Mahomes vs. Brady: If Chiefs win Super Bowl, there will be a new playoff GOAT

[Hammock Parties]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/611...&userId=729655

If Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl this Sunday in New Orleans, the debate is over. Mahomes would become the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. Tom Brady fans might not want to admit it, but they wouldn’t have to. A mountain of evidence points to Mahomes taking the mantle from him.

Before diving into the debate, let’s clear one thing up: With all due respect to the other quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings (Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw), this is a two-horse race. Mahomes has already won more playoff games than Montana (17-16), and Bradshaw’s statistical profile pales in comparison with Brady’s and Mahomes’.

So it’s really down to two. And as you’re about to see, it’s actually down to one. Mahomes is in position to become the clear playoff GOAT.

Admittedly, it’s shocking how little time it will have taken for the torch to be passed. Just two years after Brady announced his retirement, Mahomes is poised to do something Brady — or any other QB — never did: win a third consecutive Super Bowl. Just by getting to this stage, he’s already accomplished something Brady never did. No quarterback who had won back-to-back titles had ever even returned to the Super Bowl in their quest for a three-peat. Until Mahomes. If he wins Sunday, he’ll be a four-time champion before he turns 30 — once again, something no other quarterback has ever done.

As you’ll see, the only argument in favor of Brady being the better all-time playoff QB than Mahomes is longevity. If you argue Brady is still the playoff GOAT because he won more rings (7-4 if Mahomes wins Sunday) in his 21 seasons as a healthy starter, that’s your prerogative. But just remember, Brady won 33 percent of the Super Bowls he was eligible to win; if Mahomes wins Sunday, he’ll be at 57 percent (4-of-7 as a starter). By the time Brady won his fourth title (at age 37), he was at 30 percent.

By the time you’re finished reading this story, you will understand that a four-time Super Bowl champion Mahomes wins the argument in three of the primary categories you would use to settle this debate. Mahomes will have the higher peak (three-peat); his performance in the clutch far supersedes Brady’s; and he has easily been the superior statistical performer.

Let’s start with that last point. If you just want to use stats to analyze Brady vs. Mahomes in the playoffs, this debate won’t last long. It’s Mahomes by a mile.

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 1



As you can see, Mahomes has the advantage in just about every stat that’s indicative of quarterback success or is typically used in determining superiority. Brady’s only advantage comes in sack percentage and in the places where longevity matters (total wins, fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives). But Mahomes is already closing in on Brady’s game-winning drives total, despite playing in 28 fewer games.

From an advanced metric standpoint, Mahomes’ 0.23 EPA is roughly equivalent to what Buffalo Bills superstar Josh Allen (0.24) posted during the regular season. That is to say, Mahomes plays at an MVP level in the playoffs. Brady’s mark of 0.14 nearly mirrors what Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (0.13) posted this season.

It’s also worth pointing out what an asset Mahomes has been as a runner in the playoffs. Despite playing in 28 fewer games, he’s already tallied more rushing touchdowns and first downs than Brady — the original king of the QB sneak — ever did. And that’s with virtually no difference in passing volume. Mahomes averages 277.8 passing yards per game in the postseason, and Brady averaged 279.2.

Taken on the whole, there’s pretty much no statistical argument for Brady.

But Mahomes’ superiority goes beyond total stats. We all know Brady’s reputation in the playoffs was that if you gave him the ball in a had-to-have-it situation, he was going to make you pay. It was inevitable. Put another way: Before Mahomes, you could have won any GOAT QB argument in favor of Brady by simply asking: If you could pick any quarterback to win one playoff game, who would it be?

The answer was Brady. It had to be. But not anymore. If you could pick any QB to win one big game, to lead your team down the field in a have-to-have-it situation, you pick Mahomes. He’s the new clutch king.

The data speaks for itself. These are their playoff numbers in one-score games in the last five minutes and overtime:

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 2



The gap between Mahomes and Brady is even wider here. Look at the EPA. Brady raised his play to MVP level in these scenarios, but Mahomes goes to another planet. The greatest EPA regular season ever recorded (dating to 2000) was posted by Peyton Manning in 2004. He delivered 0.45 EPA, according to TruMedia. Brady’s historic 2007 season EPA was 0.41. Somehow, when it matters most, Mahomes is better than the best ever.

Brady and the New England Patriots used to feel inevitable, but they don’t hold a candle to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Now, to get ahead of (at least) one argument Brady’s defenders will try to use, we’ve analyzed another set of data to prove the point. Eras.

Some will say the early part of Brady’s career occurred before the league became so pass heavy. That’s somewhat fair. Though it’s impossible to assess what kind of numbers Brady might have posted if he had played in a more pass-happy league in the early part of his career, it’s at least worth mentioning the difference in eras isn’t quite as severe as you’d think.

NFL teams in 2024 averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns and 217.6 yards per game. In 2000, Brady’s first year as a starter, teams averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns and 206.9 yards per game. QBs today complete a greater percentage of passes and throw fewer interceptions, but again, the numbers aren’t drastic.

