The Athletic Annual NFL Agents Survey - A LOT of opinions and agent takes

[kcgreene]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/562.../?redirected=1

This article is structured in a piss poor method, so I'm going to basically copy and paste it in a manner where it is easier to follow. There are tons of questions I organized out so Everything will be in one big spoiler so this opening post of the thread doesn't take up absurd space. Definitely worth a look though. (Especially when they discuss Veach and how much they believe Mahomes would go for on the open market)

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Article Intro

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NFL agents dish on best (and worst) franchise, Mahomes’ value and Dak’s next deal
Ben Standig
Aug 29, 2024

NFL agents primarily exist in the shadows while supporting their clients. They also have a pulse on the present and future of many league matters.

The Athletic spoke with 31 representatives for our sixth annual NFL agent survey. This diverse group, including returning and fresh participants, guides All-Pro selections, franchise quarterbacks, first-round picks and roster hopefuls through the NFL’s transactional process. Now, they assist our audience with informed views on weighty and headline topics.

The agents were granted anonymity to protect themselves and their clients while providing candid assessments this summer on Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys’ offseason, the soaring wide receiver market and general managers with an eye for talent. They discussed the Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback plan, Patrick Mahomes’ money, unstable organizations and ways to improve the league.

As stories around the NFL developed, participants received follow-up calls or new questions.

What is the best-run franchise

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Votes are as follows: Eagles-5, 49ers-5, Chiefs-4, Packers-3, Vikings-2, Steelers-2, Ravens-2, Dolphins-2, Texans-1, Rams-1, Lions-1, Falcons-1, Colts-1, Bills-1

• “49ers. The way they treat people and don’t skimp on expenses. Highly professional.”

• “49ers. You have to fit within their culture, but they allow players and employees to be themselves, and they win even while getting the staff poached by other teams every year.”

• “Eagles. Every year, free agents want to go there. They reward players, and (GM) Howie (Roseman) nails the draft.”

• “This is easy. Eagles. What an organized group with football and front-office business. Every year, they are on top of their game.”

• “The Chiefs deal with so much, good and bad, and yet keep winning. Hall of Fame coach and GM, QB, tight end and ownership.”

• “Green Bay has an excellent front office, starting with (GM Brian) Gutekunst, and they rebuilt the team on the fly after the Aaron Rodgers trade without mortgaging the future. I’m unsure if their different ownership structure helps, but they have a good plan and staff every year. Players like it there, small market or not.”

• “Miami ranked first in the NFLPA report cards. That says plenty.”

• “This is easy. The Ravens win and have a family-organization approach. They have the best talent evaluators in football, and John Harbaugh is a stud.”

• “Steelers. What a consistent, traditional franchise. There’s no bull crap, and they win relatively consistently.”

• “Vikings. Great facilities. They do all the little things for the players and their families and handle relationships with class.”

Which is the most unstable franchise?

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Votes as follows: Panthers-9, Raiders-7, Jets-3, Jags-3, Cowboys-3, Cardinals-3, Broncos-2, Commanders-1

• “Panthers. Organizational stability comes from the owner, and the front office needs more time than the owner (David Tepper) gives. A strong QB can keep a team viable regardless of the front office, but what’s the plan?”

• “Panthers. I think the headline for this section should be that for the first time in my career, most NFL organizations are relatively competent. I can only think of a few that aren’t run well, starting with Carolina because of Tepper’s involvement. They didn’t get a big haul in the Brian Burns trade, either.”

• “Raiders. The owner (Mark Davis) frequently makes significant changes. He put Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler in charge and fired them after less than two seasons. Now, the Raiders have an inexperienced coach in Antonio Pierce and a retread GM hire in Tom Telesco. Organizations start at the top, and Davis doesn’t provide stability.”

• “Raiders. Traditional choices in this category, like Washington and Arizona, have improved or appear headed in a good direction. Vegas keeps making changes and now finds itself without an apparent quarterback of the future or legitimate starter when it needed one following last season.”

• “Cardinals. The Kyler Murray extension is why they are stuck. Why give Kyler that extension and quickly fire the head coach who wanted him and the GM who drafted him? You can’t fire the QB.”

