What is wrong with Mahomes' deep ball?

[TLO]

I was in the camp most of the season in saying that these guys are going to get on the same page, and eventually the deep shots will start hitting.

After today, I'm not sure this is the case.

Is this an offensive line issue? Just not enough time for Mahomes to set and fire an accurate deep ball?

Is it an WR issue? We have 1 burner in Worthy, but the rest of our receivers are slow.

Is it a Mahomes issue?

Someone smarter than me tell me what's going on.

[KC_Connection]

He's doing it to piss the fans off so they have something to complain about during a 13-1 season.

[threebag]

We’ll Be Fine

[BlackOp]

He'll "magically" start hitting those in stride...just watch.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

He'll "magically" start hitting those in stride...just watch.

You actually think he’s missing them intentionally to create drama or something?

[louie aguiar]

It’s a combination of factors (obviously the poor protection and not having a recover like Tyreek are huge factors) but it seems like it’s in his head at this point. He has the yips when it comes to deep balls. He’s usually sailing it well past his target. It’s sad to see him go from one of the better deep ball passers in the NFL to one of the worst.

[BlackOp]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

You actually think he’s missing them intentionally to create drama or something?

If he had hit on the 7-8 bombs this year...do you think teams would defend them differently in the post-season?

I think this whole season has been a fact finding mission for a three-peat....that has always been the main objective. To make history...it's never been done for a reason. It's almost impossible...

I think they've been keeping things close to the vest until they are needed...whenever they need a drive, they suddenly kick in gear.

I think this has been a deliberate strategy from day one...red zone plays have shown little creativity all year.

If I'm correct...it'll go down as one of the biggest snowjobs in sports history. They'll be talking about it 50 years from now.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by BlackOp

If he had hit on the 7-8 bombs this year...do you think teams would defend them differently in the post-season?

I think this whole season has been a fact finding mission for a three-peat....that has always been the main objective. To make history...it's never been done for a reason. It's almost impossible...

I think they've been keeping things close to the vest until they are needed...whenever they need a drive, they suddenly kick in gear.

I think this has been a deliberate strategy from day one...red zone plays have shown little creativity all year.

If I'm correct...it'll go down as one of the biggest snowjobs in sports history. They'll be talking about it 50 years from now.

We're about to find out.

[Regime]

Yep zero doubt he’ll hit his stride down the stretch.

[Chiefspants]

Here’s what I got.

1. Mahomes deep ball, even at its best, was usually regarded as average. He usually doesn’t put a whole lot of loft into it (likely because he doesn’t need to), but this makes deep throws harder to time and doesn’t leave the receiver with a whole lot of time to adjust.

2. There’s been great discussion on this in the Mahomes thread (by DJ and others) that Mahomes cut his teeth in the NFL primarily by receivers who were not great at over the shoulder catches. Hill is a great example here, as he liked to pivot and turn. This meant Mahomes spent his four years with primary pass catchers (Hill and Kelce) demanding that the grand majority of his balls be thrown in this fashion. Hill also gave Patrick a hell of a margin of error with perhaps the greatest tracking ability I’ve ever seen on a football field.

***Sammy Watkins is a major exception to this rule, as he grabbed three of Mahomes best long balls in his career during the postseason.

3. MVS continued this trend. He never seemed to have the over the shoulder catch mastered and preferred to turn and catch. He also seemed rather clueless on deep routes more often than not.

4. Now I believe Mahomes deserves a little grace for his line this season. He has been getting obliterated, and it’s caused him to lean into some bad habits. Kurt Warner, who has more often than not been critical of Mahomes through the years, has championed Mahomes play this year and credited Patrick as the reason why we were able to win the division. It makes sense that Mahomes has felt sped up this year especially as he tries to master timing with receivers he didn’t have coming into the year.

5. So where does that leave us? You take Patrick, who is elite in almost everything but the deep ball, and have him spend the first six years with a cast of receivers who also prefer not to catch the ball over the shoulder, and now ask him to fix this issue in a season where he’s had to rely on abysmal blocking on his blindside, and idk, it seems natural that there’s some issues as teams are now daring Patrick to win deep - especially as Patrick is grappling with lower body injuries (an issue through his career) and an admitted lack of trust with his tackles.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Here’s what I got.

1. Mahomes deep ball, even at its best, was usually regarded as average. He usually doesn’t put a whole lot of loft into it (likely because he doesn’t need to), but this makes deep throws harder to time and doesn’t leave the receiver with a whole lot of time to adjust.

