A mock draft that will make your heads explode

[Fat Elvis]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfp-moc...0103--nfl.html

NFP Mock Draft 3.0
National Football PostBy Russ Lande | National Football Post – 4 hours ago



Trying to predict what players will be chosen by specific teams is nearly impossible before the All Star games, Combine and Pro Days, but below is the first mock draft of the new year. As always I try to match hat I am hearing about team's desires with what I believe are the best players available, so take a look and send me your thoughts.

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Manti Te’o, MLB, Notre Dame, Senior: No quarterback warrants being the first overall pick and after Jovan Belcher’s suicide the Chiefs have a strong need for another impact linebacker and Te’o can be that player.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State, Junior: While many may expect the Jaguars to reach for a quarterback to replace Blaine Gabbert, we believe that Tim Tebow will be that player. So the new general manager can focus on improving the Jaguars pass rush, which has struggled with consistency in recent seasons.

3. Oakland Raiders: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M, Junior: With many needs the Raiders make the decision to draft Joeckel who is viewed as potentially one of the safer choices in the Draft. Joeckel could either upgrade the Raiders at left tackle and push Veldheer to the right side or could take over at right tackle while Veldheer stays on the left; either way the Raiders offensive line improves greatly.

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M, Junior: Without Jason Peters playing left tackle in 2012 the Eagles’ offensive line struggled all season. So drafting Matthews gives them insurance in case Peters struggles to return from injury and could be a big upgrade at right tackle if Peters is healthy and back at left tackle for the 2013 season.

5. Detroit Lions: Kenny Vaccaro, SAF, Texas, Senior: Louis Delmas is starting to get the “injury prone” label and the Lions do not have a top level safety to play next to him. While some may view Vaccaro as a reach, we believe he would be an immediate starter for the Lions and would upgrade their pass defense.

6. Cleveland Browns: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama, Senior: The Browns have a ton of young offensive talent at the skill positions, but for them to blossom their offensive line needs to improve. Warmack would upgrade their interior offensive line play and improve their rushing attack immediately.

7. Arizona Cardinals: Mike Glennon, QB, N.C. State, Senior: Whomever the new head coach in Arizona ends up being, he likely will not want to count on Kolb, Skelton or Lindley for the future . So they draft the strong armed Glennon who reminds us a tremendous amount of Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan.

8. Buffalo Bills: Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan, Junior: With OG Andy Levitre an unrestricted free agent and no established right tackle on the roster; the Bills grab Lewan who could start at right tackle from day one.

9. New York Jets: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia, Junior: While the Jets are likely to draft a quarterback to challenge Sanchez, they do not want to reach for one here. So they jump at the chance to add the explosive Jones who should upgrade their outside pass rush immediately.

10. Tennessee Titans: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama, Junior: The Titans have a number of holes, but the chance to add a strong and physical cornerback with pro bowl potential makes too much sense for them to pass up.

11. San Diego Chargers: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan, Senior: A better prospect coming out of school than Joe Staley, Fisher could take over at left tackle and help keep Philip Rivers upright for the rest of his career.

12. Miami Dolphins: Keenan Allen, WR, California, Junior: Quarterback Ryan Tannehill showed flashes that he can be the long term answer for the Dolphins, but he needs weapons. Allen is a big play receiver who can “take the top off the defense” to open everything up for their offense.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Oday Aboushi, OT, Virginia, Senior: The Buccaneers right side of their offensive line struggled with consistency in 2012, which leads to their choice of Aboushi who is strong, physical and consistent. He should challenge to start at either right tackle or right guard as a rookie.

14. Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah, Senior: Carolina has two quality defensive ends in Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy, but its interior defensive line continued to struggle in 2012. Lotulelei would be an impact player in the middle of its defensive line from day one, which would upgrade the Panthers’ defense.

15. New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri, Junior: Sedric Ellis is an unrestricted free agent and the Saints need to upgrade their defense. Richardson would give them an explosive, penetrating defensive tackle that would regularly make impact plays behind the LOS.

16. St. Louis Rams: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina, Senior: Quarterback Sam Bradford was constantly under pressure in 2012 and Cooper is an athletic and powerful lineman with the talent to start at guard or center for the Rams.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon, Senior: James Harrison was not the impact pass rusher in 2012 that he was earlier in his career and Lamarr Woodley struggled with injuries throughout 2012, so they add Jordan. Jordan could backup both in 2013 while adding explosiveness and speed to the Steelers pass rush.

18. Dallas Cowboys: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State, Junior: Neither Jason Hatcher or Marcus Spears has become an elite defensive lineman and Hankins would add size and strength to the defensive end position in the Cowboys 34 scheme.

