Why don't receivers catch with their hands?

[Holladay]

I see too many dropped passes by trying to catch it in their gut. Are they coached to do it that way.

To use a comparison, in basketball, it is all hands.

I dunno.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Holladay

OK, simple question: hand v chest/stomach?

So not important as an observation?

Seems like a logical question.

By the time they reach the NFL, its just theit natural catching form. It's not a major deal the majority of the time. Even with Hill, he had one bad year of drops but every other year he's fantastic.

[cdcox]

I did a detailed analysis of WR drops today. From year to year, the league-wide drop rate is 6.5%. In a given season, a simple model where every receiver has a 6.5% chance of dropping a given pass, accurately reproduces the league wide drop frequency distribution. The correlation between drop rates in 2022 and 2023 for a given receiver was only 0.2.

Stripping through all the math, no receiver in the NFL has better hands than another. The simplest representation is that all NFL receivers have a 6.5% chance of dropping any given pass.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I did a detailed analysis of WR drops today. From year to year, the league-wide drop rate is 6.5%. In a given season, a simple model where every receiver has a 6.5% chance of dropping a given pass, accurately reproduces the league wide drop frequency distribution. The correlation between drop rates in 2022 and 2023 for a given receiver was only 0.2.

Stripping through all the math, no receiver in the NFL has better hands than another. The simplest representation is that all NFL receivers have a 6.5% chance of dropping any given pass.

Isn't math cool?

[TwistedChief]

Maybe it hurts their hands.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Stripping through all the math, no receiver in the NFL has better hands than another.

Lol, now that's funny.

[TinyEvel]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I did a detailed analysis of WR drops today. From year to year, the league-wide drop rate is 6.5%. In a given season, a simple model where every receiver has a 6.5% chance of dropping a given pass, accurately reproduces the league wide drop frequency distribution. The correlation between drop rates in 2022 and 2023 for a given receiver was only 0.2.

Stripping through all the math, no receiver in the NFL has better hands than another. The simplest representation is that all NFL receivers have a 6.5% chance of dropping any given pass.

WTF? Did ChatGPT write this? How is the even possible.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

No they are taught to attack the point of the ball with their thumbs and pointer fingers making a diamond pattern. I low ball or over the shoulder are the exceptions. Sometimes they are late and don't get their hands in the correct and coached position.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by TinyEvel

WTF? Did ChatGPT write this? How is the even possible.

I calculated the drop rate of every WR by:

Drop rate = drops/(drops+receptions)

The denominator of that represents catchable balls.

I then plotted the drop rate in 2021 vs the drop rate in 2022 of every receiver who caught at least 50 passes in both years. If some players had better hands than others, you'd expect them to have similar drop rates in both years and all the points to be scattered on a 45 degree line. Instead you get a scatter plot with a correlation coefficient of only 0.2. There is another analysis I did, but it is a little more complex.

[Demonpenz]

your mom catches with her mouth

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I calculated the drop rate of every WR by:

Drop rate = drops/(drops+receptions)

The denominator of that represents catchable balls.

I then plotted the drop rate in 2021 vs the drop rate in 2022 of every receiver who caught at least 50 passes in both years. If some players had better hands than others, you'd expect them to have similar drop rates in both years and all the points to be scattered on a 45 degree line. Instead you get a scatter plot with a correlation coefficient of only 0.2. There is another analysis I did, but it is a little more complex.

I hate math - but I love this

[Holladay]

Wow, they got math for everything...

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I calculated the drop rate of every WR by:

Drop rate = drops/(drops+receptions)

The denominator of that represents catchable balls.

I then plotted the drop rate in 2021 vs the drop rate in 2022 of every receiver who caught at least 50 passes in both years. If some players had better hands than others, you'd expect them to have similar drop rates in both years and all the points to be scattered on a 45 degree line. Instead you get a scatter plot with a correlation coefficient of only 0.2. There is another analysis I did, but it is a little more complex.

Wow, who was it that dropped 13.5% of catchable passes in 2021?

[Cosmos]

3 points of contact/control vs 2…just spitballin here..

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Wow, who was it that dropped 13.5% of catchable passes in 2021?

Deebo.

[Megatron96]

Originally Posted by Holladay

Wow, they got math for everything...

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain