QB Impressions

[Direckshun]

First glances at several QBs we're going to give a shit about over the next four months. Feel free to set me straight.

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
6'4", 230 lbs
26-9 TD-INT, 59%, 2925 passing yards

I get a Cutlerian vibe from this guy. Seems to be built like a franchise QB. Powerful arm, some beautiful passes, perfect bodytype. But he is lacking an "it" factor, is he not? He's not a world-beating, overcome-the-odds, particularly spiriting QB. Looks like he could have an okay career in the NFL in which he wins nothing of consequence.

Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
6'3", 220 lbs
30-6 TD-INT, 69%, 3748 passing yards

Well if there was one Andy Reid QB in this entire draft, it's Trubisky, isn't it? Super accurate, doesn't take too many risks with the ball, is very mentally tough and very athletic. He's a slam dunk for the Chiefs to trade up for, if he lasts to the 20s, but in a QB-starved NFL with at least 6 new head coaches looking for their QB, there's no chance he lasts to us.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by RunKC

SiriusXM NFL Radio

Jim Miller on Brad Kaaya: Thats a guy you can develop! Clean footwork, makes ALL the throws... Kirwan: I'd like to have him on MY team

Underrated QB choice for Chiefs IMO

Brad Kaaya, Miami
Games Played: 38 |
Passer Efficiency Rating: 150.3 |
AY/A: 8.9

Top Statistical Comp: Byron Leftwich

Brad Kaaya's reputation with scouts doesn't seem to be overly rosy as Kiper listed him fifth among these players. But when it comes to statistics, he's the closest we've got to fitting the blueprint.

The big thing working in Kaaya's favor is his number of games played. As you'll recall, we're looking for guys with around 36 games played, and he's the only guy in this class who exceeds that number. In this department, Kaaya is solid. His efficiency, though, leaves something to be desired.

Kaaya's passer efficiency rating ranks fourth of our five quarterbacks. If we combine this group of five with the 55 other first-round pick quarterbacks since 1995, Kaaya ranks just 39th. It's also right in the range where we saw busts in the previous slide.

His AY/A is a bit more favorable, sitting 31st in this group of 60 and third among the incoming quarterbacks. However, it still falls a bit short of what we're looking for. You can see why this draft class presents a dilemma: the only guy with the requisite level of experience had mediocre efficiency. It's hard to get too excited about any of the crop.

There is a bit of a saving grace, though, for Kaaya in that he plays in the ACC. This is the same conference as both Trubisky and Watson, meaning we can check out how they each fared when facing common opponents. Kaaya and Trubisky faced seven common teams this year, and here's how they performed in those contests.

Against Common OpponentsAttemptsYardsTouchdownsInterceptionsAY/A
Brad Kaaya2382,0441539.28
Mitch Trubisky2512,1321849.21

And here's how Kaaya compared against five common opponents to Watson.

Against Common OpponentsAttemptsYardsTouchdownsInterceptionsAY/A
Brad Kaaya1741,420928.68
DeShaun Watson2471,9281287.32

If you're looking at raw yardage, you're not going to be Kaaya's biggest fan. However, he did get more bang for his buck thanks to a higher yards per attempt and AY/A while successfully avoiding interceptions. He had higher efficiency than both of these guys while facing the same defenses, and he tops both in games played. That's a glimmer of hope.

Kaaya's basic draft profile is this: gobs of experience without overwhelming efficiency. How does that fit into the mold? We can take a peak by looking at quarterbacks with a similar profile coming out.

Of the past 55 quarterbacks selected in the first round, 23 of them had started between 34 and 42 games (four games in each direction from Kaaya). Two of those had an AY/A near Kaaya's. Here's a look at Kaaya's profile side by side with theirs.

QuarterbackGamesPass. Eff. RatAY/A
Byron Leftwich36156.59
Brad Kaaya38150.38.9
Blake Bortles34163.48.8

This is why Leftwich wound up being Kaaya's top comp as they're relatively close across the board. Blake Bortles is far from being a flattering second choice, never finishing higher than 19th in Total NEP in his three qualified seasons, including a 28th-place finish this year.