19. New York Giants: Ezekial Ansah, DE, BYU, Senior: Osi Umenyiora ‘s contract is up so he will likely not be back and Justin Tuck has recorded two straight up and down seasons. Ansah is raw, but similar to Jason Pierre Paul in terms of athleticism, competitiveness and potential.

20. Chicago Bears: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma, Senior: To say the Bears offensive line has been a major weakness in recent seasons would be an under-statement. Johnson has only played offensive tackle for two seasons and with his height, long arms and athleticism his upside is outstanding.

21 P. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee, Junior: The Bengals hit big time on their selection of AJ Green and like the potential of Marvin jones, but the chance to grab Patterson, who reminds us a lot of Falcons’ receiver Roddy White, makes too much sense as he would be a great weapon opposite Green.

22 P. St. Louis Rams (From Washington): Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia, Senior: After upgrading their offensive line with their first first round pick, the Rams get the most explosive offensive weapon in the Draft for Bradford to throw to.

23 P. Baltimore Ravens: Alex Ogletree, LB, Georgia, Junior: With Ray Lewis coming off a major injury and entering his 18th season in 2013, the Ravens jump at chance to grab Ogletree who is the most explosive inside linebacker in the Draft.

24 P. Minnesota Vikings: Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama, Senior: Longtime stud defensive tackle Kevin Williams is 32, so the Vikings grab Williams who can be their third defensive tackle in 2013 and take over as starter when Williams is done.

25 P. Indianapolis Colts: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State, Senior: Ryan Grigson pulled off a great trade getting cornerback Vontae Davis and now he drafts Banks to shore up the other cornerback position.

26 P. Seattle Seahawks: Barrett Jones, C / OG, Alabama, Senior: Jones is not a top athlete, but he is a smart, aggressive and versatile lineman who could start at center, guard or even tackle for Seahawks in the future.

27 P. Green Bay Packers: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame, Senior: Current tight end Jermichael Finley is not expected to return to team in 2013, so the Packers upgrade the position by drafting Eifert whose combination of size, athleticism and hands are tough to find.

28 P. San Francisco 49ers: Margus Hunt, DE, SMU, Senior: Since defensive end Justin Smith was injured, the 49ers defense has struggled greatly, so they need to find a young defensive lineman to groom as his replacement. Hunt is an incredible athlete with great length, explosiveness and strength who could turn into a star in a season or two.

29 P. Houston Texans: Eric Reid, SAF, LSU, Junior: The Texans have been expected to draft a receiver in the first round to play opposite Andre Johnson every year and never have, so I believe they will continue that trend and focus on a different position. Reid is an active safety with the toughness to be a force against the run and the range and coverage skills to help the Texans deep coverage.

30 P. New England Patriots: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M, Junior: The Patriots pass rush still struggles to get consistent pressure, so they take a gamble on Moore who has the talent to become a dominating outside linebacker in their system and bring positional versatility to their defense, which Belichick gives enormous weight to.

31 P. Atlanta Falcons: Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU, Junior: John Abraham is not getting any younger, so the Falcons draft Montgomery to backup Abraham and Biermann in 2013 and take over for Abraham when he retires.

32 P. Denver Broncos: David Amerson, CB, N.C. State, Junior: Champ Bailey is nearing the end of a Hall of Fame Career, so Coach Fox adds Amerson who has the combination of size, strength, willingness to play physical and coverage skills to be a solid all-around cornerback.

No Geno in the first round. Not very realistic AT ALL, but....if you could get Geno in the second round--and it was guarenteed--who would you pick #1?

[eclipse31satx]

as stated in a post i made earlier i dont think we should use the #1 for a QB but if we do i definitely dont want Barkley and i am iffy on G Smith. Personally i like Bray. 6' 6" 215 with a rocket for an arm. needs a little work but i think he has a ton of upside.

[Exoter175]

Originally Posted by Capt Tasty Cheeks

I still say we draft a punter #1 overall Exoter. We saw how valuable Colquitt was this year so I think we should let him walk and take the best punter on the board #1 overall. Agree?

If we could draft 22 Colquitts, I'd be in heaven.

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

You never take a safety at #5 overall!!!!!!!!! NEVAR!!!!!

I Mean who does that?

Originally Posted by Thig Lyfe

You're literally the only person in the world using this logic. Drafting a QB #1 is never "wasting a draft pick" even if the QB doesn't pan out; it's how 31 other goddamn teams in this league do business. It's how any legitimate team starts the rebuilding process. And the CBA means that you can draft a QB without the attendant risk of a bazillion dollar contract. There's literally no good reason to not draft a QB at #1 now, even if Luck and RGIII aren't available. YOU'RE GETTING THE MOST VALUABLE POSITION IN FOOTBALL AT A SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER PRICE. Using the #1 pick on a position that is 100x less valuable, like say ILB, makes no ****ing sense.

Of course, this will all be moot when Geno tears up the combine and all the so-called experts decide he's truly deserving of the top pick after all.

