Through 13 Weeks a Stat Review

[DenverChief]

Through 13 weeks since Mahomes has been a starter. What is interesting to me is that I didn't remember we were 11-1 thru 13 weeks in 2020. Mahomes has had 11 INT thru 13 weeks the previous 2 years and his production numbers are slightly down not surprisingly because he has been sacked more this year than any other year by 8 sacks. The defense is actually still performing at a high level, even though we think they are "collapsing" and giving up big plays when in reality we are on pace for the same yards and points given up as last year, the biggest difference is we aren't generating turnovers. I'll be interested to see the difference in sacks allowed and sacks/TO's generated change with Humpries taking over at LT and Omenihu coming back into the fold on D.

W-L
2018: 10-2
2019: 8-4
2020: 11-1
2021: 8-4
2022: 9-3
2023: 8-4
2024: 11-1

Mahomes:
2018: 3,798 yds, 41 TD, 10 INT
2019: 3,482 yds, 20 TD, 2 INT
2020: 3,482 yds, 33 TD, 5 INT
2021: 3,773 yds,, 27 TD, 12 INT
2022: 4,160 yds, 33 TD, 11 INT
2023: 3,398 yds, 23 TD, 11 INT
2024: 2,979 yds, 19 TD, 11 INT


OL:
2018: 23 Sacks Allowed
2019: 13 Sacks Allowed
2020: 18 Sacks Allowed
2021: 24 Sacks Allowed
2022: 21 Sacks Allowed
2023: 18 Sacks Allowed
2024: 32 Sacks Allowed

Defense:
2018: 5,004 yards, 327 PA. 20 TO's
2019: 4,465 yards, 302 PA, 19 TO's
2020: 4,298 yards, 254 PA, 19 TO's
2021: 4,712 yards, 259, PA, 18 TO's
2022: 4,121 yards, 270 PA, 12 TO's
2023: 3,572 yards, 228 PA, 15 TO's
2024: 3,743 yards, 235 PA, 10 TO's

[InChiefsHeaven]

Seems double digit INT's are rather the norm for our boy, not the exception. Interesting.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHeaven

Seems double digit INT's are rather the norm for our boy, not the exception. Interesting.

He still has one of the lowest INT rates in NFL history, at least among relevant QBs with a lot of starts. That's not exactly trending in the right direction, but he's had a ton of unlucky picks the last few years.

[ShortRoundChief]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHeaven

Seems double digit INT's are rather the norm for our boy, not the exception. Interesting.

That’s the gunslinger mentality, although there are times I would love for him to be more aggressive.

[tredadda]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHeaven

Seems double digit INT's are rather the norm for our boy, not the exception. Interesting.

Even in college he was known to YOLO plays. Due to that the chance of higher INT numbers will be there. It’s worth it though as his great plays far outweigh his negatives ones.

[BWillie]

Originally Posted by InChiefsHeaven

Seems double digit INT's are rather the norm for our boy, not the exception. Interesting.

We also pass alot.

[RaidersOftheCellar]

Interesting that the defensive numbers are so similar to last year's. Obviously not trending in the right direction though.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar

Interesting that the defensive numbers are so similar to last year's. Obviously not trending in the right direction though.

It feels that way. But the stats aren’t bearing that out. The Bills game was the anomaly. But minus the Bills game we consistently have been holding opponents under 27 PPG. The biggest problem is not generating TO’s. The offensive numbers are the most troubling because of the sacks.

[Gary Cooper]

You can't blow opponents out if you don't force turnovers. This defense doesn't force many. Even last year they were shutting teams down but they weren't forcing many fumbles or INTs.

The blowouts you normally see in football occur when one particular team keeps turning it over with INTs, fumbles deep in their territory, pick sixes, etc. We don't force many turnovers hence our games are typically closer.

Is it because of Spags' reliance on man-to-man?

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

You can't blow opponents out if you don't force turnovers. This defense doesn't force many. Even last year they were shutting teams down but they weren't forcing many fumbles or INTs.

The blowouts you normally see in football occur when one particular team keeps turning it over with INTs, fumbles deep in their territory, pick sixes, etc. We don't force many turnovers hence our games are typically closer.

Is it because of Spags' reliance on man-to-man?

No. I think it’s because we can’t get to the QB with a 4 man rush to force fumbles or rushed throws from a QB into traffic. I think Omenihu will change that. Play Karlaftis and Omenihu on the outside with Jones and Wharton on the inside I think changes the pass rush dramatically.

[Gary Cooper]

Originally Posted by DenverChief

No. I think it’s because we can’t get to the QB with a 4 man rush to force fumbles or rushed throws from a QB into traffic. I think Omenihu will change that. Play Karlaftis and Omenihu on the outside with Jones and Wharton on the inside I think changes the pass rush dramatically.

We finished 2nd in sacks each of the last two seasons. We weren't forcing turnovers left and right even then.

[DenverChief]

Originally Posted by Gary Cooper

We finished 2nd in sacks each of the last two seasons. We weren't forcing turnovers left and right even then.

I mean one per game is better than nothing for long stretches. We had 15 turnovers in 12 games last year. So far this year we have 10 in 12. Additionally we are minus 4 in turnover differential that is also not helping the situation.

[TEX]

Those numbers wont get it done. Fix LT and evrything else becomes manageable.

[DenverChief]

More interesting stats (not thru 13 weeks but full season)

Avg Expected Points Per Drive
2018: 3.12
2019: 2.59
2020: 2.74
2021: 2.71
2022: 2.71
2023: 2.01
2024: 2.42

Percentage of Drives ending in a Score
2018: 52.6%
2019: 48.8%
2020: 47.9%
2021: 48.2%
2022: 46.4%
2023: 39.3%
2024: 46.6%

Red Zone Plays:
2018: 171 plays, 68 Ru Att, 16 TD's, 63/96 Comp/Att, 35 TD, 1 INT, 7 Sacks (29.8% of red zone plays ended in a TD)
2019: 138 plays, 67 Ru Att, 16 TD's, 33/67 Comp/Att, 11 TD, 1 INT, 4 Sacks (19.5% of red zone plays ended in a TD)
2020: 152 plays, 63 Ru Att, 10 TD's, 51/85 Comp/Att, 25 TD, 2 INT, 4 Sacks (23% of red zone plays ended in a TD)
2021: 187 plays, 79 Ru Att, 15 TD's, 62/101 Comp/Att, 26 TD, 3 INT, 7 Sacks (21.9% of red zone plays ended in a TD)
2022: 209 plays, 84 Ru Att, 16 TD's, 73/123 Comp/Att, 34 TD, 3 INT, 2 Sacks (23.9% of red zone plays ended in a TD)
2023: 171 plays, 72 Ru Att, 8 TD's, 58/94 Comp/Att, 25 TD, 2 INT, 5 Sacks, (19.2% of red zone plays ended in a TD)
2024: 144 plays, 64 Ru Att, 10 TD's, 49/75 Comp/Att, 15 TD, 2 INT, 5 Sacks (17.3% of red zone plays ended in a TD)

[RINGLEADER]

Fix LT and this offense will be fine.