Chiefs Conspiracy Theroy: Mahomes is the most bailed out QB

DenverChief · 09-18-2024, 04:04 AM

Fascinating stats and the real result is

To start, this stat has no denominator. The player we would expect to lead the league in interceptions overturned by penalties since the start of 2018 is the guy who has thrown the most passes of any kind over that timeframe: Patrick Mahomes, with 3,608 pass attempts.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Jared Goff (3,508) is the only QB within 300 attempts. Because he's thrown more than anyone, Mahomes leads since 2018 in lots of things, like passes completed for exactly 13 yards (96) or yards on slants (1,215). So it's no surprise that he leads the league in overturned INTs.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

After that play in the Bengals game, this stat was used to further the idea that Mahomes is being bailed out for bad passes by referees. The problem is that there's a penalty which wipes off a lot of interceptions that has nothing to do with referee judgment calls: Offsides.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Eight of those 17 interceptions were plays where a defender went offsides and Mahomes threw the ball up on a free play. Those obviously aren't bailout calls. (Furthermore, the most famous offsides call last year was on ... then-Chiefs player Kadarius Toney.)
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

One of the 17 didn't actually wipe off an interception - Matt Judon was flagged for unnecessary roughness during a return, and the Ravens still took possession of the football, which leaves 16 picks. (It's possible I'm missing one, but the stat in the tweet isn't sourced at all.)
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

So that leaves eight overturned interceptions we can ascribe to plays that involve referee judgment calls (DPI, roughing the passer, illegal contact, etc). Including the interceptions, that's about one for every 452 passes Mahomes has thrown since 2018.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

It's one of the higher rates I can find, but there's one quarterback who has a higher rate of interceptions overturned by plays that involve a referee's discretion since 2018, and it isn't going to help Bengals fans who are worried about a conspiracy against them.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Joe Burrow has had eight interceptions overturned by penalties since joining the league (two offsides, four DPI, an illegal use of hands, and a defensive holding.) That's six judgment calls across 1,966 pass attempts, or one every 327.7 attempts.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

In other words, Mahomes wasn't even the quarterback who had been bailed out by judgment calls from referees most often in the game he was playing on Sunday, let alone league-wide.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024

Womble · 09-18-2024, 04:06 AM

Conspiracy theory: Fans of other teams are butthurt that they do not have Patrick Mahomes as their QB.

DenverChief · 09-18-2024, 04:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Womble

Conspiracy theory: Fans of other teams are butthurt that they do not have Patrick Mahomes as their QB.

Butt that’s not conspiracy that’s factual truth

**Rausch** · 09-18-2024, 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DenverChief

Butt that’s not conspiracy that’s factual truth

Imagine that we live in a reality where our QB is so ****ing good the average person doesn't believe it's even possible without NFL help.

Red Dawg · 09-18-2024, 04:28 AM

crazy.. Burrow is the one the refs love.

**HemiEd** · 09-18-2024, 05:11 AM

It's so nice to be on this side of the other fans hate.

In all honesty, I feel like Mahomes doesn't get enough calls. Especially on the late hits.

But after watching the Dallas/Saints and Baltimore/Vegas games last Sunday I have decided the officiating is either deplorable or the proliferation of gambling might be having some influence.

PatMahomesIsGod · 09-18-2024, 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HemiEd

It's so nice to be on this side of the other fans hate.

In all honesty, I feel like Mahomes doesn't get enough calls. Especially on the late hits.

But after watching the Dallas/Saints and Baltimore/Vegas games last Sunday I have decided the officiating is either deplorable or the proliferation of gambling might be having some influence.

Why not both?

**HemiEd** · 09-18-2024, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PatMahomesIsGod

Why not both?

Good point, I think it is now that you mention it.

DrunkBassGuitar · 09-18-2024, 05:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HemiEd

It's so nice to be on this side of the other fans hate.

In all honesty, I feel like Mahomes doesn't get enough calls. Especially on the late hits.

But after watching the Dallas/Saints and Baltimore/Vegas games last Sunday I have decided the officiating is either deplorable or the proliferation of gambling might be having some influence.

Which one was the game where the one guy punched another player (who was just standing on the sidelines) and no flag was thrown? BAL/LV?

**HemiEd** · 09-18-2024, 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrunkBassGuitar

Which one was the game where the one guy punched another player (who was just standing on the sidelines) and no flag was thrown? BAL/LV?

I don't recall but that is the first time ever seeing that.

mr. tegu · 09-18-2024, 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HemiEd

It's so nice to be on this side of the other fans hate.

In all honesty, I feel like Mahomes doesn't get enough calls. Especially on the late hits.

But after watching the Dallas/Saints and Baltimore/Vegas games last Sunday I have decided the officiating is either deplorable or the proliferation of gambling might be having some influence.

Whats the issue in the Saints game? It was effectively over at the half and no point spreads or OU was ever in question.

