Seth Keysor sees what we see...

[DJ's left nut]

https://open.substack.com/pub/mnchie...utm_medium=web

I don't typically re-post his stuff because I think you want to support guys trying to freelance like he does. But I think this contributes to conversation enough to be worthwhile.

Spoiler!

Following the Chiefs losing their first game of the season to Josh Allen and the Bills, a great deal of the discourse regarding the game centered around protection. Or lack thereof.

The problem, the narrative went, was that Buffalo was able to get such consistent pressure on Patrick Mahomes that the offense wasn’t able to function. When I say “narrative” it generally has a negative connotation here, so I’d like to note that this was my opinion watching the game live as well. It certainly appeared that Mahomes spent much of the day under duress with crushed pockets and/or pressure that forced him to bail and scramble (often into the area of a spy).

However, after re-watching the game I started to have my doubts. Out of curiosity, I asked Chiefs fans on Twitter/X what they thought the primary issue was against the Bills. The results were about what I expected based on the general conversation surrounding the game.

It’s worth noting many replied saying it was a combination of factors, but the largest share of the “primary” blame fell on tackles Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor. Following that was Mahomes, then the receivers, then last the interior OL. There were also plenty of “write-ins” for Matt Nagy and Andy Reid, essentially blaming the play calling. I’d thought that the issues were more the OL in general, then receivers, then Mahomes (in that order) upon my first viewing of the game.

But upon re-watching, something nagged at me watching a few snaps, especially early, and I started to doubt my initial impression of the game (I cannot state strongly enough how different games often look upon review when compared to watching it live, with emotion and a condensed view affecting things). Snaps like this made me wonder if the entire narrative surrounding the game was mistaken.



We’ll come back to this individual snap in a moment, but the short story is that I started to seriously doubt as to whether the narrative about the amount of pressure the Bills were able to generate was accurate. And so (you guessed it) to the film I went to try and find answers.

What made the most sense was to re-watch every dropback on all-22, charting plays in which there was pressure on Mahomes (for any reason) and then looking at the situation and why that pressure occurred. I was most interested in things prior to the final drive of the game because those types of desperation drives (down 2 scores with 2 minutes to go) are prone to pressure every single snap given the defense has no fear of the run game whatsoever and the offense is limited in its available play calls. The biggest question I wanted to answer the question of “what’s the problem” in as accurate a way as possible when it came to the offense facing pressure vs the Bills.

I’ve now done that, and I won’t keep you in suspense. The most consistent problem wasn’t the tackles (though they of course had a few bad snaps). It wasn’t the receivers (though they, too, had a few bad snaps for sure). And it wasn’t the play designs. The biggest two problems on plays the Chiefs faced pressure? Patrick Mahomes and Trey Smith.

That’s a tough pill to swallow regarding two great players, but it is what it is. Let’s talk about it.

It’s worth noting that prior to the final drive of the game (again, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to look at that drive as something indicative of the offense as a whole given the situation), the Chiefs had 11 plays where pressure appeared to affect how things ended up. That’s obviously too many plays for the offense to function well, and again, And I understand the instinct to blame the tackles or receivers given they’ve been talked about a great deal this season as problematic (for good reason).

But the biggest issue early in the game wasn’t the receivers or tackles. It was Mahomes itself. This was glaringly true the first two drives, before he tightened things up. I’ll talk about an individual snap as an example, then talk about the numbers.

Let’s go back to the play above, Mahomes’ pick to start the game. At the time, the throw itself frustrated me, but I understand how many times he’s been able to make that exact type of play and why he’d try it. The problem is it didn’t NEED to come to that. Re-watch the play and pay attention to the pocket Mahomes has, then look at what happens with the coverage right after his quick pump fake to Travis Kelce.

Here’s what the field looks like at that point. Remember, you always want to account for how guys are moving in a screen shot because of how fast defenders recover. But the thing is, Mahomes has some terrific options here.


The short story is that the Bengals appear to be playing some variant of cover 3, and multiple defenders jump routes they shouldn’t. Three different zone defenders converge on Kelce with the pump fake, leaving Gray coming wide open over the middle of the field (where he correctly sits down). Further, the CB covering where Hopkins’ route is taking him (bottom of the screen), for some reason, tries to jump a shallow route and gets taken totally out of position so that a throw over the top is easy money. The deep safety in centerfield is WAY back and too far up to affect either potential throwing lane.

And the pocket? The pocket is fine. Morris has directed his rusher around him, and none of the interior blockers are losing. But rather than keeping his eyes down the field, Mahomes drops them to the rush and starts to run forward right into pressure. This is clearly what the Bills were hoping he’d do, and a defender is able to hit him as he starts to throw (late) to Gray.

