2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[WhawhaWhat]

Originally Posted by Three7s

Butler can join him.

Since June 1:

Hosmer - .226/.278/.316
Butler - .289/.344/.395
Gordon - .229/.331/.440

[Strongside]

Originally Posted by Three7s

I'm going to assume no one knows because I've yet to see it posted.

Gordon, Perez, and Holland are back to the all-star game. Escobar and Wade Davis were left out.

Perez is actually going to start because of the injury to Wieters. (how the hell did he get voted in? Are MLB fans reeruned? Seriously, he hardly even played.)

Bout time Perez gets some love.

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by Three7s

I'm going to assume no one knows because I've yet to see it posted.

Gordon, Perez, and Holland are back to the all-star game. Escobar and Wade Davis were left out.

Perez is actually going to start because of the injury to Wieters. (how the hell did he get voted in? Are MLB fans reeruned? Seriously, he hardly even played.)

Last page, but it's worth mentioning again for sure. Congrats to the 3 of them. Escobar and Wade were both deserving and its a shame that at least one of them didn't go. Right now, Esky is far, far better than Jeter.

[WhawhaWhat]

Originally Posted by Three7s

I'm going to assume no one knows because I've yet to see it posted.

Gordon, Perez, and Holland are back to the all-star game. Escobar and Wade Davis were left out.

Perez is actually going to start because of the injury to Wieters. (how the hell did he get voted in? Are MLB fans reeruned? Seriously, he hardly even played.)

Cespedes was the third OF instead of Adam Jones until somehow the Orioles fans stuff the ballots over the last 48 hours of voting.

[C3HIEF3S]

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Cespedes was the third OF instead of Adam Jones until somehow the Orioles fans stuff the ballots over the last 48 hours of voting.

The entire fan voting thing is just dumb. How did Perez and Gordon even get in anyway with the voting system? Wasn't Gordon not even in the top 15 in votes for AL outfielders?

[Three7s]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

The entire fan voting thing is just dumb. How did Perez and Gordon even get in anyway with the voting system? Wasn't Gordon not even in the top 15 in votes for AL outfielders?

Player's picks, I believe.

[Strongside]

Sam Mellinger ‏@mellinger 1m
Yadi Molina, age 24: .275/.340/.368, 85 OPS+, 2 yrs from 1st All-Star game. Sal Perez, age 24: .285/.332/.443, 112 OPS+, 2nd All-Star game.

[Canofbier]

Originally Posted by Strongside

Sam Mellinger ‏@mellinger 1m
Yadi Molina, age 24: .275/.340/.368, 85 OPS+, 2 yrs from 1st All-Star game. Sal Perez, age 24: .285/.332/.443, 112 OPS+, 2nd All-Star game.

<3 Salvy. I think I need to buy his jersey.

[duncan_idaho]

Didn't get a chance to respond to this before I left for the weekend at the lake but wanted to finish the discussion since good points were being made.

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Fine, they have Dyson at 2.4. Still much higher than Byrd given how there's another half of baseball to play.

I have no earthly idea why you keep saying that. Because of Jeremy Guthrie? Every serious mathematician focuses on repeatable experiements and datasets that hold trends. What should have happened is far more telling than what actually did. Focusing on outliers is seriously ancient thinking.

It's not about Jeremy Guthrie (though I do have issues with the way they figure their WAR for pitchers, which is incredibly dependent on FIP and strikeouts... Wade Davis was nearly 2 WAR starting pitcher according to Fangraphs, and his WAR stayed flat even after being moved to the bullpen last year). It's about their formula in general. I just tend to find Baseball Reference to be a little more reliable and less likely to make me go "Wait, that makes no sense."

Fangraphs only has Marlon Byrd - who has the 10th-most HR in MLB and is 26th in MLB in slugging - as being 7 runs above average offensively on the season. That's incredibly low for a player with those profiles. His baserunning is not THAT bad.

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

You should apply this logic to Gordon then, since he's hit the shitter offensively. 2-41 slump? As you say, you can stop runs or create them. Hopefully both. Dyson stops them - Byrd creates them. A wash.

There's a difference between a proven everyday day hitter going through a long slump and a part-time guy like Dyson. Dyson has never proven he can hold up a high level of production when given more PT (in fact, he has shown that more PT=lower offensive numbers).

If Dyson could play everyday, with a day off against lefties, and put up .300/.350/.350, I'd take that all day long. That's basically what I was hoping for from Nori Aoki. Just haven't seen him prove he can be that type of guy yet. With a guy that would likely rip off 50 bags in that situation, I can live with a .350 SLG. Because I look at SB as a way to adjust SLG - basically, I add those stolen bases - and subtract caught stealings- to the total bases used to derive the slugging percentage... Don't know if anyone else uses that statistical measure, but I think of it as Total Base Percentage, and I think it's a way to compare the extra offensive value a speed guy offers with his ability to swipe bags. .300 BA with a .350 SLG would normally be looked at as an empty .300, but if you have the speed to turn 30 of the singles you're using to get to that average in 2Bs (or 2Bs into 3Bs, etc), that's just as good for run creation as hitting a 2B in the first place.

