Mellinger: Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver his best season

[DaFace]

Though I know this thread will undoubtedly turn into yet another Alex Smith sucks bitch fest, I thought this was a well-thought-out and reasonable take on the entire Alex Smith situation.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...#storylink=cpy

Alex Smith is out of excuses, and he needs to deliver the best season of his career
BY SAM MELLINGER
smellinger@kcstar.com

Alex Smith can thank the position he plays and the Royals’ run to last year’s World Series, because by now there is no question that his name is the easiest way to start an argument in Kansas City.

Smith is the Chiefs’ quarterback, and three years into his time here, he understands the baggage that comes with that title. He is the eighth backup from somewhere else to start for the Chiefs in the 37 years since they won a game with a quarterback they drafted. He is, depending on how you do the math, the sixth primary quarterback in the 21 years since the Chiefs won a game in the playoffs.

There are those of us who think Smith is a good quarterback. Not great, mind you, but smart and talented in ways that can be accentuated with the right pieces around him.

And there are those of you who think Smith is a noodle-armed, overly risk-averse anvil with a fittingly dull name — a dud at the most important position in American sports.

Those of us on Team Alex like to talk nuance, and bring up the fact that he was drafted by the NFL’s equivalent of the 2005 Royals, a franchise that gave him six coordinators and a botched shoulder surgery in seven years. To us, last year with the Chiefs, Smith showed only that it’s hard to play quarterback when the offensive line often resembles a grade-school game of red rover.

Those of you on the other side are beyond sick of all of that, wondering what excuses we’ll come up with now that Smith is surrounded by a dynamic set of playmakers, an improved (if still suspect) line, and (finally) the same coaches for a third straight year.

And, well … on that point we have no comeback. This is an important year for Smith, and for those of us who believe he has the goods.

If Smith does not have the best year of his career, something has gone wrong. If Smith does not have the best year of his career, and Jeremy Maclin has not suffered an injury and the offensive line is better than a year ago, then something has gone wrong with Smith.

A huge chunk of the Chiefs’ success depends on that not happening.

A huge chunk of their success depends on Smith proving he is more than a guy good enough to almost win with.

-----

Alex Smith is about to have the best of his 10 seasons in the NFL because, finally, the context is right.

He should’ve never been the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. We know that now, and not just because Aaron Rodgers was the second quarterback taken. Smith wasn’t ready. Wasn’t particularly close to ready.

He wasn’t even 21 years old when the 49ers gave him the keys to their disoriented franchise. More reporters covered his first NFL practice than all but his last college game, and the experience spooked him. He admits that now. Says it took years — four, five, maybe more — to get past.

That’s on him. This is where the blame game heats up, so that’s important to say. Smith is not in a position to complain here. He is 31 years old and has been paid well over $60 million during a career that has so far included a 1-2 playoff record. The 49ers should’ve given Smith more support, but he should’ve been better, too.

There have been successes and failures, and he owns the quarterback’s responsibility for both. But he has never been in a position this teed up for success. Not even those last few seasons in San Francisco, when he came within a freak special-teams mistake of the Super Bowl one year and the next season was benched after returning from a concussion despite leading the league in completion percentage.

In Smith’s first five seasons in San Francisco, he needed a competent organization. In his last two seasons there, he needed one that believed in him.

Here, finally, he has both.

This is why some of us believe he is about to have the best season of his career.

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Smith’s strengths are mostly subtle and widely misunderstood. He brings an element of certainty in a game defined by chaos. His quick feet, good instincts on when to break the pocket, and knack for avoiding the hardest collisions are particularly helpful as the Chiefs try to sort out the offensive line.

Game manager has become an overused and somewhat ambiguous term in football, but part of what makes evaluating Smith difficult is that there are not a lot of plays on either extreme. For the most part, he does not throw the boneheaded interception. For the most part, he does not create touchdowns from his own awesomeness. He is more Muzak than Metallica.

But the strengths are there, and not just in the sense that — particularly with Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, Jeremy Maclin and a potentially great defense — avoiding mistakes is a terrific thing.

There was a play last year in Arizona, where Smith ran away from a sack, creating extra time, and threw on the run into a window that hadn’t yet opened. The play probably should’ve been a 6-yard loss. It was a 29-yard gain. It was a terrific play, brilliantly executed, and symbolic in its subtlety.

The window does not exist when Smith makes this pass. pic.twitter.com/mAO8R2l9uH

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

But Smith’s biggest strength is accuracy. At the wonderful Pro Football Focus, they calculate accuracy percentage by taking away drops, spikes, and throw-aways. In their calculations, Smith was at 79.8 percent last season, behind only Drew Brees.

Now, some of that, yes, is a lack of downfield passing. No quarterback threw deep less often than Smith last year. It is an acknowledged point of improvement, both by Smith and Reid.

This is where those of us who believe in Smith are on the hook this year. Because a large part of believing in Smith means believing that his hesitancy to throw deep is at least as much about what he’s been surrounded by.

It’s not just about the offensive line — you need time to throw deep. It’s also about the receivers. Smith has not had receivers capable of getting open down the field, or receivers he fully trusts.

It’s interesting that when Jason Avant signed with the Chiefs late last season, Smith seemed to trust him immediately. Avant is a respected veteran, but he was also cut by the Panthers and turned 32 this year. Still, Smith took chances with Avant that he had not taken before.