If Mahomes just stayed in the pocket and went through his reads on-time, he’d have a chunk gain to Gray that has huge YAC potential given how far back the safety is. Or he’d have the option to go over the top to Hopkins for a chunk gain. Instead, he gets happy feet and the end result is a throw under duress that he created. Mahomes is literally the best quarterback I’ve ever seen play the game, but this was a horrendous snap for him, and demonstrative of him playing “sped up” when he doesn’t need to.

All right, let’s talk numbers. In 11 pass plays (again, prior to the final drive) where the Chiefs faced pressure, here’s how I divvied up “blame.”

Mahomes - 3 plays

Trey Smith - 2 plays

Trey and Creed Humphrey - 1 play

Trey and Jawaan Taylor - 1 play

Receivers covered - 2

Wanya Morris and WR’s - 1

Unknown - 1 (This was a play where the world, including me, blamed Carson Steele for INSTANT pressure, but former Chiefs’ All-Pro RT Mitch Schwartz has stated that’s not accurate and that no one was really “wrong” on the play. I don’t know what went wrong on this play if it’s not a protection failure by Steele, but I obviously believe Mitch)

Notice a pattern to these plays? Two names crop up the most, and those are names we’re not used to blaming for problems with protection. If I were to pic one individual to take the most blame, it’d be Smith given his involvement in four of the plays. But between Smith and Mahomes, they ended up mostly or all-the-way accountable for 7 of 11 pressure plays.

Let’s talk about Mahomes a little more, because it’s such a rare occurrence that he’d be part of the issue. The way in which it’s happening is that he’s simultaneously playing too sped up AND hesitant. What do I mean by that? I mean that his pocket presence is too sped up in terms of his willingness to bail (even when, as the numbers I laid out above show, he’s not being constantly harassed the way the narrative goes). The above play is an example of that. The other issue has been a relative lack of aggression even on throws where he’s got a window.

The second dropback of the game (remember, Mahomes’ issues were mostly early, then he cleaned it up considerably) shows a good example of this. It’s not necessarily a BAD snap, and it could’ve resulted in some yardage, but it’s demonstrative of Mahomes being a bit gunshy.

People in real time blamed Taylor for Mahomes taking a hit here, but watch how the play unfolds paying attention to Xavier Worthy and the surrounding coverage.



This is a designed shot play to Worthy with a checkdown built in place to Hardman (who follows Worthy’s motion in a pretty cool look) should the boundary CB follow Worthy deep (a good design to take advantage of the zone the Bills play here). In the meantime, the interior zone defender is tracking Kelce’s movement, as the Bills clearly were intent on Kelce not once again wrecking their day.

The underneath CB does start to follow Worthy, but not quickly, and with the deep safety being where he is there’s a “hole shot” for Mahomes to take here. If the ball comes out on time on a rope, the underneath CB and the safety hanging over the top have no shot at it and the linebacker isn’t even looking. This is a first down with potential for a lot more if Worthy is able to make the safety miss. For those who want to blame offensive design, it takes advantage of this EXACT coverage look.

But Mahomes doesn’t pull the trigger. Instead, he waits an extra beat and takes the “safe” throw to Hardman. A defensive lineman is able to knock it down unfortunately, but even if it had been complete it would’ve been something like a 5-10 yard gain. And because he has to hold the ball longer, Taylor’s defender breaks free (it’s over a full 3 seconds into the snap) and lays a hit on Mahomes. In other words, holding the ball longer to take a checkdown rather than the shot resulted in pressure, not the aggressive intermediate shot play.

(NOTE/EDIT- As I’ve looked at this play, there’s a possibility that Worthy wasn’t one of the primary reads and is more utilized as a field stretcher to try and create space for Kelce underneath. That would of course change the analysis. Possibilities like that should always be considered when making determinations as to who should’ve done what and when)

And that’s the way it works sometimes with pressure. People often say that Mahomes doesn’t have time to throw the ball deep, but the reality is that with designed shot plays throwing the checkdown gives the defense MORE time to come after you, not less. Taylor isn’t to blame for the hit here. Mahomes’ lack of aggression is.

Of course, as I said earlier, Mahomes tightened things up CONSIDERABLY after a rough start (2 of the 3 plays he got sole blame came on his first 2 dropbacks). So what happened after that? Well, Trey Smith had a really, really rough day in pass protection, losing 1x1 several different times in a way that blew up a play.