• “Cowboys. I don’t think they want to win above all. Jerry (Jones) wants to turn profits and make headlines. I think the game has passed him by.”

• “Jets. There is complete disarray over there. Look at how they’ve handled Aaron Rodgers. Has one player had more power than him? He skipped minicamp. They have been unable to convert him into a team player. The vibe inside the building is terrible.”

• “Broncos. There’s dysfunction between the GM and the coach over who is calling the shots. Somehow (Sean) Payton has wrestled control from George Paton.”

Which franchise had the best offseason?

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Votes as follows: Commanders-8, Texans-6, Chargers-5, Bears-5, Eagles-3, Rams-1, Lions-1, Falcons-1

• “Commanders. The front office and coaching needed seismic changes. They were wise in free agency and drafted a quarterback (Jayden Daniels) at two. I do not see immediate success, but adding the required building blocks has begun.”

• “Dan Quinn is the perfect hire as head coach for the needed culture change. I love the pairing with (GM Adam) Peters. They have so much work to do beyond football.”

• “Look what the Texans did in free agency. They kept OC Bobby Slowik. That helps C.J. Stroud, as does signing Joe Mixon and trading for Stefon Diggs. … Nick Caserio might be the best and most underrated GM.”

• “Bears. The momentum started with last year’s trade and extension for Montez Sweat. They made a call on Justin Fields’ future with the organization. Then they drafted Caleb Williams and gave him a receiver with Rome Odunze. The momentum continues.”

• “Chargers. Hiring Jim Harbaugh was the best move made by any team. The new GM, Joe Hortiz, is very good, and they start with Justin Herbert at quarterback.”

• “Eagles. They locked up DeVonta Smith before the receiver market took off. Then, they extended A.J. Brown. Oh, and they signed Saquon Barkley. They helped the defense with coordinator Vic Fangio and used their first two picks on corners to help an older room.”

Will the Cowboys and 2025 free-agent quarterback Dak Prescott agree to a contract extension?

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Votes as follows: Yes-18, No-13

• “No. The Cowboys got themselves into a mess. That’s what happens when the owner gets too involved and becomes friends with the players. I wouldn’t pay Dak $60 million per year, and they can’t make all three guys (Micah Parsons, CeeDee Lamb) the highest paid at their respective positions.” (Lamb recently signed a four-year, $136 million deal that made him the second-highest paid receiver behind Justin Jefferson.)

• “No. The Cowboys want to play it out and are willing to pay the price if wrong.”

• “Yes. I can’t imagine Jerry letting him go.”

• “Hold the line. Once you start paying guys that crazy money, they effectively own part of a team. You can get a $5 million QB and win eight games. Maybe Jerry is getting hip to that reality.”

• “The issue is whether Dak is a top-five QB. He was in the regular season, but is he a difference-maker? I think Dallas is doing right by seeing what he’s worth.”

• “The Cowboys don’t have any hierarchy. Always a day late and a dollar short in free agency. You have to go through 30 layers of bureaucratic process to get anything done — and you know why.”

• “Yes, but I would love to see him hit free agency to see how the leverage plays out for that level of quarterback.”

• “Pay Dak and make him the game’s highest-paid QB — if he helps the Cowboys reach or win a Super Bowl this season.”

What average annual value would three time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes receive if he were a free agent on the open market?

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Votes as follows: Over $100M-6, $75M-5, $70M-13, $60M-6, Under $60M-1

Notes: In 2020, Mahomes signed a 10-year contract that still includes the most significant total value ($450 million) among all players. However, the $45 million annual average value (AAV) is behind Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love’s high of $55 million and tied for 11th among quarterbacks. Mahomes restructured his contract in March to help the Chiefs create salary-cap space.

• “$100 million per year guaranteed over five years. That’s probably low. Mahomes is the ultimate difference-maker. Eighteen teams would pay that now.”

• “Dak has a shot at $60 million, so Mahomes would get at least $70 million AAV. Another 10-year contract with open bidding might get him close to a billion overall. He’d be the NFL’s Shohei Ohtani. One of one.”

