Football Let's talk a bit more about scoring and offense in the NFL

Mecca · 09-18-2024, 10:19 AM

I've been looking into this some more and I've heard so many points made on this and honestly I think there's some merit in all of the arguments as to what's happening right now.

Obviously everyone is going to put to the 2 high shell coverage that everyone is employing. Yes that is a pretty large reason but it's more that it is highlighting a bunch of other issues the league has, but it isn't a new phenomenon. In 2018, the highest amount of two-high looks faced by any quarterback in the league was 42%. Eight weeks into the 2021 NFL season, only five teams had faced two-high safeties less than 40%. It’s been happening for quite some time.

Of course someone might say well this is a scheme that was popular a long time ago and the league moved away from it..well yes but the defenders back then were not nearly as athletic as the defenders today. By and large defenses are faster and more athletic than they've ever been before.

Now of course you can come up with the old school approach to beating this and simply say, run them out of that look. Well in 2004 you could do that, the league has changed since then. The vast majority of teams are not setup to just pound the rock. Starting at the fact that OL's are just not as good anymore, pretty much from high school-college-NFL they're all playing in spread offenses where the ball comes out incredibly fast and they are run blocking occasionally. When you are sitting in shotgun 85% of a game you aren't even lined up to run the ball to get someone out of 2 high. On top of that you are spreading the field and your TE is most likely just a big WR who is a marginal blocker. Everything you have built for and drafted for is to throw the ball and every level of development has been built that way since these guys were 14.

Your outside WR is basically being taken away by the scheme, you're ability to just run the ball isn't great because of where the game is today..so what do you do? Well...then it becomes a short passing/YAC game. I think this style of defense is why we've seen a pretty massive comeback of the career of Alvin Kamara, he's the perfect player to destroy the current NFL. It also makes someone like say DeVon Achane super valuable. A RB that has catching skills with the ability to make plays in the open field has massive value right now, Jamaal Charles would look even better if he played today.

Also as has been talked about, offenses just playing boring, taking their 4 -7 yards each play to march down the field to score..well that leads to low scoring games when the vast majority of teams are to sloppy to not commit penalties or turnovers.

Also this style of offense is going to relate back to what I heard Tom Brady say about development. Sure the transfer portal is great for the excitement of college football but it's terrible for development. The NFL has basically had to adjust to essentially using the spread offense because most guys come in with no concept of actually running a pro style offense. How many guys are drafted today that can actually do a 3,5 and 7 step drop and be on time in the offense? How many offensive linemen come into the NFL with experience doing anything other than lining up for shotgun snaps?

Also the "rookie QB window" is ruining development. Expecting a dude who honestly has less development that most QB's had 15 years ago to just come in and be the man right away is kind of insane. Baker Mayfield looks like a good NFL QB, he was thought to be washed at 1 point. But because of contracts etc, no team is going to just say "We'll he needs to sit for a year or 2 and then we'll bring him a long slowly"

Something else I think is affecting scoring that is weird as **** in my view is field position and kicking. The kicking in the NFL is at a stupid high level, higher than ever. In Week 1 this year kickers went 21-23 on kicks over 50 yards a 91.3 rate. 5 years ago If you started at the 20 you needed to get to the opponents 30 for a realistic FG try, 50 yards. Now you start at the 30 and only need to reach the opponents 40 for a realistic FG try. I think this leads to far more conservative play calling.

It's almost like a perfect storm of offensive suppression.

09-18-2024, 10:19 AM	Topic Starter
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $817050	Let's talk a bit more about scoring and offense in the NFL I've been looking into this some more and I've heard so many points made on this and honestly I think there's some merit in all of the arguments as to what's happening right now. Obviously everyone is going to put to the 2 high shell coverage that everyone is employing. Yes that is a pretty large reason but it's more that it is highlighting a bunch of other issues the league has, but it isn't a new phenomenon. In 2018, the highest amount of two-high looks faced by any quarterback in the league was 42%. Eight weeks into the 2021 NFL season, only five teams had faced two-high safeties less than 40%. It’s been happening for quite some time. Of course someone might say well this is a scheme that was popular a long time ago and the league moved away from it..well yes but the defenders back then were not nearly as athletic as the defenders today. By and large defenses are faster and more athletic than they've ever been before. Now of course you can come up with the old school approach to beating this and simply say, run them out of that look. Well in 2004 you could do that, the league has changed since then. The vast majority of teams are not setup to just pound the rock. Starting at the fact that OL's are just not as good anymore, pretty much from high school-college-NFL they're all playing in spread offenses where the ball comes out incredibly fast and they are run blocking occasionally. When you are sitting in shotgun 85% of a game you aren't even lined up to run the ball to get someone out of 2 high. On top of that you are spreading the field and your TE is most likely just a big WR who is a marginal blocker. Everything you have built for and drafted for is to throw the ball and every level of development has been built that way since these guys were 14. Your outside WR is basically being taken away by the scheme, you're ability to just run the ball isn't great because of where the game is today..so what do you do? Well...then it becomes a short passing/YAC game. I think this style of defense is why we've seen a pretty massive comeback of the career of Alvin Kamara, he's the perfect player to destroy the current NFL. It also makes someone like say DeVon Achane super valuable. A RB that has catching skills with the ability to make plays in the open field has massive value right now, Jamaal Charles would look even better if he played today. Also as has been talked about, offenses just playing boring, taking their 4 -7 yards each play to march down the field to score..well that leads to low scoring games when the vast majority of teams are to sloppy to not commit penalties or turnovers. Also this style of offense is going to relate back to what I heard Tom Brady say about development. Sure the transfer portal is great for the excitement of college football but it's terrible for development. The NFL has basically had to adjust to essentially using the spread offense because most guys come in with no concept of actually running a pro style offense. How many guys are drafted today that can actually do a 3,5 and 7 step drop and be on time in the offense? How many offensive linemen come into the NFL with experience doing anything other than lining up for shotgun snaps? Also the "rookie QB window" is ruining development. Expecting a dude who honestly has less development that most QB's had 15 years ago to just come in and be the man right away is kind of insane. Baker Mayfield looks like a good NFL QB, he was thought to be washed at 1 point. But because of contracts etc, no team is going to just say "We'll he needs to sit for a year or 2 and then we'll bring him a long slowly" Something else I think is affecting scoring that is weird as **** in my view is field position and kicking. The kicking in the NFL is at a stupid high level, higher than ever. In Week 1 this year kickers went 21-23 on kicks over 50 yards a 91.3 rate. 5 years ago If you started at the 20 you needed to get to the opponents 30 for a realistic FG try, 50 yards. Now you start at the 30 and only need to reach the opponents 40 for a realistic FG try. I think this leads to far more conservative play calling. It's almost like a perfect storm of offensive suppression.
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