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Here's the meat of the argument: creating value by replacing X player. And that X is clearly Fat-Ass at DH. Get rid of Dyson and you gain nothing. Get rid of Fat-Ass, and you probably pick up 2 wins. Is that enough? It might be.

There's really no argument in support of Butler at this time. His juice is gone, his ability to get on base is gone, and he's hurting the team. He's been better offensively than Hosmer, but that's not saying much (and Hosmer at least is a run-preventer at 1B.

[duncan_idaho]

Side note (file this for the "you can't judge a High A prospect just by his stats" case):

Baseball Prospectus released its midseason Top 50 today. I disagree with some of the rankings (for instance, leaving Byron Buxton atop the list despite his lack of PT this year, and despite Kris Bryan'ts unbelievable offensive display at AA and AAA - he's slugging nearly .800 at AAA), but they have both Mondesi and Almonte in their top 30.

Reports on Almonte's progress with his breaking pitch are particularly pleasing. It seems he's progressing towards a plus breaking ball to pair with a plus fastball and plus-plus changeup.

So it's good for prospect hounds like me. It's also good for the Royals trade prospects. If those guys are showing out that well in live looks, their trade value is just as high as it was entering the season.

The Royals have trade chips, should they choose to use them. Not David Price level trade chips (If the Rays won't move him for a package built around Addison Russell, I don't know what they'll move him for... Addison Russell, Jarrod Parker and Dan Straily would have seemed to be pretty good value for him). But more than enough to go get a player that can help them offensively.

[Prison Bitch]

The Rays turned down that deal, but yet Al Bundy falls hook line and sinker for a rumor they'd do it for Joey Votto. Who's:

1). Hitting .255 with 6 homers
2). On the disabled list
3). Owed a whopping $229 million over the next TEN years

[FringeNC]

As bad as Moose has been, he has a virtually identical OPS to Hosmer.

Hosmer: .648
Moose: .644

Going forward, I'm not sure that I have any more hope that Hosmer will develop into an average player than Moose. In fact, Moose plays a tougher position, and is better at it.

Forget about these guys being stars. I don't even think it's likely that they can be MLB-average at their positions.

MLB average for 1b around .850, around .800 for 3b.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by FringeNC

As bad as Moose has been, he has a virtually identical OPS to Hosmer.

Hosmer: .648
Moose: .644

Going forward, I'm not sure that I have any more hope that Hosmer will develop into an average player than Moose. In fact, Moose plays a tougher position, and is better at it.

Forget about these guys being stars. I don't even think it's likely that they can be MLB-average at their positions.

MLB average for 1b around .850, around .800 for 3b.

Moustakas returned from the minors on June 1. Since that time, he is:

.250/.308/.469 (6 HR, 18 RBI). Paired with his defense, that's a very playable major league player, and an above-average guy overall. Dayton Moore said before the season his expectation for Moustakas was for him to hit between .250/.260 with good power and above-average defense. He's succeeding - so far - since his return at meeting those expectations. Project Moustakas out over 550 ABs, and you'd be pretty happy with the results you get - 34 HR and 100 RBI.

Of course, this is Moustakas, so we need to see that sample size grow before we can believe he can sustain it. But he has not been a problem since returning (in fact, he's actually been a plus and would be a very, very effective No. 6 or No. 7 hitter if he can sustain it).

Since June 1, Hosmer is .226/.278/.316. It's just awful, and there's not enough lipstick in Orange County to make it look any different. No power, no OBP. Nothing.

Pair that with Yost and Dayton Moore coddling him more than the worst over-protective mom AND insisting on batting him in the first 3 spots in the lineup, and you've got a production bomb.

[Canofbier]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Moustakas returned from the minors on June 1. Since that time, he is:

.250/.308/.469 (6 HR, 18 RBI). Paired with his defense, that's a very playable major league player, and an above-average guy overall. Dayton Moore said before the season his expectation for Moustakas was for him to hit between .250/.260 with good power and above-average defense. He's succeeding - so far - since his return at meeting those expectations. Project Moustakas out over 550 ABs, and you'd be pretty happy with the results you get - 34 HR and 100 RBI.

Of course, this is Moustakas, so we need to see that sample size grow before we can believe he can sustain it. But he has not been a problem since returning (in fact, he's actually been a plus and would be a very, very effective No. 6 or No. 7 hitter if he can sustain it).

Since June 1, Hosmer is .226/.278/.316. It's just awful, and there's not enough lipstick in Orange County to make it look any different. No power, no OBP. Nothing.

Pair that with Yost and Dayton Moore coddling him more than the worst over-protective mom AND insisting on batting him in the first 3 spots in the lineup, and you've got a production bomb.

I know that I'm hardly alone in thinking this, but I always appreciate your takes on the Royals and baseball in general. I think I've become a much more knowledgeable fan from reading your posts.

[ChiefsCountry]

Hosmer had a good series against the Twins. No power but he was getting on base.