Here, the play is basically ended before it can really start. Trey takes an aggressive set and ends up getting his hands swatted and his momentum taken advantage of. That leads to the interior pass rusher getting penetration before Creed can come help, and fat enough that Hunt isn’t able to take a good position to slow it down. Mahomes has no choice but to bail out here. He ended up making an UNBELIEVABLE throw for a nice gain, but that’s not really the point in terms of figuring out where pressure was coming from.

Smith had a few different missed stunts in the game (one of which, on the final drive, I’m not even counting here but ultimately resulted in a hold and a converted scramble keeping hope alive becoming 4th and 13), and just generally did not create a solid pocket with consistency in a way that affected several plays that could have been chunk gains. While people were quick to blame the tackles on several plays where pressure got home, a major part of the problem was Trey as well.

The entire OL took a few turns with some struggles (although Trey was the culprit most responsible for direct pressure plays). Taylor overall wasn’t responsible for most of the pressure that came on the day, but was a big part of a systemic failure on a 3rd and 10 design that had a chance for big yards.

The below play Morris took a lot of heat, but he’s not really the issue when you consider depth of pocket and how Taylor and Smith both lose in a way that prevents any stepping up. It’s also not an issue of the scheme or receivers.



First, note that Mahomes dropback takes him 11 yards behind the line of scrimmage. That’s generally deeper than what the Chiefs aim for with their pocket, and it gives the pass rusher an angle to Mahomes (because Morris thinks he’s blocking for depth of 9ish yards instead). So Mahomes didn’t help himself here.

However, he should have been ale to step up away from the rusher and wasn’t. And that’s because both Taylor and Smith get beaten and crush the pocket overall (Taylor has the worse snap of the two here, but the pocket losing integrity is on both of them). What really makes it a bummer is that, once again, the play call correctly anticipates the cover-2 look from the defense and sends Worthy into a shot play “hole” in the defense as Kelce holds other defenders underneath.

If the pocket holds up here, Mahomes has a ton of room to place a throw to Worthy that he can haul in without taking a big shot, OR even have a chance to do some YAC work against the loan deep safety on his side of the field. But instead, because of the pocket integrity, he can’t.

I show this play as demonstrative of a couple of things. First, for all the conversation about Smith and Mahomes, the reality is that other players had their “bad” snaps as well. And when you’ve got a situation where you have multiple people with bad snaps, that spreads across the entire game (especially when you have a limited number of drives, a direct result of the more “ball control” game the Chiefs have been playing this season) and takes away chances to score. It was Mahomes early. It was Trey on multiple snaps. It was Taylor/Morris on a couple. It was even Creed on one. And on a few (but nearly as many as the narrative) the receivers just didn’t separate well against man coverage. You combine ALL those problems and you’ve got nearly a dozen plays killed.

So what does this all tell us? Well, the short answer is that against Buffalo two of the Chiefs’ stars didn’t play like stars on some snaps, and it compounded the problem rather than helping solve it. In fact, it at times CREATED the problem. Mahomes will need to be better against Buffalo next time (I’ll get to his full film review later this week), and so will Trey. Those are foundational guys within the offense. If those two had played better, the domino effect it would’ve had (continuing failed drives) would have likely resulted in a much more successful game.

In other words, some of the narratives about the Buffalo game just aren’t correct. The idea that the offense is broken in terms of route combinations and open receivers doesn’t really hold up under scrutiny. The plays were there to be made throughout the game until the last drive (where, again, things change given the situation of being down 2 scores with that little time left). Worthy is (I hate that I’m beating this drum so often) finding some space down the field in part due to the calls. And while the Taylor and Morris haven’t been perfect, they were doing enough against Buffalo to not be considered the culprits (Taylor played a pretty decent game overall in particular as a pass protector).

In short, the non-stars were doing their part against Buffalo as often as you’d expect. It was a couple of the stars who failed the most. They’ll need to clean that up if they want to beat the best teams in the league. I have no doubt, based on everything we’ve seen over the years, that they will.

It's what many of us have been saying - those folks that are killing the OT play just aren't paying that much attention. Yes, it's been bad at times. No, it's not the primary problem for a great deal many of these games.

On Sunday the issues were overwhelmingly Trey Smith and Patrick Mahomes. The pass protection issues have extended well beyond the OT play. And Patrick Mahomes is the single biggest culprit to the misfiring offense (at least he was in Buffalo and that was just a continuation of what we've seen this season, IMO)

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

He’s playing better than he did last year at the same point in time. He ended up having arguably the best postseason run by a quarterback in NFL history.

Yeah, I’m just fine with “sticking my head in the sand” on this one.

