Big 10 Report: Conference Realignment

[Mr. Laz]

A source in St. Louis familiar with the situation told NewsCenter 16 Thursday afternoon that Missouri will leave the Big XII and soon join the Big 10. Other schools expected to follow the Tigers are Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers and Nebraska.

Many have speculated that such an expansion would include Notre Dame but ND athletic director Jack Swarbrick told me today that the Irish prefer to stay independent in football and in the Big East for other sports. Swarbrick said maintaining football Independence is such a part of what Notre Dame is.

He went on to say the Big East is a great partner for the University in other sports.

"We do have to monitor what is going on," Swarbrick said. "There will be significant shifts. "Hopefully we can navigate them by keeping our football independent and keeping our Big East affiliation because that is what we care about."

The move of Syracuse, Pitt and Rutgers to the Big Ten from the Big East could categorically change the landscape of the Big East itself. Thus, what Swarbrick is referring to when stating the University must continue to monitor what is going on.

The interview with Swarbrick was done before the late afternoon announcement.

http://www.wndu.com/sports/headlines/92447574.html

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by luv

Then it sounds like MU and NU won't have to worry.

probably not ... i would put the chance of MU joining the Big 10 at 70-80%.

Definitely more likely than not imo

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

http://www.nctimes.com/sports/column...f0e84ddb6.html

Notre Dame gets around 9 million from NBC. Plus throw in the BCS contract, BE tv reveune, and others its around 15 million.

Big Ten schools get 22 million each.

I'll look for the link, but I read an interview where it was intimated that ND gets much more from NBC than is reported.

Got it:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...cDiYwD9FP5MQO0

Media reports have said Notre Dame receives $15 million (not 9, per your claim) annually from NBC to broadcast its home games each year. Richard Sheehan, a Notre Dame finance professor who has been involved in past negotiations with NBC, believes that figure is low.

"The NBC contract is more lucrative than pretty much anyone knows," he said.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

No team can guarantee a BCS appearance at 8 wins, and no Big 10 team can tell a recruit they'll play at USC once or twice in their career, as well as Michigan, on the east coast, etc. Plus, the Big 10's reputation is shot right now, just like Notre Dame's.... maybe they should join the SEC with Kansas.

Notre Dame could still play anyone they wanted in non-con

[OnTheWarpath15]

Notre Dame losing prestige...



Haters gonna hate.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Laz

Notre Dame could still play anyone they wanted in non-con

What, 3 games? 4?

Or, they can stay put for all the positives Bearcat, I and others have listed, and play whoever the **** they want.

Why be limited to playing 80% of your games in the midwest, when you annually split your games almost equally between the midwest, west coast and east coast?

[Al Bundy]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Yeah, it's stupid to think of things from a business perspective.

Dan Patrick interviewed Brian Kelly and Kelly flat out said that moving to the B10 would HURT recruiting. They'd become a regional school instead of a national school.

He said something along the lines of their current recruitment across the country, coast-to-coast, and that it's a huge advantage for a east coast kid to know that ND will play several EC games, same with the West Coast.

Holtz, old and senile as he is, also made a good point on ESPN. ND is the only school in the nation that could go into California and steal a top prospect from USC. Same in Texas. Same in Florida.

Only the ND haters refuse to see all of this.

All those advantages and they still suck....

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by UCFGoldenKnight

All those advantages and they still suck....

And?

It's not because they aren't affiliated with a conference, so I'm not sure the point, other than to hate.

I don't have an affiliation with a NCAA university, so it's funny to sit back and read this 1400 post thread, with the majority of it being either KU fan scared shitless they are going to be left out in the cold, or now the ND hate.

It's a comical read. It'll be interesting to see what, if anything, actually happens.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by Laz

Notre Dame could still play anyone they wanted in non-con

Yeah, but they would be competing for BCS spots with 10+ win teams, so they aren't going to just go out and play USC every year. Right now they have the freedom to schedule whoever they want, and as long as they win 8 games, they are BCS eligible.

