McDermott chasing a point early was dumb

[jerryaldini]

McDermott going for 2 just because a penalty gave them the short extra point wound up cascading to a 3 point swing in our favor. They fail on another try and then it incentivised us to get a successful 2 for a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter. It showed their arrogance in assuming Allen is unstoppable from 2 yards out, and that arrogance continued in their later tush push failures.

Here's where the counterfactual gets interesting. Instead of being down 32-29 on their last drive, it would have been 31-31 on their 4th and 5 at the 2 minute warning. Decision time. Kick us deep, or don't take a chance on letting Mahomes have the ball back? I think they definitely still go for it given the history of Mahomes having the ball last.

Assuming so, it would have made the ending a little more dramatic with a Butker kick to end it. A good reminder why you don't chase points early. They were just trying to make it 21-18 instead of 21-17 at the end of the first half.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

It was really dumb

It’s like he didn’t even consider the guaranteed point in the calculus of going for two

What do you think his calculus was? What odds do you think HE gave the Bill's chances of the 2 as?

Hadn't Allen been close to automatic from that distance all year?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

If you think you have more than a 50% of making it, I don't know, seems like playing the odds would make it worthwhile.

At that point in the game, thinking his short yardage play would work would still seem reasonable.

Sure, after KC had gotten some stops, but at that point, it seems reasonable.

If I'm the Bills, I'm absolutely playing to win.

You only need to convert 47.5% of the time to beat the extra point taking into account avg misses of XPs.

Elite offenses should always go for two in the first halves and of course where end of the game game theory supports it.

In the first halves of games all you should be doing is trying to maximize your EPA.

[TripleThreat]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

I'll never understand why folks have such a difficult time conceding a loss. "It was rigged" is lazy and pathetic.

Because a ton of people around the NFL said the same thing about the patriots, just like people here did as well… posters here still stand by that Brady “maybe” has earned 4 super bowls… success breeds haters.

[Bump]

Originally Posted by TripleThreat

Because a ton of people around the NFL said the same thing about the patriots, just like people here did as well… posters here still stand by that Brady “maybe” has earned 4 super bowls… success breeds haters.

and then you experience it for yourself and realize how dumb that all is and you just come to terms that Brady was truly a great quarterback.

[Rainbarrel]

Beating McDermott with defense hurts him more than with offense. Run Josh run away

[Jewish Rabbi]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

The 2 point conversion. Situational football. Danna, Tranquill & Justin Reid get low and rotate their bodies to keep the OL from driving defenders back. The 3 of them are crucial from stopping Allen’s momentum. Jaylen Watson is ready for the pitch back. #Chiefs #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/ZD9pOONEPg

— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) January 28, 2025

This is a thing of beauty.

That pitch back is horseshit. If we rip it from his hands, forward progress is stopped and the play is dead. If cuckboi scores a TD there it’s “OMGZ JERSEH ALAN!!”

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

I'll never understand why folks have such a difficult time conceding a loss. "It was rigged" is lazy and pathetic.

That's because you're rational.

These people are not rational.

Don't try to understand delusional. It will get you nowhere.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BWillie

You only need to convert 47.5% of the time to beat the extra point taking into account avg misses of XPs.

Elite offenses should always go for two in the first halves and of course where end of the game game theory supports it.

In the first halves of games all you should be doing is trying to maximize your EPA.

If only Andy thought the way you do, we could have lost more games and avoided the #1 seed.

[Garcia Bronco]

In the sum it didn't matter. Had he kicked the EP's he would have lost by a point instead of 3. McDermott reminds me of Marty Shotenloser.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by jerryaldini

McDermott going for 2 just because a penalty gave them the short extra point wound up cascading to a 3 point swing in our favor. They fail on another try and then it incentivised us to get a successful 2 for a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter. It showed their arrogance in assuming Allen is unstoppable from 2 yards out, and that arrogance continued in their later tush push failures.

Here's where the counterfactual gets interesting. Instead of being down 32-29 on their last drive, it would have been 31-31 on their 4th and 5 at the 2 minute warning. Decision time. Kick us deep, or don't take a chance on letting Mahomes have the ball back? I think they definitely still go for it given the history of Mahomes having the ball last.

Assuming so, it would have made the ending a little more dramatic with a Butker kick to end it. A good reminder why you don't chase points early. They were just trying to make it 21-18 instead of 21-17 at the end of the first half.

First, let me say that I agree with you that it was idiotic to be chasing points the way they did. I agree that those decisions played a huge role in costing the Bills that game.

However, your supposition is a fallacy of logic called "hypothesis contrary to fact." Once you hypothesize something different from what actually happened, you cannot draw definitive conclusions about anything that happened afterward because we don't know what might have happened differently. We don't know what the score might have been at any point that followed, because the entire game might have played out differently.

[srvy]

McDermott seems to be a guy who makes good decisions at exactly the wrong moment in time.

[ThaVirus]

I’m more on the conservative side, but I don’t begrudge coaches for going for 2 based on the flow of the game.

If it’s late in the game, you’re probably needing the points so the choice is a no brainer. If it’s early in the game, you’d like to assume you’ll have time to make up for it if you fail.

Or even if it’s an offensive shootout, you assume you’ll have another chance later on. If it’s a defensive battle, I can see the logic in trying to maximize your limited opportunities.

Either way, the logic can pretty easily be defended.

[Tonka83]

but, but, Analytics say.....

[Deberg_1990]

Bills are stuck in no mans land with McDermott

He’s not bad obviously,
But they are Too scared to let him go for fear or getting something worse.

[Wallcrawler]

You can do one of two things.

1. You can cry about refs. Whether you believe the Vegas fix is in, or you believe the NFL is WWE on grass, or if you're just that ****ing stupid, squeal away.

Or

2. A dumb coach made the same dumb decisions that he's been making for over half a decade, and the negative impact of those decisions affected the outcome and final score of the football game.


Every one of us knew that McDerpitt was going to make at least one panic decision. He ended up making about 6.

Situational football was abysmal. Gosh, it really ****ing looks like they know we go left on the qb sneak. Let's keep calling it anyway.

Wow Cook is really tearing it up this game. Sub him out and run more sneaks.

Let's chase points early, including taking a made extra point off the board.

Josh Allen was a reflection of McDerpitt. Started put in panic mode, threw several hero balls instead of just taking wide open receivers underneath.

Sean McDerpitt was essentially Philadelphia era/pre Mahomes era Andy Reid in this game. He went away from who they were as a team, (they made their living running jumbo with extra ol, and we barely saw any of that), and as soon as someone made a play, they couldn't hit the bench fast enough. Went away from what was working to call plays REPEATEDLY that failed. 13 touches for your star running back that scored two touchdowns in the game?

Where have we seen that shit before?

Cry about refs if you like, but McDerpitt should be out on his ass right now after that performance from the sidelines.