Still, let’s try to even things out a little. Let’s drop early-career Brady and his first three Super Bowls and use only his numbers from 2014 until his retirement, a span in which he won four Super Bowls.

That’s an eight-year sample, similar to the seven years Mahomes has been the starter in Kansas City, with their time overlapping for five seasons (2018-22). So, let’s take a look at how the data stacks up now. Again, we’re looking at one-score playoff games in the last five minutes and overtime:



Brady saw an increase in his performance when dropping his 2001-13 data, but it’s clear his numbers still don’t stack up against Mahomes’. It’s a similar story if you move away from clutch situations and look at their playoff numbers as a whole. Mahomes wins in almost every significant category.

Sure, it’s fair to suggest Mahomes’ metrics could fade as he ages. After all, few have ever held off time and aged as gracefully as Brady. Then again, haven’t we all learned by now that betting against Mahomes is a bad idea?

OK, so when we said there was only one argument (longevity) in favor of Brady, that might have been a touch unfair. It should at least be mentioned that Brady is 2-0 against Mahomes in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl victory.

However, for those keen to use that argument for Brady, let’s remember Eli Manning is 2-0 against Brady in the playoffs, including two Super Bowls, and no one would dare suggest Manning is the superior playoff quarterback. Two games are too small of a sample to determine much, and head-to-head matchups are too circumstantial to use as significant evidence.

The truth is, the further you dive into this debate, the more the evidence stacks up for Mahomes over Brady. Here’s just a small sampling of further research:

• With a win against the Eagles on Sunday, Mahomes will have won 10 straight playoff games, which would tie Brady’s record from 2001 to 2005. The difference, however, is Brady’s Patriots missed the playoffs entirely in 2002, whereas no one has beaten the Chiefs since the 2021 AFC Championship Game.

• Mahomes already has the second-most wins in the playoffs when his team trails by double-digits (five). He’s only one behind Brady, but Mahomes is 5-2 when he has found himself down double digits, and Brady finished 6-8.

• Mahomes’ teams have scored 595 points in his first 20 playoff games (29.7 points per game); Brady’s teams scored 455 (23.9) in his first 20. Want to adjust for era again? Mahomes’ 595 points are more than Brady’s teams scored in his last 20 playoff games, too (568).

• Brady’s defenses only allowed 20.8 points per game in the playoffs, and Mahomes’ defenses have yielded 23.1. Once again, if you adjust for era and only count Brady’s playoff games from 2014 onward, Brady still got more help from his defenses. They allowed just 21.8 points per game.

I understand those who want to stand by Brady and his seven championships. But if you had to pick one QB to win a Super Bowl, could you really pick against Mahomes? I couldn’t.

If his Chiefs win Sunday, the debate will be over. Mahomes will be the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. And part of me wonders: Isn’t that just really saying he’s the greatest quarterback of all time?

That’s an argument for another day.

[crispystl]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Beyond just the raw numbers, the eye test just tells us

This. Anyone that watches a lot of football should be able to SEE the talent difference. If they can't then the two of us are simply watching different games.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by Donger

What other teams have been in the position to go for a SB three-peat?

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Garcia Bronco

Peyton Manning also won super bowls with multiple teams. If Patrick wants to be that kind of greatest of all time and he's going to have to win one with another team.

Nah just without Andy Reid or Travis Kelce.

He will have that opportunity.

It will come down to the wire. I doubt Patrick will play as late into life as Brady but he doesn't have to. He has a faster pace. Patrick really needs to be cognizant of his body and taking care of himself as he ages. If he can be the my body is a temple guy like guys like LeBron and Brady did who knows. Notice how they have aged. No more slamming beers in the offseason and inhaling Whattaburger. No more hating cardio. You can do that at 28 or 29. You can't do that if you wanna play until Brady did.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by Omaha

As Chieftain already said, the greatest of all time should probably be the best QB in his era.

A QB's talent and competency are certainly more important to the discussion than team accomplishments.

That's very subjective though, and it's usually focused almost solely on the player's physical traits.

That's how you get Bills fans spewing the "Allen is clearly the best QB in the world" nonsense.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It’s so annoying that this is only even a debate because of Dee Ford. Mahomes vastly outplayed Brady in that game but Brady gets the “2-0 vs Mahomes in the playoffs.”

Was just thinking the same thing.

Flip a single damn outcome and this thing is over already. Dee Ford lines up onside and Brady drops to 6 SBs with PM chasing his 5th this season.

The ONLY counterpoint would be, IMO, that we might've kept Sutton and lost out on Spags. But I've just never bought that one. We were clearly transitioning away from a 3-4 in Sutton's last season here. I think that even had we won a SB, Sutton would've been forced out. The dice had already been cast there.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

That's very subjective though, and it's usually focused almost solely on the player's physical traits.