It's a choice between fighting for one of (maybe) 2 BCS spots by winning 10+ games, or getting a BCS spot for winning 8 games.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Yeah, but they would be competing for BCS spots with 10+ win teams, so they aren't going to just go out and play USC every year. Right now they have the freedom to schedule whoever they want, and as long as they win 8 games, they are BCS eligible.

It's a choice between fighting for one of (maybe) 2 BCS spots by winning 10+ games, or getting a BCS spot for winning 8 games.

Exactly.

[Mecca]

This idea that ND will ever join a conference is funny, every single team in the nation wishes it had ND's deal.

Going to the Big 10 would not help them in any way shape or form.

[HolyHandgernade]

I still think what you are seeing is a lot of misdirection for a lot of various reasons. Here's my "conspiracy theory".

I think most conferences, privately (some publicly), are actually convinced 12 teams is the "right" size for a conference and that 16 is just too unweildly and actually begins to dilute your product. I also believe most conferences believe there are only two real "prizes" out there - Notre Dame and Texas. Most of the "scenarios" that are "leaked" to the public are actually attempts to see if a poaching conference can get one of those two to jump to them or at least shake one out of its current conference bond. But, Notre Dame seems hell bent on maintaining neutrality and Texas either feels handcuffed about its options (a Longhorn Network and weighted vs shared revenue splits) or its sister institutions (A&M, Tech and Baylor). That said, I see this as the scenario that unfolds, not saying it will, this is just my prediction:

What is really motivating Big 10 expansion? If you already make all that money, why do you want to split it up even more? Sure, viewership of the network is important, but are there really that many more viewers that Missouri actually delivers to justify another cut in the pie? What the Big 10 (and PAC-10) really craves is a football championship game to market. The Big 10 doesn't really want Missouri or Nebraska (Mizzou delivers a decent population number but not a lot of program prestige, Nebraska is the opposite). Rutgers doesn't really add that "wow" factor. So, although its football program is currently "down", I think they want Syracuse and that Syracuse actually delivers a greater New York viewership than Rutgers ever can, even if its only draw is basketball, they believe that amount of viewership alone can offset their cut of the network pie. With the increased revenue, Syracuse believes it can get its football program back to at least a mid level competitive BCS program. If this falls through, I predict the Big 10 will go South, inviting either Maryland, Miami or Florida State.

The PAC-10 has had a long standing relationship with the Big-10 and also craves a football championship game. Plus, they're still interested in maintaining the "tradition" of the Rose Bowl arrangement. Thus, they want to mirror the Big-10, not over size it. The PAC-10 is tight because each team in the conference has a natural rival, so it makes sense to continue this trend. Colorado doesn't really give them that. Texas-Texas A&M could, but they run into the same "Tech" problem the Big 10 can't shake loose either. This makes Utah-BYU the most natural fit for the conference even if the programs aren't traditional BCS powers. It also makes more sense geographically grouping the "states" of Utah, Arizona, and Southern California in the the South division and Washington, Oregon, and and Northern California in the the North.

The only problem with this is that it might not be enough in order to launch the other aspect they would like to mirror the Big 10 in, a dedicated conference network. But, while the PAC-10 likes to mirror and has a relationship with the Big-10 it also has developed a strong working relationship with the Big 12. This would make the Partnership approach between these two conferences the most logical answer. By instituting a "cross-schedule" to replace the "noncon" portion of the schedule, the Partnership would be able to sell an attractive package for a new network with each conference retaining its individual identity. Whereas a "PAC-12" could only sell its conference slate, some bowl games, a championship game and between 1-3 BCS slots, a Partnership can market the cross-conference schedule, the conference slate, a whole slew of minor bowls, 2 championship games, and between 2 and 6 BCS slots. When one couples that with the collective "footprint" the partnership would cover, the revenue would probably match the Big 10 despite having 24 members in the partnership. This seems like the no-brainer option, until we come back to the original problem:

