Mahomes vs. Brady: If Chiefs win Super Bowl, there will be a new playoff GOAT

[Hammock Parties]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/611...&userId=729655

If Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl this Sunday in New Orleans, the debate is over. Mahomes would become the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. Tom Brady fans might not want to admit it, but they wouldn’t have to. A mountain of evidence points to Mahomes taking the mantle from him.

Before diving into the debate, let’s clear one thing up: With all due respect to the other quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings (Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw), this is a two-horse race. Mahomes has already won more playoff games than Montana (17-16), and Bradshaw’s statistical profile pales in comparison with Brady’s and Mahomes’.

So it’s really down to two. And as you’re about to see, it’s actually down to one. Mahomes is in position to become the clear playoff GOAT.

Admittedly, it’s shocking how little time it will have taken for the torch to be passed. Just two years after Brady announced his retirement, Mahomes is poised to do something Brady — or any other QB — never did: win a third consecutive Super Bowl. Just by getting to this stage, he’s already accomplished something Brady never did. No quarterback who had won back-to-back titles had ever even returned to the Super Bowl in their quest for a three-peat. Until Mahomes. If he wins Sunday, he’ll be a four-time champion before he turns 30 — once again, something no other quarterback has ever done.

As you’ll see, the only argument in favor of Brady being the better all-time playoff QB than Mahomes is longevity. If you argue Brady is still the playoff GOAT because he won more rings (7-4 if Mahomes wins Sunday) in his 21 seasons as a healthy starter, that’s your prerogative. But just remember, Brady won 33 percent of the Super Bowls he was eligible to win; if Mahomes wins Sunday, he’ll be at 57 percent (4-of-7 as a starter). By the time Brady won his fourth title (at age 37), he was at 30 percent.

By the time you’re finished reading this story, you will understand that a four-time Super Bowl champion Mahomes wins the argument in three of the primary categories you would use to settle this debate. Mahomes will have the higher peak (three-peat); his performance in the clutch far supersedes Brady’s; and he has easily been the superior statistical performer.

Let’s start with that last point. If you just want to use stats to analyze Brady vs. Mahomes in the playoffs, this debate won’t last long. It’s Mahomes by a mile.

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 1



As you can see, Mahomes has the advantage in just about every stat that’s indicative of quarterback success or is typically used in determining superiority. Brady’s only advantage comes in sack percentage and in the places where longevity matters (total wins, fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives). But Mahomes is already closing in on Brady’s game-winning drives total, despite playing in 28 fewer games.

From an advanced metric standpoint, Mahomes’ 0.23 EPA is roughly equivalent to what Buffalo Bills superstar Josh Allen (0.24) posted during the regular season. That is to say, Mahomes plays at an MVP level in the playoffs. Brady’s mark of 0.14 nearly mirrors what Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (0.13) posted this season.

It’s also worth pointing out what an asset Mahomes has been as a runner in the playoffs. Despite playing in 28 fewer games, he’s already tallied more rushing touchdowns and first downs than Brady — the original king of the QB sneak — ever did. And that’s with virtually no difference in passing volume. Mahomes averages 277.8 passing yards per game in the postseason, and Brady averaged 279.2.

Taken on the whole, there’s pretty much no statistical argument for Brady.

But Mahomes’ superiority goes beyond total stats. We all know Brady’s reputation in the playoffs was that if you gave him the ball in a had-to-have-it situation, he was going to make you pay. It was inevitable. Put another way: Before Mahomes, you could have won any GOAT QB argument in favor of Brady by simply asking: If you could pick any quarterback to win one playoff game, who would it be?

The answer was Brady. It had to be. But not anymore. If you could pick any QB to win one big game, to lead your team down the field in a have-to-have-it situation, you pick Mahomes. He’s the new clutch king.