That's how you get Bills fans spewing the "Allen is clearly the best QB in the world" nonsense.

I can't really dispute that Josh Allen is more talented than Patrick Mahomes. And he is the only one in the league. But talent isn't always greatness. Allen doesn't have Mahomes' it factor.

Allen throws harder or just as hard.
Allen is bigger.
Allen is faster.
Allen is taller.
Allen throws a BETTER deep ball.

And ya know what? Ain't nobody I'd rather have on 3rd and 8 with the game on the line.

That is because being a great QB is 90% decision making and leadership.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

No he doesn't. Again, some of you are just making the rules up as you go along.

In no other team sport is a player with the most titles consider the GOAT of that sport.

It's strange that even in the NBA, the sport where rings really do seem to carry the most weight, nobody considers Bill Russell the GOAT.

And it doesn't really work within the position. Charles Haley has 5 rings, Reggie doesn't -- nobody considers Haley the best DE of all time. Few would call Russell the best C of all time.

The closest analogue you might find is NHL goalies -- the one position in sports that I think can control a post-season the way an NFL QB can. And there are some who would consider Jacques Plante the best goalie of all time. And I think the'd have a pretty damn good case. Still others might argue Dryden who also had 6 championships (tied with Plante).

It's a tenuous argument.

But lets not also pretend it's the only one people make. I mean let's be fair to Brady -- he owns EVERY record.

Completions, yards, TDs -- all the playoff records as well. He absolutely owns the NFL record books.

Right now he absolutely deserves that crown. He simply re-set the standard for greatness at the position.

But I'm not gonna act like PM can't catch him. He absolutely can. There's just a fair bit of work to do yet (even if he wins on Sunday, IMO). The whole body of work from Brady is just staggering.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by BWillie

I can't really dispute that Josh Allen is more talented than Patrick Mahomes. And he is the only one in the league. But talent isn't always greatness. Allen doesn't have Mahomes' it factor.

Allen throws harder or just as hard.
Allen is bigger.
Allen is faster.
Allen is taller.
Allen throws a BETTER deep ball.

And ya know what? Ain't nobody I'd rather have on 3rd and 8 with the game on the line.

That is because being a great QB is 90% decision making and leadership.

If he's only superior in physical areas, and QB greatness is 90% mental, he's not the more talented QB.

Allen's just bigger. So was Jamarcus Russell.

[DRM08]

Here's a crazy thing I just found. Joe Montana "only" won 7 Playoff games before the age of 30. Montana won 9 Playoff games after the age of 30. Mahomes has already won 17 Playoff games before age 30. Kind of mindblowing.

[Omaha]

Originally Posted by BWillie

He is on pace to be the best ever.

He can't even be the best ever because he's only been starting for 6 years so he can't even get 7 yet.

I am not a knee jerk reactionary fellow.

He could definitely get there. I just don’t understand why we can't see our own bias where we refuse to consider the fact that he is 0-2 vs an old man Brady. It ain't nothin.

Why can't you understand that SB wins are a team accomplishment? Put Mahomes or Manning or Drew Brees on those Patriots teams and you'd have undefeated seasons year after year.

[Omaha]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

That's very subjective though, and it's usually focused almost solely on the player's physical traits.

Focusing on the player is a much better test than focusing on team accomplishments like SB wins. It's a team sport. See Brad Johnson & Trent Dilfer.

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

He also outplayed him in LV, although the stats don't show it.

Brady game managed to a win that day. The Chiefs OL did all the heavy lifting.

Also I remember after that game, Patrick was congratulating all the Bucs players. He’s a class act (until Crosby pisses him off). Brady wouldn’t shake big dick Nicks hand after Philly beat him, and that wasn’t a complete ass kicking like LV was.

[ForeverIowan]

Brady was a starting QB for 22 years and played in 14 conference championship games, is that correct? That means he had 8 years where he fell short of the conference championship game.

The fact Mahomes has played for 7 years and his worst end result ever is an overtime loss in the conference championship game is utterly ridiculous!

The fact this discussion is taking place and Mahomes has only played for a THIRD of the amount of time as Brady tells you all you need to know. Mahomes will likely be tasked with matching Brady's accomplishments in 15 years as a starter as compared to 22 years for Brady.

To me Mahomes is the the greatest player I have ever seen. As it currently stands, Brady is the most accomplished. Part of the mystique of Brady to me is he was able to play at an extremely high level in his mid 40s. Im not so sure that will ever be done again.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Omaha

Why can't you understand that SB wins are a team accomplishment? Put Mahomes or Manning or Drew Brees on those Patriots teams and you'd have undefeated seasons year after year.

Go beat off to Dan Marino then. I don't really give a shit.

[Gary Cooper]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Here's a crazy thing I just found. Joe Montana "only" won 7 Playoff games before the age of 30. Montana won 9 Playoff games after the age of 30. Mahomes has already won 17 Playoff games before age 30. Kind of mindblowing.

Unfortunately, Montana was always hurt in his 30s.