Narratives That Need to Die

[Bearcat]

2021:

Spoiler!

Fallacy: Games are created equal.
Possible Narrative: Any given win streak is impressive.
The Truth: Beating non-playoff teams in the regular season doesn't mean shit for the playoffs. Beating several non-playoff teams in the regular season doesn't mean shit for the playoffs. Losing to non-playoff teams isn't indicative of much, either, unless of course it's a habit.
Examples: The Bills being -->this<-- close to winning 12 in a row despite beating only 2 playoff teams in that span, who were both eliminated in the first weekend. The Bucs "being on a roll" because they beat a bunch of shit in December, after losing to 3 playoff teams in 4 games. As far as losing to non-playoff teams, see the Chiefs/Raiders and the numerous times the Patriots have struggled in September or lost to the Dolphins.

Possible Narrative: Strength of Victory/Strength of Schedule always matters.
The Truth: Beating a bunch of ~9-10 win mediocre teams doesn't mean anything when it comes to beating true Super Bowl contenders. The only indicator when it comes to success against true Super Bowl contenders is beating Super Bowl contenders (or at least contending). SoV/SoS tends to matter more when you're looking at a complete cupcake schedule.
Examples: See, Bills. In terms of "success against true SB contenders" and cupcake schedules, see the Browns' schedule and Packers' schedule.


Fallacy: Regular season results are truly indicative of playoff success.
Possible Narrative: Any given 11+ win team is primed to upset an experienced playoff team.
The Truth: The playoffs are a different beast and playoff experience matters. A lot.
Examples: Browns, Bills, Ravens for the past two seasons.

Possible Narrative: Point differential matters.
The Truth: It can matter in extreme cases, such as an 11-win Browns team having a negative point differential. It may matter to a certain extent, but is a small part of the overall big picture. One reason for this is that garbage time points can skew point differential as well as perception. A team can be in control of a game and up three possessions, but a couple of last minute touchdowns makes the outcome look far closer than it really was. For this reason and others, point differential certainly does not matter against non-playoff teams.
Examples: The Bills blowing out non-playoff teams. The Chiefs not blowing out non-playoff teams (or most teams).


Fallacy: Regular season momentum exists.
Possible Narrative: "They have all the momentums!"
The Truth: No. They don't.
Examples: Bills and now the Bucs.

Possible Narrative: Teams can't flip a switch.
The Truth: A team with playoff experience and success can certainly play vanilla in the regular season and do things to avoid injury, etc; and then dig deep into the playbook while recklessly throwing themselves into defenders when the games really matter.
Examples: The Defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs

Possible Narrative: Team is on a roll, they clearly want it more, etc.
The Truth: No. They aren't and they don't.
Examples: Every fan base who's shown up here in the past 3 months.

Possible Narrative: Teams can be rusty after resting their starters.
The Truth: A team won't forget how to execute in a matter of 2-3 weeks. Playoff pressure, playing playoff teams for a change, bad playoff match ups... are all more likely reasons for losing.
Examples: The Defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.


Fallacy: Red zone percentages is all you need to know about red zone performance.
Possible narrative: Just look at their red zone percentage for the season!
The Truth: Reliance on red zone trips to score also matters. The number of trips for/against matters.
Examples: The Chiefs' defense sucks in the red zone (76% against), but allow the 6th fewest attempts. So, you have to get there first. The Chiefs offense is ~20th in the league, but only score 65% of their total TDs from the red zone, as opposed to some opponents scoring 80% or even 90% of their total TDs from the red zone.

Possible narrative: Just look at their red zone percentage in the past 4 weeks!
The Truth: Small sample size + variables across only a few games makes this percentage almost pointless, as a team could move 10 or 20% and 10+ spots in a matter of 1 or two conversions or failed conversions.


Fallacy: Time of Possession matters
Possible narrative: (Team) will run it down the Chiefs' throats, control TOP, and keep Mahomes on the sidelines.
The Truth: Possessions matter and touchdowns matter. A team can take 8 minutes off the clock with a 15 play drive, and the Chiefs might still score in 2 minutes. Capitalizing on possessions is key.
Examples: https://youtu.be/F-kggF9B-F8?t=201


Fallacy: Chiefs fans are now arrogant assholes
The Truth: Only some of us! We've just grown tired of hearing these same old pointless narratives over and over and over. It's not that the Chiefs are invincible, it's just that these tired, idiotic narratives won't help your case or your team's chances.


Fallacy: Everything is black and white.
Possible narrative: "You're full of shit because ___________!"
The Truth: All of these truths.

New for 2023-24!

