McDermott chasing a point early was dumb

[jerryaldini]

McDermott going for 2 just because a penalty gave them the short extra point wound up cascading to a 3 point swing in our favor. They fail on another try and then it incentivised us to get a successful 2 for a 7 point lead in the 4th quarter. It showed their arrogance in assuming Allen is unstoppable from 2 yards out, and that arrogance continued in their later tush push failures.

Here's where the counterfactual gets interesting. Instead of being down 32-29 on their last drive, it would have been 31-31 on their 4th and 5 at the 2 minute warning. Decision time. Kick us deep, or don't take a chance on letting Mahomes have the ball back? I think they definitely still go for it given the history of Mahomes having the ball last.

Assuming so, it would have made the ending a little more dramatic with a Butker kick to end it. A good reminder why you don't chase points early. They were just trying to make it 21-18 instead of 21-17 at the end of the first half.

[Rasputin]

Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl. I appreciate Andy Reid.

[RealSNR]

I love that Andy doesn't chase points. It's absolutely silly how some coaches will do this shit in the first half.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

I love that Andy doesn't chase points. It's absolutely silly how some coaches will do this shit in the first half.

Mostly true, but I do think you should chase the points in the 4th quarter when you already have the 7 point lead and a chance to make the game a 9 point lead instead of a 8 point lead. Massive difference between a two possession lead and one possession lead in the 4th quarter.

Chiefs had this exact scenario against Houston. Andy chose to take the 8 point lead instead of trying for the 9 point lead against Houston. Thankfully it didn't matter in the end, but he extended Houston's chances by keeping it a one possession game at the time. 9 point lead would have been a lot closer to a kill shot.

[Lzen]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Mostly true, but I do think you should chase the points in the 4th quarter when you already have the 7 point lead and a chance to make the game a 9 point lead instead of a 8 point lead. Massive difference between a two possession lead and one possession lead in the 4th quarter.

Chiefs had this exact scenario against Houston. Andy chose to take the 8 point lead instead of trying for the 9 point lead against Houston. Thankfully it didn't matter in the end, but he extended Houston's chances by keeping it a one possession game at the time. 9 point lead would have been a lot closer to a kill shot.

Meh, I don't necessarily think Andy made the wrong decision. Think about it like this. What if you go for 2 and don't get it. Then, you only have a 7 point lead. The other team comes down, scores a TD, goes for 2 and you lose on that stupidity.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by DRM08

Mostly true, but I do think you should chase the points in the 4th quarter when you already have the 7 point lead and a chance to make the game a 9 point lead instead of a 8 point lead. Massive difference between a two possession lead and one possession lead in the 4th quarter.

Chiefs had this exact scenario against Houston. Andy chose to take the 8 point lead instead of trying for the 9 point lead against Houston. Thankfully it didn't matter in the end, but he extended Houston's chances by keeping it a one possession game at the time. 9 point lead would have been a lot closer to a kill shot.

It would've also opened up the possibility, though remote, of a regulation loss against a team you're clearly better than at home.

Make it an 8 point game. Make them score, go for 2 to tie, and STILL have to hang on against a superior team with home field.

If you try for the 2 and don't convert, it's a 7 point game and they could score, get the 2 and now have the lead in regulation.

Kicking was the right decision in that scenario and EXACTLY the sort of instance that the 'large numbers' just don't adequately take into account. Spreadsheets may have said to go for the 2, but it would've been the wrong decision in that scenario.

[Ming the Merciless]

agree


take the point there every time

way too early not to

[Chief Pagan]

If you think you have more than a 50% of making it, I don't know, seems like playing the odds would make it worthwhile.

At that point in the game, thinking his short yardage play would work would still seem reasonable.

Sure, after KC had gotten some stops, but at that point, it seems reasonable.

If I'm the Bills, I'm absolutely playing to win.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

If you think you have more than a 50% of making it, I don't know, seems like playing the odds would make it worthwhile.

At that point in the game, thinking his short yardage play would work would still seem reasonable.

Sure, after KC had gotten some stops, but at that point, it seems reasonable.

If I'm the Bills, I'm absolutely playing to win.

You only need to convert 47.5% of the time to beat the extra point taking into account avg misses of XPs.

Elite offenses should always go for two in the first halves and of course where end of the game game theory supports it.

In the first halves of games all you should be doing is trying to maximize your EPA.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BWillie

You only need to convert 47.5% of the time to beat the extra point taking into account avg misses of XPs.

Elite offenses should always go for two in the first halves and of course where end of the game game theory supports it.

In the first halves of games all you should be doing is trying to maximize your EPA.

If only Andy thought the way you do, we could have lost more games and avoided the #1 seed.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

If only Andy thought the way you do, we could have lost more games and avoided the #1 seed.

Its just math.

.475 x 2 = 0.95 points

.95 avg XP make x 1 = 0.95 points

It honestly doesn't really make much of difference either way because two point conversion percentages fluctuate wildly year to year but since inception of the conversion I believe teams convert close to the .475 number. Its just that an elite Patrick Mahomes offense will get the 2 more often than that. So would Josh Allen.

You don't know how the rest of the game will go. So if you look back on it every game and then second guess the decision you are incorrectly making results based decisions. If you get the 2 and win a game where you would have just went for one that wouldn't be talked about near as much as the failure. Its also the reason football coaches never used to go for it on 3rd and 4th downs in obvious situations because they were scared. It all comes down to emotional fear.

With that said its not a huge mistake to go for it everytime or kick it everytime because the difference between the two is close to nil. Thats why the NFL should consider getting rid of the XP altogether or move it back to a 50 yard FG to entice coaches to go for it more.

[tyecopeland]

Originally Posted by BWillie

You only need to convert 47.5% of the time to beat the extra point taking into account avg misses of XPs.

Elite offenses should always go for two in the first halves and of course where end of the game game theory supports it.

In the first halves of games all you should be doing is trying to maximize your EPA.

I dont often agree with you, but I do here to a degree.

The math is clearly in favor of more 2 point attempts. And being on the 1 makes it a no trainer. However, if there hadn't been thr ball moved to the 1 I disagree with chasing points early, EPA be damned.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Ming the Merciless

agree


take the point there every time

way too early not to

And teams used to be WAY too conservative on going for it on fourth down because, oh my gosh. You would be made fun of by Monday morning quarterbacks when a statistically smart play didn't work out.

Yes, you can go to the other extreme, not saying that.

[TheGuardian]

It's why Dan Dampbell lost in the playoffs. It's a real thing.

[Buehler445]

I posted in another thread the refs eating bullets are doing McDermott (probably urged by Joe Brady) a ****ing solid.

TAKING POINTS OFF THE BOARD is monumentally stupid. They should be getting roasted for that shit right now, but instead the refs are over here eating bullets for the cause.