Funny how you're talking about value at that #1 pick now, see? I'm contagious! And yeah, I'm fully expecting Geno to go beastmode at the combine.

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Background: I have never been a QB or bust guy with the Chiefs first-round pick. I have debated quite intensely at times on this board about the guys available to the Chiefs at No. 1 (speaking out markedly against Sanchez and also Matthew "Front Mullet/China Doll/One above-average season" Stafford).

But this year? In this draft that doesn't offer any other true impact options at the Chiefs pick? I'm a "draft-a-QB" guy.

I think expecting a QB of high value to fall to No. 33 might be a bit optimistic.

The Jaguars are likely bringing in Tebow, but it wouldn't surprise to see them take a REAL QB at No. 2.

The Raiders need a QB, unless they're pinning their hopes on one game of Terrelle Pryor (in which he posted a 70.1 QB rating - as a Chiefs fan, you hope for this, right?)

The Browns took Brandon Weeden a year ago, but he stinks ( and was a later 1st round pick).

The Cardinals need a QB more than any team not called the Chiefs.

The Bills could draft a QB. Ryan Fitzpatrick is just OK, and he's not a spring chicken (He's 30).

The Jets need a QB, as Sanchez is terrible and Tebow is likely gone.

The Chargers have an old and declining Philip Rivers (31) and might be looking to backfill.

That's seven other teams that could logically draft a QB based on need/opportunity. It doesn't account for smart teams (like the Patriots) that would draft a QB if they feel it's the best talent there.

I don't think there are THAT many QBs of equal talent level that you can EXPECT one to fall to No. 33. Especially THE guy. Best thing for the Chiefs would be someone like Jarvis Jones just completely blowing up at the combine, enough to separate himself as the clear No. 1 pick (Joekel works here, too). That would make it a little easier to trade down and get the QB they want, and maybe nab a few extra picks.

But if trading down doesn't work, overdrafting a QB in this draft is just fine, IMO. The only way KC can really mess this up, IMO, is drafting Manti Te'o at No. 1. Talk about overdrafting... nothing screams "BUST" as a No. 1 pick like a guy who lacks positional value, isn't an impact player at that position, and is an average CFB athlete at his position.

If you're going to overdraft a player, overdraft an impact position player (QB, pass rusher, cornerback - though there are none that fit the bill this year). Don't overdraft a position of limited impact that can be easily filled in later rounds.

We'll see how Joekel grades out as draft day nears. He's a truly elite pass blocker, but his lack of ability in run blocking (where he is just OK, not great) separates him, IMO, from guys like Joe Thomas, Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, etc.

I think the Raiders will forgo QB, the Jaguars will do the same, no doubt about it. Bills will likely wait a few rounds to get a project QB to stick behind Fitz, Cleveland won't turn this fast on Weeden, and on and on.

This happens every year, people say X team and Y team need QB's, they're going to take one. Then 4 of those XYZ teams actually take a QB in the first two rounds. Why? Because it doesn't matter if the QB position is the most valuable and on paper you are getting the most valuable pick for the money, you still have to like the guy and think he fits your team, before you even take the next step. 3 QB's at max will be taken in the first round, likely 2 will go to teams in need of a QB, and the 3rd being taken by a team in need of a mechanically sound young gun to sit behind an aging vet. The saints are a GREAT example of a team who might actually take a QB in the first round or second round. You won't hurt Brees' pride, everyone in Louisiana knows that the Saints go nowhere without a QB and he's one of the best to ever play the position. Why not get your next guy in line behind one of the best? That's what the Patriots did when they snagged Mallet, arguably one of the best selections of that draft for them.

QB Talent will remain high going into the 2nd round, of that I have no doubt. Then again, I also doubt that we make it to the 2nd without already drafting a QB now that Reid is all but signed.

Originally Posted by Narrow Head

no Geno in the first round. Not very realistic AT ALL, but....if you could get Geno in the second round--and it was guarenteed--who would you pick #1?

I'd like Geno a lot more at the top of round 2. There is some fantastic top end defensive talent. The Raiders are going to get Jarvis Jones I'm afraid. The Raiders and Jags should make out very well with the #2 and #3.

That 1st pick in round 2 is a 1st rounder value IMO...especially in what should be a pretty deep defensive draft. I also like some of the WR with late 1st round grades. We need talent at WR and 5th rounders is not the way to do that.[/QUOTE]

No linemen please, but we could use a fast route runner with decent size at the WR position.

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

Yep bad year to have to pick at number 1.

Its never a bad year to have the #1 pick, it just isn't the best year to have it, 1 year late for us.

Originally Posted by Cassel>Manning

This one would be interesting

The Chiefs pass on Geno, only to see Oakland take him two spots later.

