Best Guess at Reality Mock 4/23/25

[kccrow]

This is my best guess at what will go down in the draft. I'm not picking my flavors at every spot, though a couple guys show up from my "What I Want" mock.

1-024 OT Josh Conerly Jr, Oregon (6'5" 311)

Chatter about a move up and substantial interest in all of the top OTs in this draft make me feel like Veach isn't done pouring resources into the OL. Additionally, we all know Veach tends to overcompensate for known voids. Moore was only signed on a 2-year deal and wasn't paid so much for his services that you wouldn't feel comfortable sliding him to LG if your rookie wins the LT job. Conerly has the potential to be the best pass protector at LT in this draft and may be the only one with the athleticism to reach the deep sets required to protect Patrick.

The Vikings turn their late 3rd nearly into a 2nd round pick by moving down in the seven selection "safe zone" with the Chiefs sending 1-31 and 3-66 to them for 1-24 and 3-97. They could parlay that trade into more picks if they move out of round one altogether by sending it to a QB-needy team at the top of the 2nd. The Chiefs, meanwhile, maintain four selections in the top 100.

2-063 DT Joshua Farmer, Florida State (6'3" 305)

The Chiefs have shown substantial interest in the former Seminole, and he fits precisely what they need as an NT in their 1-gap scheme. Farmer can anchor against double-teams and has the athleticism and power to force his way through gaps and make plays in the backfield. It just feels like this pick will be dedicated to the defensive line in some way. If Tuimoloau or Scourton fall near, they could explore DE, but DT is more of a definitive need.

3-095 LB Barrett Carter, Clemson (6'0" 232)

The 3rd round will be interesting with LB, S, DE, and RB all easily in play. The bill is coming due on the 2022 draft class in the 2026 offseason, and there are already depth concerns at linebacker and safety heading into 2025. Veach will put some bodies on the roster here, in my opinion. We know the Chiefs have looked at athletic linebackers, and we only know 13 of 45 Combine visits so my guess is they've looked at a good lot of them. WLB is a definite need with Tranquil slowing down and no real additions in free agency. Both Chenal and Tranquill are free agents next year to boot. Carter stands out above the other WLB prospects to me with his ability to spy the QB and blitz off the edge, something Spags employs with regularity. He's twitchy and explosive, something Veach has valued. I feel like he's the best fit among guys like Bassa, Paul, James, and so on. Also considered Jonas Sanker heavily at S here.

3-097 RB Damien Martinez, Miami (6'0" 217)

I don't think the Chiefs' brass can be honest with themselves if they don't recognize the need to get more explosive at RB and add to the passing game via that mechanism. But damn, have they looked at a bunch of status quo RBs to date like Martinez, Skattebo, and Neal. Even though I wish it weren't the route they'd take here, it sure feels like it will be. Martinez is a nice fit in the grand scheme of the offense as he can shoulder a full load and be the lead back in 2026. I just won't come away feeling like we would be adding the explosive element I really desire and a true passing game threat.

4-133 WR Jaylin Lane, Virginia Tech (5'10' 191)

Lane is a prototypical slot with smaller stature but electrifying speed and solid short-area quickness to go with outstanding hands. We all see the need to have a long-term option at the position, and with Hollywood on the roster, Lane can develop slowly. Lane will make his immediate impact on special teams, where he's an excellent punt returner. His speed and elusiveness should show up as a kick returner as well, given the new NFL rules that will force more returns.

7-226 DE Ahmed Hassanein, Boise State (6'2" 267)

At some point in this draft, I feel like Veach will at least take a stab at the DE position, but that doesn't mean I think it'll be early. While it'd be nice to attack the RDE spot opposite Karlaftis and get a stud there, I just don't see it as realistic unless the Chiefs just ignore the LT spot. Hassanein needs a lot of development, but his get-off, initial pop, non-stop drive, and run anchor both inside and out are worth taking a shot on as he continues to learn the game and better technique. Could be a Mike Danna type.

7-251 SS Donovan McMillan, Pitt (6'1" 203)

As I mentioned at 3-95, safety is a depth concern, especially at SS, and will elevate next year with Cook as a free agent at FS. It seems like it would be prudent to get a guy in here at the position. McMillan is more of a downhill, run-defending safety, but is solid enough in coverage to develop. He needs to learn his run/pass keys a bit better and find appropriate spacing in man. He's going to be an asset on special teams with his size, speed (4.48), strength, and tackling skills.

7-257 OL Aiden Williams, Minnesota-Duluth (6'5" 314)

At this point, it doesn't really matter who the Chiefs select; chances of making the team are near zero, and whoever it is probably spends the year on the practice squad. So with that, why not go a similar route to C.J. Hanson last year and take an athletic guy that can convert to guard with Williams? He'll need to gain more lower-body strength and anchor to become an NFL guard, and definitely needs a bunch of work with his hand placement and timing. That said, he's got the physical aspects you look for in a zone blocker.


53-Man Guesstimate
Offense
QB P. Mahomes, G. Minshew
RB I. Pacheco, K. Hunt, D. Martinez, E. Mitchell
WR R. Rice, X. Worthy, M. Brown, J. Smith-Schuster, J. Lane, N. Remigio
TE T. Kelce, N. Gray, J. Wiley
LT J. Conerly (Moore as backup)
LG J. Moore, K. Suamataia, M. Caliendo
OC C. Humphrey, H. Nourzad
RG T. Smith, C. Hanson
RT J. Taylor, W. Morris

Defense
DE C. Omenihu, F. Anudike-Uzomah
DT C. Jones, J. Tillery
NT J. Farmer, M. Pennel, M. Tuipulotu
DE G. Karlaftis, M. Danna, A. Hassanein
LB N. Bolton, L. Chenal, B. Carter, D. Tranquill, C. Christiansen
CB T. McDuffie, J. Watson, K. Fulton, J. Williams, N. Johnson
SS J. Hicks, D. McMillan
FS B. Cook, C. Conner, M. Edwards

Special Teams
SK H. Butker
SP M. Araiza
LS J. Winchester
RET J. Lane, N. Remigio