Fallacy: Big underdogs willing themselves to victory in the playoffs.
Possible Narrative: The underdog has nothing to lose! They'll B-E aggressive!
The Truth: Mahomes has only ever lost to Brady and Burrow in the playoffs, and two of those games went to OT. Stop worrying about every brokedick quarterback, every run-first team, every "tHeY'rE cOnFiDeNt AnD nOt InTimIdAtEd!!" team.
Examples: Being fearful of the Browns, Jags, the Titans FFS.

Fallacy: Paying a franchise QB handcuffs your team towards mediocrity (or at least fewer Super Bowls)
Possible Narrative: Rebuild year, reload year, the imminent demise of the Kansas City Chiefs, and the general "complete team vs quarterback".
The Truth: The quarterback position is pretty important. It's so important, in fact, you can get away with having an average or below average defense, a mediocre run game, unproven receivers, and so on... even to the extent that a one-legged franchise QB is better than most NFL teams. Obviously, the rest of the team can't suck ass and there's always a fine line between winning and losing in the biggest games of the year, where those other pieces matter the most, but you wouldn't be in that position if it weren't for paying the man.

Possible Narrative: The Chiefs need to retain non-Mahomes guy or sign the best player at their position in free agency.
The Truth: A franchise QB makes up for lesser talent elsewhere on the roster, and having the top QB in the league is a much larger gap than "only" having a top 15 guy at another position.
Examples: Tyreek, Hopkins, needing the best LT ever, etc.

Fallacy: The NFL is out to **** the Chiefs.
Possible Narrative: Every loss is rigged for whatever reason is made up after they lose. Basically everything that happens is the NFL's way of figuring out how to **** the Chiefs.
The Truth: Can we please just let this one ****ing go? The Chiefs won the AFCCG and SB on defensive penalties at the end of the game and still didn't have to play a road (or neutral site!) game. I think we're good.
Examples: Every single loss. Hamlin is the drama the NFL needs to push the Bills to the SB... oh, and the NFL wants to experiment with neutral sites forever after they force the Chiefs to play in Atlanta. Ratings. Fly over country. Vegas. New stadiums.

Fallacy: Regular season momentum exists.
Possible Narrative: Teams can't flip a switch. (this is from the 2021 version, but should be reiterated)
The Truth: A team with playoff experience and success can certainly play vanilla in the regular season and do things to avoid injury, etc; and then dig deep into the playbook while recklessly throwing themselves into defenders when the games really matter.
Examples: The Defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Skip and Stephen A. said exactly this, this morning. Afternoon. Whatever. Stephen A. went so far as to say that if Rodgers/Allen were under center for KC instead of Mahomes, we'd see exactly the same results.

Watch that video in the Mahomes thread where he simply shrugs off unblocked defenders and completes passes for first downs. Zero other guys can do that and he does it regularly.

[morphius]

I think a lot of those hold more true of lesser teams. Like the resting players, those teams punching above their weight seem to struggle in the playoffs when they rest players the last week.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by morphius

I think a lot of those hold more true of lesser teams. Like the resting players, those teams punching above their weight seem to struggle in the playoffs when they rest players the last week.

Chief Fan seemed pretty sure resting our guys was going to, somehow, bite us in the ass. Like, Mahomes was going to come out rusty or some ridiculous garbage.

[Danguardace]

I hate the whole "Since week x Team/player x has been _____(add superlative of choice) "
Seems rife in today's lazy journalism.

[Danguardace]

Rest starters is bad imo is officially an excuse. Chiefs had 3 weeks off

[morphius]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Chief Fan seemed pretty sure resting our guys was going to, somehow, bite us in the ass. Like, Mahomes was going to come out rusty or some ridiculous garbage.

I'm sure some would, there have been teams that have come out flat after the break. I don't really think we need to worry about that. But give me a lesser QB that is in a groove, and I might be concerned.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by frozenchief

1. This is a great post. Good use of facts rather than just mindlessly repeating the same old cliches like some kind of damn puppet.

2. There’s a Narrative to which I have subscribed that will be tested this weekend: how important is the O line? Granted, it can’t be garbage but I have argued here (and elsewhere) that with a QB like Mahomes, KC should invest the money in enough of the O line to be among the best O lines in the league. I think Remmers is pretty good but he’s not as good as Fisher or Schwartz. Our O line has been ravaged by injuries this year and yet they’ve done well enough to protect Mahomes and allow our offense to function. They’ve done well enough that while I would like to see improvement, I at least question the Narrative.

this upcoming Super Bowl will certainly test the Narrative. I’ve admitted when I’ve been wrong before. I’ll do it again. If our patchwork O-line can provide enough protection to allow our offense to function well, it will be persuasive evidence against my argument. And if our O-line falters, that Narrative might survive to another day.