• “Five years, $300 million ($60 million AAV) with a $298.5 million guarantee. As great as he is, you can’t decimate your roster because of one guy. Contract terms will always be a function of the salary cap and how your numbers fit within.”

• “Start at $70 million annually and go from there, even if that means part ownership somehow.”

• “I get why Burrow got paid. He’s special. But QBs like Lawrence, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson make more annually than Mahomes. That is ridiculous.”

• “He’s already shown what matters most with his last contract: winning. Mahomes took more years and less money than if he pushed his leverage because I think he likes winning that much and wants cap space to build a winning roster rather than chasing every dollar.”

• “$100 million. To a billionaire, this is peanuts. You can alter contracts later anyway.”

Assess the Falcons’ QB situation after they signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract — $100 million guaranteed — only to draft his future replacement, Michael Penix Jr., with the eighth overall pick.

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• “It’s so weird. I understand (Cousins’ agent, Mike) McCartney’s reaction. You convinced me and my guy that you would build a superstar team. I don’t want to be critical of the Falcons, but the last thing you need is to draft a backup quarterback that might put undue pressure on Kirk.”

• “This is a brutal situation for Penix’s agent. We’re all saying he sits for two years, but who knows if Cousins’ play will warrant a change? However, I believe in what the Packers do with sitting young quarterbacks. Penix will get a chance. For the Cousins side, hands are tied.”

• “I think Penix is a stud, and Kirk is coming off a significant injury and not getting any younger. It makes sense that if Kirk gives Atlanta three good years, jump in with Penix at 27, entering his prime years.”

• “Cousins hasn’t built any win equity with the fan base. That’s very different from the Packers selecting Aaron Rodgers to play behind Brett Favre. A slow start may mean calls for Penix begin.”

• “The Falcons had the chance to take the No. 1 defensive player for a team that needs pass-rush help, but they instead took a guy who they say might not play for two to three years. If you want to target a young quarterback in the third or fourth round, that’s OK.”

• “If you’re going to use the eighth pick on a quarterback who’s going to sit, why not take a flier on Justin Fields?”

• “I wasn’t as upset about the Penix choice as others. Then they land (Matthew) Judon and (Justin) Simmons. The defense needed a pass rusher and better talent. That and likely breakout years for some offensive weapons should have them keep the doubters in check. I like what they did.”

Who is the NFL's best talent evaluator?

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Votes as follows: John Schneider-SEA-4, Brett Veach-KC-4, Brian Gutekunst-GB-3, Adam Peters-WAS-3, Chris Ballard-IND-2, Eric DeCosta-BAL-2, Brad Holmes-DET-2, Nolan Teasley-SEA(Asst GM)-2, Other-9

• “(John) Schneider. He’s a football guy and an outstanding talent evaluator with conviction about how to run a program. Good communicator.”

• “Schneider is the GM, the best talent evaluator and very respected. Look at the front-office staffers hired away from Seattle by other teams — there is more to come. John hasn’t changed since he was a scout and avoids changing his evaluation methods for trendy takes.”

• “Mahomes drives Kansas City’s success, but with input from Andy Reid, (Brett) Veach and the front office find other pieces to keep this train cruising.”

• “Gutekunst sticks to his instincts instead of partaking in groupthink. He will listen to his staff. The Packers have a sound system.”

• “Peters might be a curious choice since he just got a GM job, but look at his time with the 49ers and the start with Washington. They’ve already done an excellent job flipping around the scouting department. Just having a scouting structure is something that Washington hasn’t had for about 20 years. … No GM is the sole evaluator of a team.”

• “(Eric) DeCosta. The Ravens know what they are doing when identifying talent in free agency and the draft. They know what they are looking for.”

• “(Nolan) Teasley sees the board differently than others. He can blend analytics and the tape for a full picture.”

Among GMs and front-office leaders, whom do you trust the most?

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Votes as follows: Eliot Wolf-NE-4, Brett Veach-KC-3, Nick Caserio-HOU-2, Omar Khan-PIT-2, Adam Peters-WAS-2, Other-18

• “Wolf has been my rising GM candidate for years: super professional, great communicator and no sugar coating.”