There is no way he's playing better this year. Last year we had the most drops in NFL history since like 2017. They catch those it looks alot different last year during the regular season.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by BWillie

There is no way he's playing better this year. Last year we had the most drops in NFL history since like 2017. They catch those it looks alot different last year during the regular season.

QBR takes the drops into account. He is playing better than last year from an efficiency perspective. The counting numbers just aren’t there because of the low possession-run based offense.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

QBR takes the drops into account. He is playing better than last year from an efficiency perspective. The counting numbers just aren’t there because of the low possession-run based offense.

Please advise exactly how QBR is calculated.

[TheGuardian]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Bud, this is his worst QBR as a starter (not counting 2017) with the exception of the 2021 season. And starting with Succ%, just run straight across those stats; he's either worst of his career, or 2nd to worst in every statistical category.

Succ%-2nd to worst,
Lng (which I could care less)-worst
Y/A-tied worst
AY/A-WORST
Y/C-worst
Y/G-worst
Passer Rate-worst
QBR-2nd worst
NY/A-WORST
ANY/A-worst

And, he's on pace to get sacked more this season than in any other season of his career. Also his %/games with an INT makes him 39th @80%.

His overall play is a problem. And it's not just one thing. He needs to get his shit back together over the next few weeks.

Pats aggressiveness rating, eg throwing into tight coverage, is also worst of his career.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

A significantly better QBR.

It’s better than whining about a QB not throwing for big passing numbers on a low possession running team without any context whatsoever. Because I can’t think of anything I could give a shit about less.

"Context"?

Wtf are you talking about, cuz? I think you need to look up the meaning of that word.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by BWillie

Please advise exactly how QBR is calculated.

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...terback-rating

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

"Context"?

Wtf are you talking about, cuz? I think you need to look up the meaning of that word.

Yes, context.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by TheGuardian

Pats aggressiveness rating, eg throwing into tight coverage, is also worst of his career.

Maybe we should look to trade him for Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. They have the guts we need in the regular season.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...terback-rating

You did not advise.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by BWillie

You did not advise.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...oved-qb-rating

I did. And have done so again.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

To recap, we’ve now gone from calling it ridiculous and a terrible take not based in QBR to “hardly significant”.

Josh Allen has been a better regular season QB than Patrick Mahomes in QBR since the 2020 season. He’s been a significantly better regular season QB than him over the past two seasons in particular. I’ll ask again, does that mean you’re taking him over Mahomes this postseason? And if not, why not?

It’s a terrible take because you give one stat they are essentially equal in, even though Mahomes beats him in said stat 3 of 4 times in full seasons, and basically everything else, whether in a 5 season average or season by season basis, Mahomes is better in. Your question is especially stupid because I’m literally here saying Mahomes is better in the post season AND regular season.

Me: Mahomes is the best QB in the last five years in the regular season, and what makes him so great is he continues that level in the post season better than anyone, while managing the game perfectly.

You: Allen is better in the regular season. BuT I bEt YoU wOuLd tAkE MaHoMeS oVeR AlLeN!

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...terback-rating

Lol, please show the formula for calculating QBR, not some broad definition without specifics. Thanks.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Traitors, losers and cowards.

Says the guy who says Allen is better in the regular season since 2020 despite all the stats and wins (besides rushing yards) being in Mahomes favor. I’m sure you totally would have said this after the 2023 Super Bowl victory.

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

It’s a terrible take because you give one stat they are essentially equal in, even though Mahomes beats him in said stat 3 of 4 times in full seasons, and basically everything else, whether in a 5 season average or season by season basis, Mahomes is better in. Your question is especially stupid because I’m literally here saying Mahomes is better in the post season AND regular season.

Again, it wasn’t a take. Josh Allen has a better QBR than Patrick Mahomes in the regular season since 2020. You can try to spin that as many times and in as many ways as you want but it won’t change that fact.

Me: Mahomes is the best QB in the last five years in the regular season, and what makes him so great is he continues that level in the post season better than anyone, while managing the game perfectly.

He isn’t and it hasn’t even been close the last two seasons. I’ll ask again, though, who are you taking come playoff time between the two despite that? And if it is Mahomes, why?

[KC_Connection]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Says the guy who says Allen is better in the regular season since 2020 despite all the stats and wins (besides rushing yards) being in Mahomes favor.

Josh Allen has been the better regular season QB since 2020, yes. That is heavily weighted by Mahomes’ last two seasons being much worse than Allen’s but it again doesn’t change that fact.

Guess who I’m still taking to manage a playoff game in a few months though?