Let's talk about the 49ers (Super Bowl Edition)

[TLO]

Well Chiefs vs Packers is what I had hoped for, but that's not happening.

Let's talk about Chiefs vs 49ers here.

[tredadda]

Everyone also thinks that SF is just going to run all over the field against KC. Only thing is that KCs offense is so good that they force teams to change their game plan. The Ravens made uncharacteristic changes early in the year. O’Brien tried a fake punt on his side of the field because he didn’t want us getting the ball. The Titans who made the AFCCG on the legs of Henry abandoned the run in the 2nd half even though the game was still close. Those are just a few examples that quickly come to mind.

This team alters what the other teams do which is why I won’t be shocked if they try and win on the arm of Jimmy G which is a very poor idea.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by tredadda

Everyone also thinks that SF is just going to run all over the field against KC. Only thing is that KCs offense is so good that they force teams to change their game plan. The Ravens made uncharacteristic changes early in the year. O’Brien tried a fake punt on his side of the field because he didn’t want us getting the ball. The Titans who made the AFCCG on the legs of Henry abandoned the run in the 2nd half even though the game was still close. Those are just a few examples that quickly come to mind.

This team alters what the other teams do which is why I won’t be shocked if they try and win on the arm of Jimmy G which is a very poor idea.

they're the ultimate gut-check.

If you waste a couple of possessions, you might be totally screwed.

That's why The Titans abandoned the run; the last two possessions they tried to run Henry were diminishing returns. He looked okay early, then it was small gains and a punt, then it was STONED HIM and a punt. That's two possessions and Mahomes had gotten hot.

[All22]

Originally Posted by 94605Niner

Thanks for posting that podcast
I had know clue we were that bad against the pass in the red zone... Robert saleh is going to have to tighten things up defensively if we expect to Win.

This game is going to be Epic!

Witherspoon gave up 6 red zone TDs in a 3 week period before getting benched. Mosley cleaned that up immediately.

Sharp's 1 hour analysis was amazing but some stats need context.
Like the guy in the podcast mentioned, the problem with stats and analytics in the NFL are the small sample sizes.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by All22

Witherspoon gave up 6 red zone TDs in a 3 week period before getting benched. Mosley cleaned that up immediately.



Sharp's 1 hour analysis was amazing but some stats need context.

Like the guy in the podcast mentioned, the problem with stats and analytics in the NFL are the small sample sizes.

Not dissimilar to the Chiefs run D being drastically different once Mike Pennel was added for Kansas City.

That Chiefs #26 run D is way different with Pennel on the field. Moves from bottom five
to middle of the pack (and better if you include the playoffs, two games against top 10 rushing offenses).

[All22]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I was curious about that motion stat. So many of chiefs stats are skewed badly by our disastrous first half of the season on defense. I wonder how that's looked since we've improved. Bill Barnwell also has a really comprehensive look at the 49ers. He talked about how our DL rotations could be tricky. It was easy to swap Pennel and Chris jones based on which rb was in the game. We can't do that vs the 49ers.

I was also looking at the history of spags vs Kyle Shanahan. It's really bad. But interestingly enough, I don't think he's ever faced Shanahan with good personnel. Shanahan has always faced a spags defense that's been ranked toward the bottom.

Our defense is starting to make me a little nervous. But as Ray Lewis said and I buy this, landlord is a big time x factor. He points out that when garopolo throws he very often goes to the middle of the field. Because it's super safe. That's the type of qb Mathieu can play head games with.

I think our D will have tough sledding. But they'll do just enough to help our offense win.

They throw to the middle of the field so much because that's where the most RAC happens and because our wide zone running game moves defenders laterally.

It's impossible to "crowd the middle of the field" and defend the outside run. Our slowest RB, Tevin Coleman, runs a 4.40 40.

Green Bay sat on every slant, every DIG route, and played a bear front but couldn't stop the outside run because of it. Their corners, safeties, and linebackers were constantly getting pinned inside.

Addendum: In most defenses, especially against condensed sets, the DBs and linebackers have run and pass responsibilities so it's impossible to play both the outside run and the inside pass. That's why RPOs work so well.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

SF's best chance is Mahomes comes out a little too pumped and overthrows some guys, then by the end when he gets in a groove he can't quite dig out of the hole.

Early in big games is the only times I've seen Mahomes not on his game. Dude has the clutch gene more than anyone since Montana.

True although I think he was a lot better this year compared to 2018 on the early game situations. His teammates can easily dig a hole without him. See the two playoff games. Both were a result of WR drops, bad defense, and bad special teams.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by All22

They throw to the middle of the field so much because that's where the most RAC happens and because our wide zone running game moves defenders laterally.

It's impossible to "crowd the middle of the field" and defend the outside run. Our slowest RB, Tevin Coleman, runs a 4.40 40.

Green Bay sat on every slant, every DIG route, and played a bear front but couldn't stop the outside run because of it. They're corners, safeties, and linebackers were constantly getting pinned inside.

Chiefs stopped Derrick Henry from their base 4-3 and nickel packages. They won't run a 'bear front' against SF.

[RunKC]

Some folks around the league get it

[Pepe Silvia]

SF by 28.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by PackerinMo

SF by 28.

You what?


LOL.


yeah, whatever.

I mean, you want to pick against the Chiefs that's fine, but they've never lost by more than one score in two ****ing years and you've got 'em losing by 4 ****ing touchdowns?

get the **** out of here with that shit.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by All22

They throw to the middle of the field so much because that's where the most RAC happens and because our wide zone running game moves defenders laterally.

It's impossible to "crowd the middle of the field" and defend the outside run. Our slowest RB, Tevin Coleman, runs a 4.40 40.

Green Bay sat on every slant, every DIG route, and played a bear front but couldn't stop the outside run because of it. They're corners, safeties, and linebackers were constantly getting pinned inside.

Addendum: In most defenses, especially against condensed sets, the DBs and linebackers have run and pass responsibilities so it's impossible to play both the outside run and the inside pass. That's why RPOs work so well.

The Packers also have a much different and lighter DL. They played the Bear front, squeezing five guys between the tackles, out of necessity. Kansas City is bigger and sturdier up front, both inside and on the edges.

They may play the OLB up when they’re on the field, similar to what New England did to the Rams last year, but I expect the DEs to line up on the outside shoulder of the tackles, with the LB beyond that.

That approach gives them more options for crowding the middle.

And on passing downs, when they happen, there’s obviously less focus on the zone run,
So it becomes easier to squeeze the middle then.

[Pepe Silvia]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

You what?


LOL.


yeah, whatever.

I mean, you want to pick against the Chiefs that's fine, but they've never lost by more than one score in two ****ing years and you've got 'em losing by 4 ****ing touchdowns?

get the **** out of here with that shit.

In a regular season game? Sure, in the Super Bowl? No way.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by PackerinMo

In a regular season game? Sure, in the Super Bowl? No way.

worst take candidate.

There's literally no ****in' way.

[FlaChief58]

Ah yes, the Packers troll finally mustered the courage to crawl out from under his bridge after getting embarrassed by a QB who threw 8 passes.

[FringeNC]

Originally Posted by FlaChief58

Ah yes, the Packers troll finally mustered the courage to crawl out from under his bridge after getting embarrassed by a QB who threw 8 passes.

The Packers D in that game would make Bob Sutton blush.