• “Veach. He’s accurate and honest. His ego is checked at the door. Look at the rings.”

• “The Texans crushed the offseason after reaching the playoffs, and Caserio remains so underrated as a leader and thinker.”

• “Omar Khan and (Steelers assistant GM) Andy Weidl are a deadly combo. They are the best.”

Previous winners: Ballard (2020), Paton (2021) and Brandon Beane (2022) won the first three years, with Beane and Khan sharing the honors in 2023.

Who's the best GM overall?

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Votes as follows: Brett Veach-KC-6, Howie Roseman-PHI-5, Brad Holmes-DET-5, John Schneider-SEA-4.5, Chris Ballard-IND-2.5, John Lynch-SF-2, Eric DeCosta-BAL-2, Brandon Beane-BUF-2, Nick Caserio-HOU-1, Andrew Berry-CLE-1

• “Veach. The Chiefs can lose a star player and then find a replacement in the first 3-4 rounds better than most.”

• “With Veach running the front office, the Chiefs do an amazing job of restacking (the roster) and getting rid of people who might poison the well.”

• “(Brad) Holmes. He and his staff have done a great job of evaluating on every level. Several of his moves were questioned in real time, whether taking on Jared Goff’s contract as part of the Matthew Stafford trade, hiring Dan Campbell as head coach or drafting a running back among the top-12 picks. Whatever the criticism, Holmes stayed the course.”

• “Howie (Roseman) is very competitive and aggressive. He pays players early and manipulates the draft better than anyone.”

• “Schneider is a man of great character. He communicates well, is a heck of an evaluator and is a leader. He tries to work out situations with the player and agent.”

• “Ballard. We’re at 25 years of him telling me months in advance which dudes without draftable grades will get selected by Day 2.”

• “Beane. He’s a strong talent evaluator and an honest person. He’s good to deal with for agents. He’s also forthright with the media and, most importantly, built winners.”

• “DeCosta doesn’t get caught up in needs. Their internal scouting finds help in every round. You can see how the league respects the Ravens’ staff because they hire Baltimore’s staffers away.”

Previous winners: Ballard (2021) and Roseman (2023).

Who is a future GM to watch?

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Votes as follows: Ian Cunningham-CHI-4, Brandon Sosna-WAS-3, Trey Brown-CIN-2, Terrance Gray-BUF-2, Mike Greenberg-TB-2, Chris Shea-KC-2, Other-16 (Notable in other, 1 vote for Tim Terry of KC as well)

“Ian Cunningham is a great talent evaluator. He’s fair with agents, not rigid. He comes off like he’s one of us, not some snob. Has an excellent demeanor for the top job.”

• “Cunningham is so level-headed that he finds young evaluators and thinkers to build up his staff.”

• “I can give several reasons for choosing Brandon Sosna. He is transparent and beyond intelligent. At a very young age, he has been a crucial figure in two organizations at a high level. He’s only 31 now. It’s a coup for Washington.”

• “Trey (Brown) is already receiving GM interviews. His time is coming. I learn something whenever I listen to him discuss the talent evaluation exercise.”

• “Depends on what you’re looking for, but Mike Greenberg is excellent with more of an operational than scouting background. Similar skill to Howie, and gets along with everyone.”

• “The general manager must have a firm grasp of money and talent and know how to deal with media and people. Not everyone can touch all those bases. Chris Shea does.”

Previous winners: Paton (2020), Peters (2021, 2022, 2023), Joe Schoen (2021) and Wolf (2021) are active general managers.

Justin Jefferson’s contract reset the soaring wide receiver market. How do you project future WR spending, considering the NFL Draft is annually flooded with receiving talent?

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• “The wide receiver market has probably hit its peak for now. I’m not paying $35 million annually if I’m a team. I get why the Vikings paid Justin. He’s their best and most popular player. It’s easier to hold this stance if you have Mahomes or Burrow as quarterbacks, but I think there is a better use of allocation to build. These young receivers are coming into the league ready.”

• “We’ve seen the running back bubble burst partly because the game has evolved with the usage and production of wide receivers. The receiver market is tied with the quarterbacks. There is no bubble bursting for either.”

• “Ja’Marr Chase will try resetting the market next year. If I’m running a team, I spend money on the quarterback, offensive line, pass rushers and cornerback. I can get anyone to run routes.”

• “This isn’t like quarterbacks, where the next free agent to sign resets the market. CeeDee Lamb ($34 million APY) and Tyreek Hill signed extensions for at least $30 million this offseason. Great money, but both fell below Jefferson’s extension ($35 million). Jefferson is the best receiver and will remain the highest-paid for a bit. Maybe Chase matches, but I expect a softening overall.”

• “Has to pull back. The best wide receivers touch the ball 100-140 times, but an elite running back touches it 300 times. The Chiefs went light at receiver and won the Super Bowl. Having Travis Kelce and Mahomes helps, but …”

• “The league plays fantasy football now, and those guys appeal to fans. Be smart, but pay them.”

• “Watch Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. this season. Receiver rookies are so mature as players when they come out now because of training and the seven-on-seven game. That will be felt in the market other than maybe 2-4 guys.”

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk took his desire for a new contract extension public this summer. What advice do you give your clients when facing similar matters?

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• “I’m a proponent of keeping negotiations quiet, but that isn’t always easy. I think (public displays) do more harm to a player than good.”

• “He’s handled it horribly, but sometimes you must take your grievances public. Silly, yes, but taking the team name or logo off social media accounts can cause a needed stir.”

• “If you have leverage, do what you want to do. You’re your own person. You can hurt the cause, but I don’t think (Aiyuk) is out of pocket with what he’s done.”

• “Every situation is different. In most cases, handling business behind the scenes with the club gives you a better chance of getting to your desired result. In some cases, though, if you’ve exhausted every other avenue, it can be worth trying to make the situation so uncomfortable for the club that they conclude that giving the player what he wants or moving the player is the best option for them. In this case, Aiyuk is loud and Trent Williams is handling things quietly. Whichever is rewarded by San Francisco is probably the strategy that good agents will employ with them moving forward.”

What were your thoughts on the “Hard Knocks” series about the New York Giants’ offseason?

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• “I loved it. I know how it works, but seeing the business behind the scenes for the ordinary fan is very cool. The Schoen-Saquon talks. Pre-draft interviews with quarterbacks at the board. I was surprised the Giants were that open.”

• “It’s probably a choice the Giants regret. They revealed too much. This portrayal will be something other teams will consider in the future.”

• “I think Schoen is a good GM, but this made him and the organization look bad.”

• “It was difficult to figure out the timing of how the events transpired, but it showed the inexact science that is free agency and talent evaluation. Beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder — and the series did not help the team!”

• “Embarrassing to the organization. It will easily justify mass firings when they go 4-13.”

• “It helps peel back the curtain on all of the dynamics and real human interaction that go into team decision-making during the offseason. It also shows how the pieces can fit together when evaluating the current roster, free agency and the draft.”

Are you in favor of the NFLPA's proposed plan on the volunatry spring practice period? (Proposed plan to effectively eliminate the volunatry spring practice perio for late June/early July sessions leading directy into training camp)

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Votes as follows: No-21, Yes-6, N/A-4

• “No. Players need some structure. Not all guys have the discipline to keep working out on their own. They still need some activity, team-building and training.”

• “This might be the NFLPA’s worst idea. Guys need breaks, especially if the sport increases to 18 regular-season games.”

• “I want players to have access inside the building for the entire offseason. The breaks do not help the developmental process, health or nutrition; many players need the daily structure. This is a big, big miss.”

• “Yes. My players would prefer everything together. It helps with continuity in their individual training and team chemistry. It is also tough with a choppy schedule to justify buying a home in another state if my client must go back and forth to Green Bay or Seattle.”

• “Whatever helps with fewer injuries. Teams also want to protect their assets, but not living in a city where your friends and family are can also be lonely and depressing.”

• “Not suitable for players. Horrible for coaches and staff with their quality of life.”

• “Yes. Rookies have an extended workout period from draft prep through the season. It’s gotten out of hand with how year-round football is.”

• “No. Camaraderie is essential. Think about how office interactions changed after the pandemic, with more people working from home. You want new employees — rookies— to interact with long-serving colleagues or veteran players.”

Are you in favor of the NFL turning to an 18-game schedule

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Votes as follows: No-16, Yes-14

• “No. It is disingenuous for the NFL to pretend they care about these players and their health. Eighteen games, why not 20? More games mean more money and another yacht for the owner. I would benefit financially, but this is a no for me.”

• “Yes, if done correctly. We can’t play two games in five days or play around the globe without enough rest. Those aspects do not signify player safety.”

• “Yes, with an increase in bye weeks and roster sizes. Players already face short careers. This means more compensation for them and the league.”

• “No. It would mean more compensation for players, but (the likely outcome of) eliminating preseason games hurts lower-tier guys. There are already no live reps in training camp.”

• “No. The 17th-game discussion meant players had leverage for guaranteed money, lifetime health care or eliminating the funding rule. The NFLPA blew this. Eighteen games is too much for their bodies. The league needs to eliminate Thursday games in any situation.”

Wish List: If given the power, what's one change in the NFL universe you would make? (Note: Guaranteed salaries and eliminating the franchise tag were not options since agents overwhelmingly covet those scenarios.)

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The draft
• “College players should be allowed to enter the draft as a one-and-done.”

• “Here’s the way to make running backs more money: Eliminate the rule about players staying in college for a certain amount of time. Reduce the wear and tear before turning pro to avoid diluting the product, but also provide players with a shot at entering the league, getting paid and earning credits toward their pension.”

• “Add rounds to the draft.”

• “The undrafted free-agent process is broken. Teams making guys choose their future in minutes is wild. Have a time window for teams to submit offers and players to evaluate with their agents. The NFL can make this the fourth day of the draft. There are always some notable prospects and more content for everyone.”

Dollars and sense

• “Any three-years-or-less contract should be fully guaranteed.”

• “Shrink the length of rookie contracts so players can get to a second contract quicker.”

• “Change the rules regarding restricted free agents. Teams can tender a player without guaranteed money while tying him up in the marketplace and maintaining the right to remove the tender. The fix: guaranteeing some money if tendered.”

• “Place a cap on positional pay. Skyrocketing salaries hurt the rest of the team, and we will soon have a league of haves and have-nots.”

• “Separate salary bucket for quarterbacks. Let them get paid, but the extreme salaries are wrecking the overall cap.”

• “Every agent must charge the same fee. Some agents cannibalize the industry by buying into it with unreasonably low rates.”

• “Better benefits for our veterans and fewer credited years required.”

The game

• “Raise rosters to 60 players on game day. More players specializing in special teams would keep starters and critical reserves fresher.”

• “Only grass fields. The league talks about player safety, so start here.”

• “No preseason football. My lone reservation comes from Jerry Jones, who once told me that only a tiny percentage of people see a game in person. If they can attend a preseason game, that would be great. Otherwise, injuries and vanilla game planning make striking preseason games no loss. More joint practices fill the gap.”

• “The NFL needs its own developmental league and not just see what comes of the current feeder leagues. With an 18-game schedule, teams need bigger rosters.”

• “People upstairs have messed with the game because they want to score and to protect the quarterbacks. They now think offense drives ratings instead of good football drives ratings. Treat the quarterback the way you would other positions.”

• “Give the defense more of a fighting chance and return the physicality to the game.”

• “Offseason rules have hindered QB development. This isn’t for all players, but quarterbacks should be able to work with team coaches whenever they want.”

Health and safety

• “No bye week until at least Week 7, and then require two bye weeks overall.”

• “Change the medical staffing landscape. Longtime trainers feel like they are part of the team. Maybe rotate doctors and trainers to avoid creating loyalty issues.”

• “More latitude with how teams handle designation of non-football injuries.”

• “Mandate more year-round care with doctors, mental health specialists and other medical professionals to help these players get through this challenging job that most won’t have for long.”