Missouri wants to go to the Big 10 if offered and Nebraska might. So, how do you negotiate a Partnership when you're not sure all your members are on board to do so? This is where the relationships between the Big 12 brass and the PAC-10 brass begin to cause some "calculated worries". A story "leaks" that six Big 12 teams might be invited to join the PAC-10. This creates a panic scenario where Beebe now has to appear as though he will try and save the conference but he needs commitments from wavering institutions. While Missouri and Nebraska would probably go if the Big 10 asked them today, they have no assurances the invitation will ever come. This puts them in potentially the same boat as KU, KSU, Baylor and Iowa State. In other words, the rumor creates the leverage Beebe needs that he otherwise didn't have without the new PAC-10 "threat". The Big 12 probably feels as though they could lose one of the two, but not both to make the partnership work (by adding one new member) and the real member they want is Nebraska which is why you have seen an article or two that hints Nebraska, not Missouri, is the real key to the dominos falling despite the real prizes being Texas and Notre Dame.

So, the real holdup in all of this is not one scenario over another, its that there are so many moving parts to get stabalized in order for the optimal solution to be realized. Most conferences don't want to go to 16 teams, they just want a conference championship game to market.

So, if you didn't want to read the long drawn out reasonings, here's the short answer: Most of the conferences will expand, but not as drastically as we think, The Big 10/11 will actually get a 12th team and no more. The SEC will remain status quo, the Big East and ACC may experience a minor shakeup. The PAC-10 will add Utah and BYU, becoming the PAC-12 which allows for a marketing partnership with the Big 12 as it is already made up. Missouri might go to the Big 10, in which case, the Big 12 will add one new institution.

[Titty Meat]

If Nebraska is offered to join the Big Ten theres no debating they will Mr.Hangrenade.

[DaKCMan AP]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

ND is the only school in the nation that could go into California and steal a top prospect from USC. Same in Texas. Same in Florida.

Only the ND haters refuse to see all of this.

They're one of only a few schools, but definitely not the only school.

[KChiefs1]

http://www.cleveland.com/buckeyeblog...in_big_te.html

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohio State president Gordon Gee had it right on Big Ten expansion two months ago, when he wrote in an email to Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany that "we control our own destiny at the moment, but the window will soon close on us. Agility and swiftness of foot is our friend."

The Pac-10 may have slammed at least one window shut, right on the Big Ten's fingers.

The potential growth of the Big Ten no longer exists in a vacuum, not after Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott told reporters in San Francisco after league meetings on Sunday that he'd been cleared by league presidents to pursue any expansion angles.

Given that multiple reports have the Pac-10 contemplating an offer to six Big 12 schools, including Texas and Oklahoma, it was little surprise that the Big Ten might be moving up its originally stated 12- to 18-month expansion timetable stated in December.

"It's possible that timeline may be altered," Michigan State president Lou Anna Simon, who heads the Big Ten council of presidents and chancellors, told reporters in Chicago on Sunday after the conclusion of those league meetings.

The clear expansion connection stretched 2,100 miles from San Francisco to Chicago, as the rival conferences contemplate expanding to 16 teams each, destroying the Big 12 in the process and causing tremors that would be felt in the SEC, ACC and Big East as well.

There's a connection, and a circle. Consider:

• Nebraska and Missouri, logical Big Ten targets, have been given a deadline to commit to the Big 12 by the end of the week, according to multiple reports out of Texas.

• Texas would prefer to remain in the Big 12, but if those two schools bolt for the Big Ten, threatening the existence of the Big 12, it might encourage Texas and the other schools to accept a Pac-10 offer.

• Texas, one of two "home run" options for the Big Ten, would be off the table, leaving Notre Dame as the only earth-shattering addition left to be made. Some reports have the Big Ten willing to expand by just one team if that team is Notre Dame.

• However, my belief is that Notre Dame is more likely to consider joining the Big Ten if the league is doing more than just going to 12, and if the Big Ten isn't the only league expanding. Notre Dame may need seismic change in the college landscape to give up its independence, and that would mean the Big Ten adding multiple teams to reach 14 or 16.

• That would mean the Big Ten adding schools like Nebraska and Missouri. The key is that Nebraska and Missouri need some sign from the Big Ten if the deadline from the Big 12 is looming. Those schools can't be left without a conference.

Though Delany told reporters he was unaware of a deadline, that would be part of what is accelerating any Big Ten action.

While Texas remains an attractive option for the Big 10, the possibility of Texas Tech, Texas A&M and maybe Baylor having to be a part of any Texas move probably would rule out the Longhorns to the Big 10. The Pac-10 appears more willing to accept that.

According to ESPN.com, two other key points made in Chicago on Sunday were that league presidents don't have to meet in person to vote on expansion, so something could easily happen before the next scheduled league meetings in December. Expansion could come in phases, not just in one three-team or five-team chunk.

So the targets of Big Ten expansion -- Notre Dame, Nebraska, Missouri, a couple schools from the East -- don't seem to have changed from the initial speculation of six months ago. Once again, Simon emphasized the academic component of expansion, which conference leaders have done in the past.

But in many ways, for any conference, these moves are about money and television markets. That hasn't changed. It all just may happen sooner than some people expected, maybe in weeks, not months or years.

[KChiefs1]

http://www.idahostatesman.com/2010/0...#storylink=twt

JACKSON, Wyo.
It could be a long, dizzying month for Boise State fans, administrators and coaches awaiting an invitation to the Mountain West Conference.

The invitation that was expected Monday from the Mountain West presidents meeting in this scenic resort town sounds like it's very much on hold.

Perhaps until the end of June.

Perhaps indefinitely.

"We don't have to make a decision Monday," Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson told the Idaho Statesman on Sunday night. "I don't think we're going to work under a timeline or any artificial deadline."

An up-or-down vote on the Broncos might have to wait until the college landscape stops shaking and the league knows exactly who is available.

The list of big-name teams left league-less by ExpansionPalooza 2010 could be impressive.

Colorado, which sits in the heart of Mountain West country, "kind of makes sense," Thompson said.

"Wait a minute," Thompson asked rhetorically during his interview with the Statesman. "Kansas State and Iowa State and Baylor and Kansas and people are looking for homes.

How does that affect our thinking?"

Answer: A lot.

If an athletic director makes a stand in Lincoln, Neb., and powerful lawmakers call in favors in Waco, Texas, and school officials fight for tradition in South Bend, Ind., does it cause a ripple in Boise?

It does during the Summer of Expansion.

See if you can follow: The Pac-10 is waiting on word from the Big 12 South schools, which are waiting for Nebraska and Missouri, who are waiting for the Big Ten, which is waiting on Notre Dame, which is hoping to keep its independent status and avoid seismic changes in the college athletic landscape.

The Mountain West might end up waiting on all of them.

And then there's the politics: Texas lawmakers are pushing for Baylor, a private school, to head to the Pac-16 rather than Colorado. Iowa State supporters want rival Iowa of the Big Ten to vote no on conference expansion to keep the Big 12 intact and stop expansion-geddon.

Conference expansion does indeed make strange bedfellows.

All that's at stake are billions of dollars, hundreds of years of rivalries and tradition and the fortunes of dozens of intercollegiate athletic departments.

By the end of the month, conferences could be radically altered - some enlarged, others decimated. Or very little could happen.

Now it's the nine Mountain West presidents' turn to navigate their way through the ever-shifting landscape - and find a way forward for their still relatively young league.

They have just as many questions as you do. Perhaps more. They are considering everything from whether the nine schools in the league still will be there next year to what happens if college football's biggest boys create four 16-team mega-conferences.

Before the presidents can begin debating the merits of adding the Broncos, they must figure out the head-scratching big stuff.

"I don't think we're quite finished with that," Thompson said.

They are working through everything.

Consider that conference members who famously broke away from the old 16-team WAC due to its geographic mass and scheduling nightmares discussed the possibility of expanding to, gasp, 16 on Sunday.

These are big, important decisions with long-term ramifications. Answers will not come quickly. Nor should they.

Boise State must notify the WAC of its intention to leave before July 1.

"Certainly somewhere between June 30 and Sept. 1, every FBS conference in America has a window that you have to announce your intention if you are leaving," Thompson said. "Those are really the only deadlines we have to work with."

No rush, right?

Having waited more than six years for an invitation, what's another few weeks?