A risky deep ball, because Smith trusts the guy he's throwing to. pic.twitter.com/lSiuBaN5at

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

There are reasons to believe that Maclin can have a much bigger impact. Training camp, practices, and preseason games have been full of examples of Smith focusing on Maclin. Smith seems willing to make throws to Maclin that he hasn’t made to anyone in Kansas City.

Here's a touchdown that didn't exist last year, because Smith didn't have a receiver good enough to make this play. pic.twitter.com/6o8TqyoWxV

— KC Star Sports GIFs (@KCStarGifs) September 10, 2015

This is just practice and practice games, of course, so the consequences of failure are negligible. But common sense lines up with what we’ve seen.

Smith is conservative by nature, and he’s not all of the sudden turning into Brett Favre. But he doesn’t need to. The Chiefs don’t want that. They just need him to be willing to gamble a little more knowing he has better cards and a better understanding of what’s around him than at any point in his career.

Which is why this has to be the year.

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One of the problems with the argument about Alex Smith is that, like most arguments in politics and marriage, we all tend to cherry pick points without really listening to the other side.

But one of the tenets of Team Alex is a recognition of the reality that he is the best the Chiefs can do. He is not Aaron Rodgers, but he is not Matt Cassel, either. If the Chiefs had the first pick in 2012, instead of 2013, Smith would be somewhere else and Kansas City would be obsessed with Andrew Luck.

But, like a B student who has to study a little harder on the SAT, teams without that top-tier franchise quarterback have to work a little harder on the rest of the roster. In that way, Smith is in the best position of his career.

Assuming the offensive line is improved, there is more than enough around Smith for him to shake the notion that he is holding back the bigger cause. Those of us on his side of Kansas City’s biggest sports debate are counting on that.

If it doesn’t happen this year, we’re all out of excuses.

[rabblerouser]

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Williams

Fisher will disrupt line chemistry with his inevitable suckitude.

Best to cut bait now.

That might be a bit extreme lol

[milkman]

Originally Posted by FringeNC

You're being disingenuous and you know it, given your remark in the other thread, but whatever. I've happy we won and hope Fisher gets healthy.

If you didn't agree that he was "utterly dominated" then you should have clarified, because when I read "Yep", that seemed to signify agreement.

[Bob Dole]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

That might be a bit extreme lol

Kind of like most everything that useless **** posts.

[Mav]

I thought clay said it was a lock the Chiefs were losing to the great Brian Hoyer.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by rabblerouser

That might be a bit extreme lol

I will prove to be correct on this.

[RunKC]

3 TD's. Put our team in position for 30 points but our midget kicker missed.

I'm very happy with the offense today

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I'm very happy with the offense today

The offense was mediocre. Two very nice drives in the first half, and not much else.



Turnovers decided this game. We got lucky.

[JakeLV]

Dude, its so old at this point. Ban from more than just the game day thrrad.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by RunKC

3 TD's. Put our team in position for 30 points but our midget kicker missed.

I'm very happy with the offense today

The execution overall was good.

The play calling and overall theme in the 2nd was infuriating.

Reerun is right on that front, and I'm cutting Reid exactly ZERO slack this year, right from the get-go.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by JakeLV

Dude, its so old at this point. Ban from more than just the game day thrrad.

It's unbelievable that he can still do this. You just got to laugh it off at this point.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

It's unbelievable that he can still do this. You just got to laugh it off at this point.

We averaged 4.9 yards per play. That's not good.

It's OK to recognize the offensive performance for what it was: nothing special.

The defense was terrific.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

We averaged 4.9 yards per play. That's not good.

It's OK to recognize the offensive performance for what it was: nothing special.

The defense was terrific.

The offense was being hamstrung in round 2. Our coach is a cautious coward, and Smith could easily out-kick Reid's coverage, so to speak.

[RobBlake]

Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs

We averaged 4.9 yards per play. That's not good.

It's OK to recognize the offensive performance for what it was: nothing special.

The defense was terrific.

lol offense had a great first half. Field goals are great drives too. second half was conservative play calling. Offense played good today.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I'm not throwing stones, I legitimately want to know because I respect your opinion, but where are you at on injuries?

Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, a myriad of other dudes missing serious time changes the equation significantly. Worst case scenario, Charles goes down, misses 8 games, and the narrative is that Alex didn't have his best weapon. Where does your evaluation of him stand then?

{shrug}

It depends. Ultimately our thesis is that Smith has enough weapons to win with. If Charles goes down and he's looking at Davis/West + Maclin and Kelce, I'd say he still has an average to slightly above average set of weapons and he should still be decent. Perhaps the team ceiling drops by a game, but I'm not going to give him a pass for anything.

Kelce going down could actually hurt the most, followed by Maclin.

I guess ultimately my answer is that it would take a pretty catastrophic set of injuries for me to just say 'well he didn't have enough to win'. Essentially, the injuries would have to be enough to wipe out my underlying operating assumption: That Smith has the tools around him to succeed. Losing one T or one pass catcher shouldn't be enough to blow that assumption apart.

This line is going to be fine. And there is enough depth among his weapons that he should be able to lose one of the big ones and still be solid. NFL teams deal with injuries and Smith may have to deal with a couple here and there. If he's really completely comfortable in this offense now, that shouldn't be an issue for him and he should continue to perform.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Sweet Daddy Williams

I will prove to be correct on this.

Has that ever happened? Will this be a first?

Based on historical perspective, I'd think that smart money goes against you.