The positive of Kaaya is that his questions will likely come at a discount. Because he's held in much lower regard, he'll likely wind up being available on either the second or third day of the draft, so the costs of potential shortcomings are less extreme. He has the experience you want, and his efficiency was above that of both Trubisky and Watson against common opponents. That should be enough to justify a gamble later on, even if he's far from being a surefire stud.


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[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'd be jumping up and down if they take Mahomes at 27, Billay.

I was a huge Brett Favre fan and if they draft Mahomes, both sides of the football will be fun to watch.

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Games Played: 30 |
Passer Efficiency Rating: 157.0 |
AY/A: 9.2

Top Statistical Comp: Steve McNair

If we were judging this based just on collegiate efficiency, then Patrick Mahomes would hold the top spot. He had the best AY/A in the class, and his passer efficiency rating was second by a hair. With the discrepancy between Kaaya and Mahomes in games played, though, Mahomes slides down to a respectable second.

Mahomes took big strides between his 2015 sophomore season and last year in limiting interceptions, something that helped vault him to the top of this list. He threw 15 picks as a sophomore, leading the Big 12, but he cut that to 10 this year despite adding 18 more total attempts. When you couple that with a gaudy 41 touchdowns, it's easy to see how his AY/A got so meaty.

This isn't to say he cowers over previous first-round picks, though. Going back to our group of 60 candidates, Mahomes ranks 26th in AY/A and 29th in passer efficiency rating. This is all while starting for just two-plus seasons, limiting him to 30 games played. Even the elite in this class bring some serious questions.

Whenever Mahomes' name is brought up this draft season, you can bet someone will make mention of his playing in the Big 12. This isn't a conference known for stellar defense, potentially tainting his efficiency stats. Looking back at how past Big 12 first-round picks have fared likely won't help his case.

Since 1995, there have been seven quarterbacks from the Big 12 drafted in the first round. Here's a look at how they've fared in the NFL through the eyes of NEP, again focusing on top-15 seasons in years in which they had at least 200 drop backs.

QuarterbackSchoolTop-15 NEP SeasonsQualified Seasons
Robert Griffin IIIBaylor13
Sam BradfordOklahoma16
Vince YoungTexas13
Brandon WeedenOklahoma State02
Josh FreemanKansas State14
Ryan TannehillTexas A&M15
Blaine GabbertMissouri03

In 26 qualified seasons, former Big 12 quarterbacks have finished in the top 15 in Total NEP just five times. Sam Bradford didn't get his first top-15 finish until this year. You can bet Mahomes is going to hear about this, whether it's fair or not.

Perhaps it's fitting, then, that Mahomes' top comp is the late Steve McNair, who played his college ball at Alcorn State, which was -- at the time -- Division I-AA. His stats there weren't anything otherworldly, either, and he and Mahomes line up well across the board.

QuarterbackGamesPass. Eff. Rat.AY/A
Steve McNair33155.49.0
Patrick Mahomes30157.09.2

McNair was a tremendous NFL player despite putting up just decent stats against lower-level competition in college; it's probably not right to write off Mahomes simply because he played in an offensive-minded conference.

Mahomes is similar to Kaaya in that he's not likely to cost a team a first-round pick. That makes any warts and worries he may present less frightening. He showed some reasons for excitement when he was at Texas Tech, and it would seem fully justifiable to target him at some point beyond the first round.


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[Quesadilla Joe]

Among the top QBs, as they leave Indy, consensus among teams I talked to was that Clemson's Deshaun Watson had the strongest week overall.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 5, 2017

And that's including the whole deal -- interviews, on-field work, testing, etc.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 5, 2017

Thing that teams liked about Watson in interviews: Asked why teams should draft him, Watson prioritized team accomplishments on his resume.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 5, 2017

[KChiefs1]

https://youtu.be/NVd-GRvphAM








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[MahiMike]

I'm leaning towards all or nothing on Watson. At least he's a winner. That's something that can't be measured enough.

Plus, the likeness to Alex Smith makes him a good fit.

[RunKC]

Josh Dobbs is intriguing. Solid body, outstanding athleticism, solid arm, pro style QB.

47.7% completion percentage and 14 TD's from throws of 21+yards. That's damn good.

[staylor26]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Josh Dobbs is intriguing. Solid body, outstanding athleticism, solid arm, pro style QB.

