2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

[duncan_idaho]

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[Walrus]

Mondesi + for Stanton, Mondesi for Wong? Barf

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

His numbers at AA last year are nearly identical to Wong's.

Colon: .289/.364/.392 | .756 OPS | 16 XBH in 270 AB | 12/18 SB
Wong: .287/.348/.405 | .754 OPS | 38 XBH in 520 AB | 21/32 SB

Wong hit for slightly more power (Colon projected to 31 XBH in same number of AB as Wong) but Colon was slightly better at getting on base. Neither is a guy who should be trying to steal bases in the major leagues.

Colon was actually BETTER at Omaha than he was at AAA, too, in an extremely small sample size (17 AB).

If Colon was shitty last year, so was Wong...

That's why I can't see them moving even Calixte for Wong. Christian Colon is practically the same player, and he has more positional versatility.

Colon was shitty for a great deal of the season at AA and had a nice hot streak to boost his numbers. It was also over a pretty small sample and it was his 2nd attempt at the level, which is a huge deal. If you compare Wong's first season at AA to Colon's first season at AA, Wong clearly beats him. And Wong did it while a year younger than Colon on his first go-round. So it's not entirely fair to compare a 23 yr old in his 2nd attempt at AA to a 21 yr old in his first attempt, is it? And I say that being fully prepared to say that I was very underwhelmed by Wong last year and expected a lot more of him after his performance in High A.

Now if Colon comes back this year and hits well at AAA, you're onto something, but Colon failed with regularity his first 2 years as a professional and I'd be pretty hesitant to say that a nice month in AA trumps all that.

This year will say a ton about both players, but I suspect that Wong will show himself a superior prospect by a fair amount by season's end and while 2 years younger, which is a pretty big deal. And like I said, the guys that are willing to put projections on minor leaguers (ZIPS, OLIVER and a few others) believe that Wong could outplay Chris Getz by a significant amount if called up today. They aren't as bullish on Colon.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Sure, if they were willing to trade him.

I'd swap Mondesi and Starling in the asking price there and see if I could get away with it. Rest of the package looks reasonable, I guess.

If they managed to trade for Stanton, you'd hope part of the trade is an immediate extension that buys out at least a year or two of FA for him. He's only controlled through 2016.

If Stanton goes on the block, they go to the Rangers and ask for Profar and probably a high end arm or two (Scheppers would be appealing for Miami).

And the Rangers will say yes, IMO. While there appears to be an outside chance that Mondesi is a Profar level prospect in a couple of years but he's not there yet. If the Marlins are looking to make a trade now, the Rangers will absolutely bite and have the best package to offer, IMO.

If the Rangers went to Profar, Scheppers and Ott for Stanton, the Marlins would take it and the Rangers should probably do it even at that sky-high price.

I just don't see the timing working out in KC's favor. Mondesi is way too young to project yet and nobody's going to give major value for him until he's beating up AA pitching at least.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Side note: Who ranked WOng as a top 50 prospect? BA and BP both had him in the top 100, but down around the 80-90 area.

SCOUT had him at 57, which was a little lower than I recalled.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If Stanton goes on the block, they go to the Rangers and ask for Profar and probably a high end arm or two (Scheppers would be appealing for Miami).

And the Rangers will say yes, IMO. While there appears to be an outside chance that Mondesi is a Profar level prospect in a couple of years but he's not there yet. If the Marlins are looking to make a trade now, the Rangers will absolutely bite and have the best package to offer, IMO.

If the Rangers went to Profar, Scheppers and Ott for Stanton, the Marlins would take it and the Rangers should probably do it even at that sky-high price.

I just don't see the timing working out in KC's favor. Mondesi is way too young to project yet and nobody's going to give major value for him until he's beating up AA pitching at least.

Stop forcing our dreams down the toilet, please. I don't care how outlandish they may be.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Colon was shitty for a great deal of the season at AA and had a nice hot streak to boost his numbers. It was also over a pretty small sample and it was his 2nd attempt at the level, which is a huge deal. If you compare Wong's first season at AA to Colon's first season at AA, Wong clearly beats him. And Wong did it while a year younger than Colon on his first go-round. So it's not entirely fair to compare a 23 yr old in his 2nd attempt at AA to a 21 yr old in his first attempt, is it? And I say that being fully prepared to say that I was very underwhelmed by Wong last year and expected a lot more of him after his performance in High A.

Now if Colon comes back this year and hits well at AAA, you're onto something, but Colon failed with regularity his first 2 years as a professional and I'd be pretty hesitant to say that a nice month in AA trumps all that.

This year will say a ton about both players, but I suspect that Wong will show himself a superior prospect by a fair amount by season's end and while 2 years younger, which is a pretty big deal. And like I said, the guys that are willing to put projections on minor leaguers (ZIPS, OLIVER and a few others) believe that Wong could outplay Chris Getz by a significant amount if called up today. They aren't as bullish on Colon.

