Conspiracy Theroy: Mahomes is the most bailed out QB

[DenverChief]

Fascinating stats and the real result is

To start, this stat has no denominator. The player we would expect to lead the league in interceptions overturned by penalties since the start of 2018 is the guy who has thrown the most passes of any kind over that timeframe: Patrick Mahomes, with 3,608 pass attempts.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Jared Goff (3,508) is the only QB within 300 attempts. Because he's thrown more than anyone, Mahomes leads since 2018 in lots of things, like passes completed for exactly 13 yards (96) or yards on slants (1,215). So it's no surprise that he leads the league in overturned INTs.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

After that play in the Bengals game, this stat was used to further the idea that Mahomes is being bailed out for bad passes by referees. The problem is that there's a penalty which wipes off a lot of interceptions that has nothing to do with referee judgment calls: Offsides.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Eight of those 17 interceptions were plays where a defender went offsides and Mahomes threw the ball up on a free play. Those obviously aren't bailout calls. (Furthermore, the most famous offsides call last year was on ... then-Chiefs player Kadarius Toney.)

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

One of the 17 didn't actually wipe off an interception - Matt Judon was flagged for unnecessary roughness during a return, and the Ravens still took possession of the football, which leaves 16 picks. (It's possible I'm missing one, but the stat in the tweet isn't sourced at all.)

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

So that leaves eight overturned interceptions we can ascribe to plays that involve referee judgment calls (DPI, roughing the passer, illegal contact, etc). Including the interceptions, that's about one for every 452 passes Mahomes has thrown since 2018.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

It's one of the higher rates I can find, but there's one quarterback who has a higher rate of interceptions overturned by plays that involve a referee's discretion since 2018, and it isn't going to help Bengals fans who are worried about a conspiracy against them.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Joe Burrow has had eight interceptions overturned by penalties since joining the league (two offsides, four DPI, an illegal use of hands, and a defensive holding.) That's six judgment calls across 1,966 pass attempts, or one every 327.7 attempts.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

In other words, Mahomes wasn't even the quarterback who had been bailed out by judgment calls from referees most often in the game he was playing on Sunday, let alone league-wide.

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

[New World Order]

Would Bill be interested in a mod position?

[warpaint*]

Originally Posted by Rainbarrel

People see what they want too, .03% will be changed

There seems to be a concerted effort to tear him & the Chiefs down. It's one thing to root against them, I get that. Everybody gets fatigue with these dynasties, Alabama, NE, NYY, etc.

People are literally lying about the Chiefs though. The PI call from Sunday was indisputable & yet still you have people complaining about it. It's a textbook example of intellectual dishonesty. I assume all of those people claiming they want them to let them play are good with the Saints/Rams no-call in the NFCCG. It was more egregious but it wasn't any more obvious.

[loochy]

Bailed out? Or teams are trying too hard because he's good and they commit more penalties?

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Mahomes is easily the best QB ever at recognizing he has a free play and making use of it/taking more risk. Even better than Rodgers.

Nah, Patrick throws the ball up for grabs as soon as he sees the Defense jump Offsides. He is great at getting them to jump. But he makes some really stupid throws in those situations. Don’t assume the refs will actually penalize the Defense. They sure failed to penalize Cincy for a blatant Offsides the other day on the Kelce 41 yarder that got called back for a penalty on the Chiefs OL.

[Rain Man]

Anybody trying to make any argument that the Chiefs are getting favorable treatment doesn't watch the games and also doesn't know anything about football. If you watch the games and understand football, you'll clearly see that they're a great, well-coached, smart team with the greatest quarterback in NFL history.

And while I'm here, we want our Super Bowl 53 and 55 trophies that were denied by completely one-sided penalty calls favoring that cheater brady.

[DJJasonp]

stupid. Mahomes is smart. he takes chances when he sees a flag thrown downfield.

Pretty simple explanation (other than the envy from all the haters).

[DRM08]

Pretty darn funny that Barnwell discovered Joe Burrow is the guy with the most bailout calls. I would be curious to know how often Chase & Higgins have gotten away with pushing off. Hell, the refs called McDuffie for DPI when Chase dragged him to the ground and Burrow threw an uncatchable ball out of bounds. Lol

[RedinTexas]

There is a lot of dishonesty in the whining about the Chiefs getting favorable treatment though. I still see people bitching about it and they show the defensive holding call near the end of Super Bowl 57 against the Eagles. However, they show the nonsense FOX showed during the game. They don't show the angle that showed very clearly that the defender committed textbook defensive holding.

It's one thing to bitch about the Chiefs getting a favorable call, it's an entirely different thing to claim that an out-of-bounds catch should be allowed, or a textbook DPI should be ignored because it's late in the game.

[Chieftain]

Always liked Barnwell's work. Spitting nothing but facts.

[displacedinMN]

Compared to Brady???

[BlackHelicopters]

I like PMII.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Patriots AFCC
Bucs SB

Yeah there's been a QB that got ALL the calls and it sure wasn't Patrick.