The data speaks for itself. These are their playoff numbers in one-score games in the last five minutes and overtime:

Mahomes vs. Brady, Part 2



The gap between Mahomes and Brady is even wider here. Look at the EPA. Brady raised his play to MVP level in these scenarios, but Mahomes goes to another planet. The greatest EPA regular season ever recorded (dating to 2000) was posted by Peyton Manning in 2004. He delivered 0.45 EPA, according to TruMedia. Brady’s historic 2007 season EPA was 0.41. Somehow, when it matters most, Mahomes is better than the best ever.

Brady and the New England Patriots used to feel inevitable, but they don’t hold a candle to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Now, to get ahead of (at least) one argument Brady’s defenders will try to use, we’ve analyzed another set of data to prove the point. Eras.

Some will say the early part of Brady’s career occurred before the league became so pass heavy. That’s somewhat fair. Though it’s impossible to assess what kind of numbers Brady might have posted if he had played in a more pass-happy league in the early part of his career, it’s at least worth mentioning the difference in eras isn’t quite as severe as you’d think.

NFL teams in 2024 averaged 1.5 passing touchdowns and 217.6 yards per game. In 2000, Brady’s first year as a starter, teams averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns and 206.9 yards per game. QBs today complete a greater percentage of passes and throw fewer interceptions, but again, the numbers aren’t drastic.

Still, let’s try to even things out a little. Let’s drop early-career Brady and his first three Super Bowls and use only his numbers from 2014 until his retirement, a span in which he won four Super Bowls.

That’s an eight-year sample, similar to the seven years Mahomes has been the starter in Kansas City, with their time overlapping for five seasons (2018-22). So, let’s take a look at how the data stacks up now. Again, we’re looking at one-score playoff games in the last five minutes and overtime:



Brady saw an increase in his performance when dropping his 2001-13 data, but it’s clear his numbers still don’t stack up against Mahomes’. It’s a similar story if you move away from clutch situations and look at their playoff numbers as a whole. Mahomes wins in almost every significant category.

Sure, it’s fair to suggest Mahomes’ metrics could fade as he ages. After all, few have ever held off time and aged as gracefully as Brady. Then again, haven’t we all learned by now that betting against Mahomes is a bad idea?

OK, so when we said there was only one argument (longevity) in favor of Brady, that might have been a touch unfair. It should at least be mentioned that Brady is 2-0 against Mahomes in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl victory.

However, for those keen to use that argument for Brady, let’s remember Eli Manning is 2-0 against Brady in the playoffs, including two Super Bowls, and no one would dare suggest Manning is the superior playoff quarterback. Two games are too small of a sample to determine much, and head-to-head matchups are too circumstantial to use as significant evidence.

The truth is, the further you dive into this debate, the more the evidence stacks up for Mahomes over Brady. Here’s just a small sampling of further research:

• With a win against the Eagles on Sunday, Mahomes will have won 10 straight playoff games, which would tie Brady’s record from 2001 to 2005. The difference, however, is Brady’s Patriots missed the playoffs entirely in 2002, whereas no one has beaten the Chiefs since the 2021 AFC Championship Game.

• Mahomes already has the second-most wins in the playoffs when his team trails by double-digits (five). He’s only one behind Brady, but Mahomes is 5-2 when he has found himself down double digits, and Brady finished 6-8.

• Mahomes’ teams have scored 595 points in his first 20 playoff games (29.7 points per game); Brady’s teams scored 455 (23.9) in his first 20. Want to adjust for era again? Mahomes’ 595 points are more than Brady’s teams scored in his last 20 playoff games, too (568).

• Brady’s defenses only allowed 20.8 points per game in the playoffs, and Mahomes’ defenses have yielded 23.1. Once again, if you adjust for era and only count Brady’s playoff games from 2014 onward, Brady still got more help from his defenses. They allowed just 21.8 points per game.

I understand those who want to stand by Brady and his seven championships. But if you had to pick one QB to win a Super Bowl, could you really pick against Mahomes? I couldn’t.

If his Chiefs win Sunday, the debate will be over. Mahomes will be the greatest playoff quarterback of all time. And part of me wonders: Isn’t that just really saying he’s the greatest quarterback of all time?