Hell, what am I talking about? Of course the Narrative will survive. Some people believe what they want to believe irrespective of all evidence. But if our O line does a respectable job, I will at least re-consider my embrace of that Narrative. (But we should still get an upgrade at center this off season, whether by trade free-agency or draft.)

Anyway, great post. Thanks for putting thought into this and posting something intelligent.

I have an unhealthy bias against that narrative because of all the years of "it's the offensive line!!".... and then I'd watch a QB like Rodgers, with a worse line, be able to deal with it instead of falling into the fetal position at the slightest pressure.

For Mahomes though, I think there would be diminishing returns at some point.... if he can make it to the SB with this many injuries/opt-outs/etc. to this line and win it all with last year's line........ what does say the 15th best line in the league get him? 10th best? 5th best? The best?

Eventually, it just wouldn't matter, as I don't see his production increasing at the same rate as the line gets better and better... it's not like he'll be throwing for 600 yards/game, because the chance of completing a longer pass or whatever will never be all that close to 100%.

The other part of that, of course, is protecting him.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Possible Narrative: Mahomes is a product of his insane weapons. Pat simply throws to wide-open Kelce or Hill on every play.

The Truth: This is horseshit. Mahomes is most likely THE best ever.

Example: The Chiefs pre-Mahomes as a starter? Maybe a playoff win. The Chiefs post-Mahomes as a starter? AFC Championship game at a minimum. More likely, the Chiefs are Super Bowl Champs/Favorites.

Yep, and there's already some truth to that.... no offensive line to speak of, but still in the SB. Overcomes injuries to his starting RB, without his 2nd WR for weeks, overcoming a 24 point deficit last year because of dropped passes and muffed punts... overcoming an early 9 point deficit in the AFCCG (something that, say, Lamar Jackson had never done prior to the Titans' game).

I'm thinking the truth to that is.... sure, the level of dominance is a product of having insane weapons, and he'd have less margin for error without them.

[scho63]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

This is the condensed version of it!

It's the past 3 months of opposing fan arguments in one thread.

As someone who posts gifs like 70% of the time, I did fail when it comes to not providing pictures. The reddit video that I posted earlier sums it up in a way though.

Enjoying this lovely Arizona weather?

[Marcellus]

Good stuff.

Along with this narrative I would add that not all points scored are created equal. Garbage time points when a team is down 3 scores doesn't really mean anything yet they effect point differential and can skew perceptions.

Points given up when a team is behind, tied, or leading by 8 or less points is a bigger indicator of how effective your defense is.

For example KC's knack for giving up very few 2nd and 3rd quarter points is very large in their ability to consistently win. They have also been good in tight games in the 4th quarter when needed. Obviously the 1st Raiders game is the only exception and one outlier is not a pattern.

Fallacy: Regular season results are truly indicative of playoff success.
Possible Narrative: Any given 11+ win team is primed to upset an experienced playoff team.
The Truth: The playoffs are a different beast and playoff experience matters. A lot.
Examples: Browns, Bills, Ravens for the past two seasons.

Possible Narrative: Point differential matters.
The Truth: It can matter in extreme cases, such as an 11-win Browns team having a negative point differential. It may matter to a certain extent, but is a small part of the overall big picture. It certainly does not matter against non-playoff teams.
Examples: The Bills blowing out non-playoff teams. The Chiefs not blowing out non-playoff teams (or most teams).

[morphius]

What I find funny is the TOP stuff. At some point late last year Reid figured out that he needed to help the defense a bit and actually started using more time on drives with more run plays, short passes, etc, to give them rest. Made the entire team better.

[O.city]

Only one I'd push back on is the "switch flipping".

The Chiefs are about the only damn football team I've seen be able to do it like they do.

[tmax63]

I agree with Marcellus. Not all points given up are equal. Would love to see a points allowed stat where points given up by a defense don't count against them when up by 2 scores in the 4th qtr or 3 scores during the game.

[FloridaMan88]

It’s a one game sample size (although it was the AFC Championship Game), but the narrative that the Chiefs offense takes a step back without Sammy Watkins was maybe put to rest on Sunday.

That’s as good as the Chiefs offense has looked all season.

[tmax63]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

It’s a one game sample size (although it was the AFC Championship Game), but the narrative that the Chiefs offense takes a step back without Sammy Watkins was maybe put to rest on Sunday.

That’s as good as the Chiefs offense has looked all season.

I think Hardman took a big step forward as well. He screwed up big time but the Chiefs turned around and fed him the ball the next series and got his head back in the game. Big boost of confidence when your QB and coach don't bench you or never let you touch the ball again. With the weapons the Chiefs has he knows his touches are limited and I think he tries way too hard on most of them.