2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

[duncan_idaho]

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I've not seen him play so I'm just going by what I've read. It does seem at least a little counter-intuitive.

That said, low-level minor leaguers often struggle to throw strikes. You can draw walks at the lower levels simply by not swinging; you don't exactly have to be discerning about it. It doesn't suggest a good feel for the strike zone, just that he has a ton of raw power and that guys are throwing him carefully to deal with it.

Finally, you can absolutely have a good feel for where the strike zone is without knowing what a pitch is going to do. If you throw me a fastball, I may be able to determine that it's going to be out of the zone fairly easily and lay off it. That doesn't mean I'm necessarily going to be able to pick up that little red disc on the ball when you throw me a slider, gauge the tilt and do anything with it.

Yeah, strike zone judgment and pitch recognition often do go hand in hand, but not always. Starling could very easily be sitting fastball, spotting them when they're wide, punishing them when they're not and simply getting eating alive when they're not fastballs at all.

One doesn't strike out 70 times in 200 ABs in rookie ball if he has an easy time picking up breaking balls.

Yeah, but you rarely see guys drawing walks at an elite rate (like Starling did) completely fall off the map.

Guys that really have the knack for drawing walks tend to have pretty flat or steady walk rates (look at Adam Dunn, who has walked at a 15-16 percent clip his entire career).

It's just one more thing about Starling that's confusing as a prospect. One of the hardest guys to put a finger on in years.

[WhawhaWhat]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Go to work downtown, grab a bite to eat, and walk to the stadium...maybe grab a few drinks after the game... Weird, I know.

You can eat and/or drink before and after the games now.

[Nightfyre]

Just comparing the eye-test to the slash lines here, nothing too fancy.

The Offense:

Alex Gordon (.378/.410/.578)
Alex Gordon is really on top of his game, but let’s be realistic. He hit .294/.368/.471 last year, so it is likely he will return back down to earth a little bit. However, he did get off to a slow start last year, so that gives me a little hope that he may just tear the league up this year.

Billy Butler (.276/.382/.517)
Billy had a slow first few games but has begun to pick it back up on this home stand. His productivity will likely increase over the course of the year.

Alcides Escobar (.306/.359/.472)
Escobar has improved over last year’s line. However, his walk rate is up a tick, which at least could be an indication that the game is slowing down a little for him. His increased level of success could be sustainable.

Lorenzo Cain (.296/.375/.370)
Cain has a much better slash line than last year. His approach at the plate does not appear to match his productivity, so I doubt this will be sustainable. However, moderate improvement over last year’s production is certainly not out of the question, given that he is finally healthy.

Frenchy (.286/.306/.457)
Frenchy’s production will revert to last year’s form. His approach hasn’t changed a bit and will not magically succeed all of a sudden at the major league level.

Eric Hosmer (.269/.387/.308)
I will hold out hope that Hosmer can manifest to become a star at this level. His OBP is pretty crazy thusfar this year. Maybe his power will come around? He is a giant question mark.

Mike Moustakas (.194/.265/.258)
Moustakas’s productivity will undoubtedly increase. However, will he be the .250 hitter of last year or will he step up and become a major league force. Another major question mark.

Salvador Perez (.263/.284/.342)
Salvy’s productivity will increase just based on the eye-test. He is outperforming his statistics at the plate. He consistently makes great contact. One concern I have is that he presses with men on base. I would like to see him be more selective in his approach as well. Getting better pitches and more walks would really bolster his game.

Chris Getz (.241/.241/.379)
Getz should see a marginal increase in production. His complete lack of walks is astounding.



Overall, I would estimate that the offense should see an increase in productivity over the course of the season.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

So, is the Royal's success sustainable. Sure we probably won't be like 108-54 at the end of the year, but can we win first place? Can we win it with a comfortable margin? Can we compete in the playoffs? Anyone care to offer any analysis towards one argument or another?

This is a real, legit 85-win team, so they don't have to overachieve by much.

In prior years, overachieving meant we scratched, clawed, and lucked our way into not losing 100 games. This year, overachieving probably means playoffs.

[gblowfish]

Since the Royals are out to a good start -and they NEVER get out to a good start- I'm amending my thinking to believe they have a legit chance to go .500 this year. I'm not going to hope for much more than that, because I think .500 is a realistic goal. Anything beyond that is wonderful progress for this franchise.

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Since the Royals are out to a good start -and they NEVER get out to a good start- I'm amending my thinking to believe they have a legit chance to go .500 this year. I'm not going to hope for much more than that, because I think .500 is a realistic goal. Anything beyond that is wonderful progress for this franchise.

For all the Royals gave up in the trade, .500 just isn't enough for me. Enough of the loser mentality!

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Since the Royals are out to a good start -and they NEVER get out to a good start- I'm amending my thinking to believe they have a legit chance to go .500 this year. I'm not going to hope for much more than that, because I think .500 is a realistic goal. Anything beyond that is wonderful progress for this franchise.

Just 2 years ago they were 10-4 out of the gate.

[DeezNutz]

If this team will really be an 85-90 win team, they'll need to hit for more power. Right now, that's a big worry.

[Nightfyre]

I have real concerns with how the Royals prospects are transitioning to the major league level. Is it coaching? Why do we hate OBP? Why are other teams prospects flourishing while ours are circling the toilet?

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Since the Royals are out to a good start -and they NEVER get out to a good start- I'm amending my thinking to believe they have a legit chance to go .500 this year. I'm not going to hope for much more than that, because I think .500 is a realistic goal. Anything beyond that is wonderful progress for this franchise.

The Royals started out 10-4 in April of 2011, they went 4-9 for the rest of the month. They were 5 games under .500 by the end of May and 15 games under .500 by the end of June.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Just 2 years ago they were 10-4 out of the gate.

Difference is that was very fluky. This is not fluky, at least so far.

[gblowfish]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

The Royals started out 10-4 in April of 2011, they went 4-9 for the rest of the month. They were 5 games under .500 by the end of May and 15 games under .500 by the end of June.

Yeah I know. That's why I'm not running to Vegas with a second mortgage or anything....

But I am cautiously optimistic. And that's a big step for me.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

The Royals started out 10-4 in April of 2011, they went 4-9 for the rest of the month. They were 5 games under .500 by the end of May and 15 games under .500 by the end of June.

[WoodDraw]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Plate discipline isn't just about Ks. It's about strike zone judgment. Starling walked 14.25 percent of the time last season, which is well above average (average is about 8 percent).

It actually was the most encouraging thing about his debut season.

Yeah, I know; I just don't buy his walk rate. I think it'll collapse as he sees better pitching.

All of his stats just don't scan. I won't beat up on him this early though.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

The Royals started out 10-4 in April of 2011, they went 4-9 for the rest of the month. They were 5 games under .500 by the end of May and 15 games under .500 by the end of June.

They also were rolling out a starting staff of:

Bruce Chen
Jeff Francis
Luke Hochevar
Kyle Davies
Sean O'Sullivan

There was little reason to believe that pitching staff could sustain the early success. Compare it to:

Shields
Santana
Guthrie
Davis
Mendoza

It's not a stretch to say Mendoza would have been the best starter on that 2011 team.