That’s an argument for another day.

[crispystl]

Duh

[Rainbarrel]

They each can have their own category
Goat - Mahomes
GOAT is an horrific moniker

[seamonster]

Until het get's four rings I'd put Mahomes a hair behind Montana...Brady's been disqualified as far as I'm concerned. He's the only HOF QB that got suspended four games for cheating and had his backup leak details to the league about com's on his helmet being open well after the ball was snapped. And he acted like a princess and a cancer in the locker room. And unlike Montana and Mahomes he was a pedestrian in those early super bowls. He's the Barry Bonds of Football.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

It's gonna hurt a lot of people to read it, but it's true.

Beyond just the raw numbers, the eye test just tells us all that it's way harder to beat Mahomes in playoff games than it was Brady. And I know that may sound silly because Tom went 2-0 against him, but you always have to be on your shit to beat Patrick. And so do your teammates.

Meanwhile Brady lost to some dog shit QBs in his days.

[TripleThreat]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

It's gonna hurt a lot of people to read it, but it's true.

Beyond just the raw numbers, the eye test just tells us all that it's way harder to beat Mahomes in playoff games than it was Brady. And I know that may sound silly because Tom went 2-0 against him, but you always have to be on your shit to beat Patrick. And so do your teammates.

Meanwhile Brady lost to some dog shit QBs in his days.

To be fair and to not suck Brady off too much, when I watched him play in NE during the playoffs, I never counted them out, and they usually didn’t dissapoint.

In addition, he went to TB, won a Super Bowl in his first year and then lost in the playoffs to the eventual superbowl winners in the 2nd year… that’s how much he added to a team in the playoffs…

It’s also worth noting that having a good defense is critical to winning superbowls (look at lions). Rams should have beaten the eagles and held them to a low scoring game, then the eagles go and decimate the lions..

[crispystl]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Beyond just the raw numbers, the eye test just tells us

This. Anyone that watches a lot of football should be able to SEE the talent difference. If they can't then the two of us are simply watching different games.

[Omaha]

If I have 1 drive to win the game & I can have any QB to do it, Brady is not in my top 10.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Omaha

If I have 1 drive to win the game & I can have any QB to do it, Brady is not in my top 10.

Dumb

[Omaha]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

Dumb

LOL. How?

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Omaha

LOL. How?

LOL brady has the most super bowls in league history and the most 4th quarter comebacks in the playoffs


LOL

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

LOL brady has the most super bowls in league history and the most 4th quarter comebacks in the playoffs


LOL

Yeah nevermind the super bowl winning seasons in which the patriots cheated, but those are all minor details...

[Omaha]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

LOL brady has the most super bowls in league history and the most 4th quarter comebacks in the playoffs


LOL

Super Bowls are team accomplishments and, if you play for 120 years, you're bound to have a lot of comebacks. For as long as he played, he should have been much higher on that list.

The SB thing is dumb. By that logic, Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino.

[kysirsoze]

Originally Posted by Omaha

If I have 1 drive to win the game & I can have any QB to do it, Brady is not in my top 10.

This is crazy. Name em.


(And goddamn you for making me defend Brady.)

[RunKC]

It blows my mind that Tom Brady blew the playoff QB stats/rings out of the water from best ever at the time (Montana) and it took him playing to 43 years old to do it.

Mahomes is halfway to every Brady metric and he’s only 29.

Playoff wins:
Brady 35
Mahomes 17

Playoff TD’s:
Brady 88
Mahomes 43

Rings:
Brady 7
Mahomes 3, potentially 4 on Sunday

SB appearances:
Brady 10
Mahomes 5

Playoff wins:
Brady 35
Mahomes 17, potentially 18 on Sunday

Conference championships appearances:
Brady 14
Mahomes 7

With Andy the next 5 years (at least) he could do a lot of damage to Brady. He won 3 SB’s with Andy in his first 6 years with him. Andy’s contract with us is for 6 years (counting this one).

With the way things are going Mahomes could be close to Brady by the time he’s 35