47.7% completion percentage and 14 TD's from throws of 21+yards. That's damn good.

After the top 4, Dobbs and Kaaya are the most intriguing IMO

[O.city]

This draft is so stacked all the way thru, I'm starting to lean towards punting on the Qb this year. If they're gonna go with Smith next year which it appears they are, just keep building the roster.

A similar haul to the last 2 years would be a really huge building block.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

This draft is so stacked all the way thru, I'm starting to lean towards punting on the Qb this year. If they're gonna go with Smith next year which it appears they are, just keep building the roster.

A similar haul to the last 2 years would be a really huge building block.

Yeah, I hate it, but I'm off the trade-up bandwagon. The draft's just too good everywhere else this year.

It isn't a "this year's QB class sucks" thing; I feel like this class is largely average. It's just that the rest of this draft is so damn deep. There are going to be OLBs, Ss and CBs in the 3rd and 4th rounds that will start and play extremely well next season. WR and RB looks awfully deep and this is probably the most athletic group of TEs in history.

There are going to be some damn good players in this draft. Now, if Mahomes, Kizer or Watson are sitting there at 27, I'd definitely give them strong consideration (sadly, Kizer has fallen to the bottom of my list; bad feet, seemed almost disinterested at the combine), but I don't think we can justify moving significant draft capital to move up.

Hell, the 'depth' theme of this draft extends to the QBs. There's not a ton of ceiling here but there's as much mid-round talent as you'll ever see with guys like Webb, Dobbs and Peterman, not to mention guys I personally hate like Kelly and Kaaya. I'm not convinced that you're orders of magnitude more likely to get a great QB in the first this year than you are in the 3rd or 4th.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by O.city

This draft is so stacked all the way thru, I'm starting to lean towards punting on the Qb this year. If they're gonna go with Smith next year which it appears they are, just keep building the roster.

A similar haul to the last 2 years would be a really huge building block.

11 picks. No reason we can't do both.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

11 picks. No reason we can't do both.

I just don't think I'd go giving up high rounders to move up for any of these QBs.

As DJLN has said, there are just so many good prospects in this draft. It's a great draft to start getting some legit high end talent for really cheap.

CB, RB, TE, ILB etc.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yeah, I hate it, but I'm off the trade-up bandwagon. The draft's just too good everywhere else this year.

It isn't a "this year's QB class sucks" thing; I feel like this class is largely average. It's just that the rest of this draft is so damn deep. There are going to be OLBs, Ss and CBs in the 3rd and 4th rounds that will start and play extremely well next season. WR and RB looks awfully deep and this is probably the most athletic group of TEs in history.

There are going to be some damn good players in this draft. Now, if Mahomes, Kizer or Watson are sitting there at 27, I'd definitely give them strong consideration (sadly, Kizer has fallen to the bottom of my list; bad feet, seemed almost disinterested at the combine), but I don't think we can justify moving significant draft capital to move up.

Hell, the 'depth' theme of this draft extends to the QBs. There's not a ton of ceiling here but there's as much mid-round talent as you'll ever see with guys like Webb, Dobbs and Peterman, not to mention guys I personally hate like Kelly and Kaaya. I'm not convinced that you're orders of magnitude more likely to get a great QB in the first this year than you are in the 3rd or 4th.

Sure, if one falls to them that they love, I'm all for it.

But if they can duplicate the last 2 drafts with this much talent, it will be instrumental in turning the cap situation around and really solidifying this thing.

[BryanBusby]

Originally Posted by O.city

I just don't think I'd go giving up high rounders to move up for any of these QBs.

As DJLN has said, there are just so many good prospects in this draft. It's a great draft to start getting some legit high end talent for really cheap.

CB, RB, TE, ILB etc.

Have no idea why you really need to move up to get a QB. If anything, they would be overdrafting by taking one at 27 and would have the flexibility to move down.

[O.city]

I actually agree somewhat. I think we could see a 2013 all over again, where teh QB's go much lower than everyone seems to think.

[kccrow]

I have no problem with the team giving up their 3rd to get to 20/21 if there is a QB there they really like. If they go higher, and have to give up a 2nd, I'm not so high on that.