2. There’s been great discussion on this in the Mahomes thread (by DJ and others) that Mahomes cut his teeth in the NFL primarily by receivers who were not great at over the shoulder catches. Hill is a great example here, as he liked to pivot and turn. This meant Mahomes spent his four years with primary pass catchers (Hill and Kelce) demanding that the grand majority of his balls be thrown in this fashion. Hill also gave Patrick a hell of a margin of error with perhaps the greatest tracking ability I’ve ever seen on a football field.

***Sammy Watkins is a major exception to this rule, as he grabbed three of Mahomes best long balls in his career during the postseason.

3. MVS continued this trend. He never seemed to have the over the shoulder catch mastered and preferred to turn and catch. He also seemed rather clueless on deep routes more often than not.

4. Now I believe Mahomes deserves a little grace for his line this season. He has been getting obliterated, and it’s caused him to lean into some bad habits. Kurt Warner, who has more often than not been critical of Mahomes through the year, has championed Mahomes play this year and credited Patrick as the reason why we were able to win the division. It makes sense that Mahomes has felt sped up this year especially as he tries to master timing with receivers he didn’t have coming into the year.

5. So where does that leave us? You take Patrick, who is elite in almost everything but the deep ball, and have him spend the first six years with a cast of receivers who also prefer not to catch the ball over the shoulder, and now ask him to fix this issue in a season where he’s had to rely on abysmal blocking on his blindside, and idk, it seems natural that there’s some issues as teams are now daring Patrick to win deep - especially as Patrick is grappling with lower body injuries (an issue through his career) and an admitted lack of trust with his tackles.

The hill things makes no sense and I've always said so. Hill made over the shoulder catches plenty of times when the ball was thrown well and in stride. The only reasons he turned were if Mahomes underthrew it or threw too flat to catch over the shoulder which happened a lot or if he needed to jump and attack the ball because there was a safety on top and he wanted to catch the ball before the safety could make a play on it. But if Mahomes put some air under the ball, he had no problem catching it over his shoulder.

It's always been a Mahomes thing. He just struggles with putting air under the ball and letting players run under it in stride.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by -King-

The hill things makes no sense and I've always said so. Hill made over the shoulder catches plenty of times when the ball was thrown well and in stride. The only reasons he turned were if Mahomes underthrew it or threw too flat to catch over the shoulder which happened a lot or if he needed to jump and attack the ball because there was a safety on top and he wanted to catch the ball before the safety could make a play on it. But if Mahomes put some air under the ball, he had no problem catching it over his shoulder.

It's always been a Mahomes thing. He just struggles with putting air under the ball and letting players run under it in stride.

That wasn't the case in college. I think he respects those pro defenses more than he should, ends up putting way too much juice on the throws instead of just putting a nice touch on the ball like he did many times in college hitting the receivers in stride on the deep ball.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by DRM08

That wasn't the case in college. I think he respects those pro defenses more than he should, ends up putting way too much juice on the throws instead of just putting a nice touch on the ball like he did many times in college hitting the receivers in stride on the deep ball.

Yeah that could be it. I also think that because he knows he has a strong arm, he's scared he's going to overthrow someone if he just moons it so he just throws right at them on a line just to be safe. Kind of like how Alex Smith knew he didn't have a strong arm and would put everything he had into a throw and end up overthrowing the receiver. So it could be a case of overcorrection.

But that wouldn't explain the way he's overthrowing the deep ball on some plays. I don't know, just spitballing here.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by -King-

The hill things makes no sense and I've always said so. Hill made over the shoulder catches plenty of times when the ball was thrown well and in stride. The only reasons he turned were if Mahomes underthrew it or threw too flat to catch over the shoulder which happened a lot or if he needed to jump and attack the ball because there was a safety on top and he wanted to catch the ball before the safety could make a play on it. But if Mahomes put some air under the ball, he had no problem catching it over his shoulder.

It's always been a Mahomes thing. He just struggles with putting air under the ball and letting players run under it in stride.

You made me watch Hill’s 2022/2023 highlights and search the Dolphins subreddit after this.

He definitely made more over the shoulder catches than I gave him credit for in those highlights. He did lead the league in drops in 2023, and some Dolphins fans claimed he struggled to reel in over the shoulder balls that hit him in the hands. Idk. My eye test says he always preferred to pivot and make more of a basket catch against his body, and I still see that more often than not watching his Phin highlights.

[Bearcat]

I get the "he's never been good at the long ball" stuff for those 3rd and short bombs, but a few long passes today weren't "**** it Worthy down there somewhere" and throw it as far as humanly possible, they were relatively easy throws for what, like ~30-40 yards?

And yeah the line sucks, but this is the same quarterback who used to throw cross-body 40 yards across and downfield to guys on a dime or throw it 50 yards downfield on the run, and he's struggling with relatively simple throws with no one in his face or breathing down his neck.