**HemiEd** · 09-18-2024, 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Whats the issue in the Saints game? It was effectively over at the half and no point spreads or OU was ever in question.

IMO they weren't making any calls for Dallas early, then it got out of hand. Lots of DPI not called. Lots of offensive line holding not called.

It was like "not today mother ****ers" early. I was saying to myself, there must have been a shit ton of money bet on Dallas after last weeks great showing.

***edit*** of course I could have been looking at it a little from the not so objective side since I had put 5k on both games in the gambling thread.

RedinTexas · 09-18-2024, 05:50 AM

If the Chiefs led the league in receiving the most inexplicably dumb calls made by the referees against us, nobody would care except us.

SHOWTIME · 09-18-2024, 05:57 AM

The most important question - were these flags thrown after the INT was made or when the ball was either in Mahomes' hand or still in the air? In the case of offsides, the flag is usually thrown immediately, for example.

KC_Connection · 09-18-2024, 05:59 AM

Mahomes is easily the best QB ever at recognizing he has a free play and making use of it/taking more risk. Even better than Rodgers.

09-18-2024, 04:04 AM	Topic Starter
DenverChief Pedantic Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Rocky Ford Casino cash: $4242617	Conspiracy Theroy: Mahomes is the most bailed out QB Fascinating stats and the real result is To start, this stat has no denominator. The player we would expect to lead the league in interceptions overturned by penalties since the start of 2018 is the guy who has thrown the most passes of any kind over that timeframe: Patrick Mahomes, with 3,608 pass attempts. — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 Jared Goff (3,508) is the only QB within 300 attempts. Because he's thrown more than anyone, Mahomes leads since 2018 in lots of things, like passes completed for exactly 13 yards (96) or yards on slants (1,215). So it's no surprise that he leads the league in overturned INTs. — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 After that play in the Bengals game, this stat was used to further the idea that Mahomes is being bailed out for bad passes by referees. The problem is that there's a penalty which wipes off a lot of interceptions that has nothing to do with referee judgment calls: Offsides. — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 Eight of those 17 interceptions were plays where a defender went offsides and Mahomes threw the ball up on a free play. Those obviously aren't bailout calls. (Furthermore, the most famous offsides call last year was on ... then-Chiefs player Kadarius Toney.) — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 One of the 17 didn't actually wipe off an interception - Matt Judon was flagged for unnecessary roughness during a return, and the Ravens still took possession of the football, which leaves 16 picks. (It's possible I'm missing one, but the stat in the tweet isn't sourced at all.) — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 So that leaves eight overturned interceptions we can ascribe to plays that involve referee judgment calls (DPI, roughing the passer, illegal contact, etc). Including the interceptions, that's about one for every 452 passes Mahomes has thrown since 2018. — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 It's one of the higher rates I can find, but there's one quarterback who has a higher rate of interceptions overturned by plays that involve a referee's discretion since 2018, and it isn't going to help Bengals fans who are worried about a conspiracy against them. — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 Joe Burrow has had eight interceptions overturned by penalties since joining the league (two offsides, four DPI, an illegal use of hands, and a defensive holding.) That's six judgment calls across 1,966 pass attempts, or one every 327.7 attempts. — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024 In other words, Mahomes wasn't even the quarterback who had been bailed out by judgment calls from referees most often in the game he was playing on Sunday, let alone league-wide. — Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 18, 2024
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09-18-2024, 04:06 AM	#2
Womble Veteran Join Date: Nov 2022 Casino cash: $-6299500	Conspiracy theory: Fans of other teams are butthurt that they do not have Patrick Mahomes as their QB. __________________ My 2023 give up a Chief for adoption is Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
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09-18-2024, 04:28 AM	#5
Red Dawg Going home eventually Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $3192858	crazy.. Burrow is the one the refs love. __________________ If you're not first you're last!
Posts: 31,650	1 0

09-18-2024, 05:11 AM	#6
HemiEd Supporter Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Ozarks Casino cash: $1410564	It's so nice to be on this side of the other fans hate. In all honesty, I feel like Mahomes doesn't get enough calls. Especially on the late hits. But after watching the Dallas/Saints and Baltimore/Vegas games last Sunday I have decided the officiating is either deplorable or the proliferation of gambling might be having some influence.
Posts: 34,117

09-18-2024, 05:50 AM	#13
RedinTexas Veteran Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Texas Casino cash: $322500	If the Chiefs led the league in receiving the most inexplicably dumb calls made by the referees against us, nobody would care except us. __________________ DJ's left nut : "Florio's just being a ****. And a not terribly interesting or insightful one at that."
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09-18-2024, 05:59 AM	#15
KC_Connection Perpetual Mediocrity Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $3482783	Mahomes is easily the best QB ever at recognizing he has a free play and making use of it/taking more risk. Even better than Rodgers.
Posts: 52,012