I'm aware that age (17 months difference) and repeating the level definitely make Wong's numbers pop out a little bit more, but it doesn't really make Wong profile that much better as a major league guy.

I don't trust much regarding ZIPS and OLIVER projections for minor league guys. The same projections LOVED Chris Getz just a few seasons ago, as well as Kila Ka'ahuie. I definitely don't think I buy Wong as a .270 hitter in MLB this year.

I wouldn't call Colon's debut season in Wilmington in 2010 a "failure" by any means. That's an incredibly difficult hitting environment, and Colon's numbers profile just fine next to some of the better hitters to move through the KC system (Moustakas, Hosmer, Giavotella, etc.).

He was extremely disappointing in 2011 and looked to bounce back nicely last year despite missing time to injury. Wil Myers also failed at a disastrous level at NWA in 2011. Something in the water?

All in all, he played just a shade over 3 months of baseball last year and put up very solid numbers.

This year will be very telling.

I'm also not saying Wong is garbage or anything. He's a nice player and is likely to be a very solid second-division 2B for a decade or so. If offered a chance to do a straight-up swap of the two, I would do it without blinking.

Just don't think there's enough separation to warrant moving a guy like Calixte, whom the organization is EXTREMELY high on and thinks is ready to blow up this season.

[gblowfish]

There's nothing worse than a failing Colon.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

If Stanton goes on the block, they go to the Rangers and ask for Profar and probably a high end arm or two (Scheppers would be appealing for Miami).

And the Rangers will say yes, IMO. While there appears to be an outside chance that Mondesi is a Profar level prospect in a couple of years but he's not there yet. If the Marlins are looking to make a trade now, the Rangers will absolutely bite and have the best package to offer, IMO.

If the Rangers went to Profar, Scheppers and Ott for Stanton, the Marlins would take it and the Rangers should probably do it even at that sky-high price.

I just don't see the timing working out in KC's favor. Mondesi is way too young to project yet and nobody's going to give major value for him until he's beating up AA pitching at least.

I agree with all of this. Stanton would make WAY too much sense for the Rangers, and I bet they could pull that off for 2/3 you mention, plus another guy (Maybe Grimm).

The Royals' trade chips in the minors should be much more appealing at the end of the season than they currently are (one level closer for everyone).

[duncan_idaho]

Side note: Mike Montgomery made his first start in the Rays org the other day. 3 2/3, 3 BB, no K, 2 ER.

Will be interesting to see if they can find a fix. If they can't, no one can. Just such a strange case of failure.

[SPATCH]

If anybody finds a good image from the game today, I would like to update my facebook banner..

Exceptional images from previous games will do, as well..

[teedubya]

I was at opening day... Row B. Amazing infield dugout seats...

Here's Gordon's RBI single.


Here's Butler's RBI single.


And a photo finish with Relish and Mustard....

[SPATCH]

Nice ****ing seats man.

[Saul Good]

Is there anything more depressing than the second home game of the season?

[teedubya]

Originally Posted by the_spatula

Nice ****ing seats man.

Thanks man. It was ****ing awesome. I'd never been to Opening Day before... glad I went.

And the iPhone and Samsung both take amazing pictures... you can see the ball in each one of those shots if you look. [I have two phones due to work, bleh]

[KevB]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'm aware that age (17 months difference) and repeating the level definitely make Wong's numbers pop out a little bit more, but it doesn't really make Wong profile that much better as a major league guy.

I don't trust much regarding ZIPS and OLIVER projections for minor league guys. The same projections LOVED Chris Getz just a few seasons ago, as well as Kila Ka'ahuie. I definitely don't think I buy Wong as a .270 hitter in MLB this year.

I wouldn't call Colon's debut season in Wilmington in 2010 a "failure" by any means. That's an incredibly difficult hitting environment, and Colon's numbers profile just fine next to some of the better hitters to move through the KC system (Moustakas, Hosmer, Giavotella, etc.).

He was extremely disappointing in 2011 and looked to bounce back nicely last year despite missing time to injury. Wil Myers also failed at a disastrous level at NWA in 2011. Something in the water?

All in all, he played just a shade over 3 months of baseball last year and put up very solid numbers.

This year will be very telling.

I'm also not saying Wong is garbage or anything. He's a nice player and is likely to be a very solid second-division 2B for a decade or so. If offered a chance to do a straight-up swap of the two, I would do it without blinking.

Just don't think there's enough separation to warrant moving a guy like Calixte, whom the organization is EXTREMELY high on and thinks is ready to blow up this season.

Key point is that DJ is suggesting Wong to be an option at 2B right now at the major league level, so we're not really comparing prospect value Wong vs. Colon. We're actually comparing what each player would give the major league club today in place of Getz. So, the age/level difference is largely irrelevant. Neither profile to be upper end at the position, so you don't trade a SS with significant upside when you already have a middling/similar prospect at AAA.