'.

Those nominal moves will be for guys like Andrew Miller who aren't actually improvements over organizational chaff anyway.

Who they need is Corey Seager. A left-handed bat with a plus approach who is a solid shortstop and has plenty of post-season experience. He's not quite as good a fit as Harper was 3 years ago, but he's close.

If they dip into the SS market at all it will be for Story because he's older (thus less term) and had a bad platform season, so his AAV isn't likely to be as high as the Correa/Seager/Semien trio.

Yankees are going to go all in on Seager IMO.

DJ's left nut · 10-07-2021, 10:58 AM

By my math they're at about $130 million in cash payroll before arb figures for Gallegos, Hudson, O'Neill, Bader, Flaherty, Hicks and Reyes.

I suspect Gallegos, Hudson, Hicks and O'Neill will average about $2 million/per. I could see O'Neill getting $3 million given his season. Flaherty is probably looking at about $8 million? Bader probably near $6 million? So you're looking at $25-30 million there. That gets you to a 22 man roster if you include the Pre-arb guys. Those 10ish pre-arb guys probably run you another $7 million or so.

The payroll is already at $160-$170 million at that point (after you fill the remaining roster spots, even with league minimum guys).

Their payroll last season was about $170 million fellas.

They aren't going to do much this off-season.

EDIT: I think I double-counted Wainwright as I went down the spreadsheet. So if you target the low side of the arb estimates and remove my double counting, I could see up to about $25 million in 'dry powder'.

I feel like that's going towards a 4th starter and a relief pitcher. I think Story's about the best you can hope for and I'm honestly not sure he's someone you should be targeting at $20+ million/season.

Marco Polo · 10-07-2021, 11:11 AM

We lost not because of the bullpen. We lost because we were 0 for 11 in RISP. That's it.

**The Franchise** · 10-07-2021, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Yankees are going to go all in on Seager IMO.

Yeah and I don’t see the Dodgers keeping him. Sucks as a Dodgers fan but I expect it to happen.

jd1020 · 10-07-2021, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Yeah and I don’t see the Dodgers keeping him. Sucks as a Dodgers fan but I expect it to happen.

Something tells me the Dodgers will be A-OK. They are the only franchise around willing to piss on the luxury tax thresholds.

**The Franchise** · 10-07-2021, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

Something tells me the Dodgers will be A-OK. They are the only franchise around willing to piss on the luxury tax thresholds.

Oh they’ll be fine. They’ll just move Turner back to SS.

DJ's left nut · 10-07-2021, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

We lost not because of the bullpen. We lost because we were 0 for 11 in RISP. That's it.

And it wasn’t a result of good pitching.

Scherzer, Kelly and Treinen ALL gave Cardinal hitters good pitches to hit with RISP.

The Arenado at bat was particularly bad. He missed 2 hung sliders and took a third.

They had their chances and just didn’t get the job done.

duncan_idaho · 10-07-2021, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd1020

Wtf are you even talking about?

His FIP- was 102 (below average), 104 in his starts. If you look at all pitchers who threw 70 IP he's tied for 110, not top 30. This year was his 2nd worst year in FIP- and 1 of his only 2 years below average. It was 80 in 2019.

WTF I am talking about is how he was performing before he was injured.

Use Fangraphs.

Filter through end of May.

He was not right when he came back and the sample size was small enough to skew his overall numbers.

**The Franchise** · 10-07-2021, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And it wasn’t a result of good pitching.

Scherzer, Kelly and Treinen ALL gave Cardinal hitters good pitches to hit with RISP.

The Arenado at bat was particularly bad. He missed 2 hung sliders and took a third.

They had their chances and just didn’t get the job done.

Dodgers weren’t doing shit with them either.

02-17-2021, 10:29 AM
BigRedChief Has a particular set of skills Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: On the water Casino cash: $-541038 VARSITY	*Official 2021 STL Cardinals Thread* 2021 Opening Day Lineup Spoiler! 1. Tommy Edman (S) - 2B 2. Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 1B 3. Nolan Arenado (R) - 3B 4. Paul DeJong (R) - SS 5. Tyler O'Neill (R) - LF 6. Yadier Molina (R) - C 7. Dylan Carlson (S) - CF 8. Justin Williams (L) - RF 9. Pitcher For the new Cardinal fans that joined the Planet since last year..... 2020 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=329273 2019 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=320239 2018 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812 2012 Thread https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=254619 etc. All the way back to 2006 WS https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=312812 Last edited by BigRedChief; 04-01-2021 at 05:21 PM..
Posts: 81,236

10-07-2021, 07:53 AM	#438
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1218759	Nice run Cards, but sickening the Dodgers even had to play in a wildcard game. They were one game away from having the best record in baseball. Just ridiculous. Glad they made it.
Posts: 52,355

10-07-2021, 10:58 AM	#443
DJ's left nut Sauntering Vaguely Downwards Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Columbia, Mo Casino cash: $-610901	By my math they're at about $130 million in cash payroll before arb figures for Gallegos, Hudson, O'Neill, Bader, Flaherty, Hicks and Reyes. I suspect Gallegos, Hudson, Hicks and O'Neill will average about $2 million/per. I could see O'Neill getting $3 million given his season. Flaherty is probably looking at about $8 million? Bader probably near $6 million? So you're looking at $25-30 million there. That gets you to a 22 man roster if you include the Pre-arb guys. Those 10ish pre-arb guys probably run you another $7 million or so. The payroll is already at $160-$170 million at that point (after you fill the remaining roster spots, even with league minimum guys). Their payroll last season was about $170 million fellas. They aren't going to do much this off-season. EDIT: I think I double-counted Wainwright as I went down the spreadsheet. So if you target the low side of the arb estimates and remove my double counting, I could see up to about $25 million in 'dry powder'. I feel like that's going towards a 4th starter and a relief pitcher. I think Story's about the best you can hope for and I'm honestly not sure he's someone you should be targeting at $20+ million/season. __________________ "If there's a god, he's laughing at us.....and our football team..." "When you look at something through rose colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags."
Posts: 66,656

10-07-2021, 11:11 AM	#444
Marco Polo Veteran Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: 41°59.4′N 87°39.6'W Casino cash: $4008908	We lost not because of the bullpen. We lost because we were 0 for 11 in RISP. That's it.
Posts: 2,540

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