DISCLAIMER for SNR: * I have never seen a mock from Optimum Scouting before, Matt Williamson recommended them on twitter, and after checking around they do scout for agents and "professional teams" but that could also mean the arena league. *

http://www.optimumscouting.com/draft...medium=twitter

**** NO

Originally Posted by eclipse31satx

as stated in a post i made earlier i dont think we should use the #1 for a QB but if we do i definitely dont want Barkley and i am iffy on G Smith. Personally i like Bray. 6' 6" 215 with a rocket for an arm. needs a little work but i think he has a ton of upside.

I'm on Bray's nuts right now, I like his upside quite a bit, but I haven't seen enough game film to be sold on the floor of his downside in terms of decision making as it transitions to the NFL level.

[eclipse31satx]

Originally Posted by Exoter175

I'm on Bray's nuts right now, I like his upside quite a bit, but I haven't seen enough game film to be sold on the floor of his downside in terms of decision making as it transitions to the NFL level.

i've liked what i've seen. there are some youtube highlights of a few of his games this year. he had some trouble near the end of the year but which of the college QBs this year didnt. i believe when this season started he was ranked the #3 QB behind barkley and g smith. most of the experts reports i have read on him love his agility, athleticism and his arm but they do say he will need a coach to bring him along. i agree in that his decision making will need some work.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Exoter175

I'm on Bray's nuts right now, I like his upside quite a bit, but I haven't seen enough game film to be sold on the floor of his downside in terms of decision making as it transitions to the NFL level.

Ah, we have found the problem.

The floor absolutely does not matter for a potential staring QB. Zero. Less than zero. If he isn't a franchise QB, or on the arc to become one, then you need to be moving on to the next guy. It is worse to have the 18th best QB in the league than the 30th best. Why? Because you keep hoping the 18th best guy will get you there, but unless you have an elite once in decade defense, he never ever will. But you keep avoiding the decision to move on because he is just good enough to tease you.

The metric on which to draft is the %chance of becoming a franchise QB. If you don't have a franchise QB and you can draft a guy that is above 30% chance of becoming franchise, you pull the trigger with your first pick. Because if you don't have a franchise QB, your number 1 priority of your franchise is to get one. You keep rolling the dice until you hit.

I don't think Bray has the maturity to accept the coaching that he would need to become a franchise QB, but that is just a very knee jerk impression. I'd need to collect more data.

[eclipse31satx]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I don't think Bray has the maturity to accept the coaching that he would need to become a franchise QB, but that is just a very knee jerk impression. I'd need to collect more data.

the so called experts have also said this. i cant judge his maturity but in my opinion he is every bit as good and possibly better than g smith and i know he's better than barkley with more upside. like all the QBs in this draft and as much as i like him i dont think he is #1 pick. i say again pick a non QB bad ass and get a QB in the 2nd round.

[Ugly Duck]

Originally Posted by clyde05

Hell, if this guy is spot on which is highly unlikely, just take Geno in 2nd round.

Hey! Thats what Mel Kiper says.....

(From Bill Williamson ESPN) Kiper thinks the Chiefs can be one of the top newsmakers in the draft even if they wait until the second round to take a quarterback. Here are his thoughts:

"Kansas City is in line to deliver a huge splash. The Chiefs draft No. 1 overall, and quarterback is a huge need. Right now, I don't have a QB rated among my top 20 overall players, but when that position is a major need, sometimes the value equation changes. That said, what if the Chiefs were to take Te'o with their first pick, and then target value at quarterback early in Round 2, landing them (Geno) Smith?"

[Xanathol]

This mock doesn't even have Mingo in the first, yet most have him as a top 5 pick.... smh

[Sorter]

Originally Posted by Xanathol

This mock doesn't even have Mingo in the first, yet most have him as a top 5 pick.... smh

Well, that is KnowMo for ya...

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by eclipse31satx

the so called experts have also said this. i cant judge his maturity but in my opinion he is every bit as good and possibly better than g smith and i know he's better than barkley with more upside. like all the QBs in this draft and as much as i like him i dont think he is #1 pick. i say again pick a non QB bad ass and get a QB in the 2nd round.

Just watching a little video, he uses a 3/4 delivery, carries the ball too low, and and has poor footwork. The latter two are coachable, but why hasn't he made progress on these issues to date? Tennessee only asks him to read one side of the field on most plays: two options and pick the best one. He'll be asked to do much more the pros. Great arm and quick release are positives -- but he probably has those through natural talent. Where has his game improved as a result of coaching? He has potential, but has he shown any evidence that he wants to reach it? His stats on a per pass basis improved a little between 2010 and 2011, but 2012 is basically the same. I'd like to see more growth. People don't change that much in terms of attitude and work ethic. If he hasn't shown a desire to improve his game so far, I think he is unlikely to be a good prospect for molding into a future franchise QB.