Going for it on fourth down and 25

[dolphinsneu]

The reasoning behind it is that either way, you need to make a stop, so why not take a shot at it.

The counter-argument in that scenario is that you leave the possibly of needing a touchdown rather than a field goal after the stop.

I hope this starts a trend among coaches in the NFL to go for it in that situation.

If you are inside your own ten down by one, the odds turn more in your favor to go for it. The worst-case scenario is that you are guaranteed a chance to get the ball with it being a one-possession game, since the opponent can't run the clock out

[Demonpenz]

concrete poured

[Eleazar]

I think Andy probably felt like his defense was cashed and would just get the ball run down their throats. Maybe there's a better chance of converting the 4th and 20 than getting the ball back.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Razaele

I think Andy probably felt like his defense was cashed and would just get the ball run down their throats. Maybe there's a better chance of converting the 4th and 20 than getting the ball back.

This is possible. Maybe they were coached to let them score if the runner broke free for a 1st down. Then it’s still a one-score game assuming the Lions don’t go for 2.

Personally I did not like the decision. Well, at least not how it played out.

If you’re going to go for it on 4th and 20, then you need to use 3rd and 20 to gain 8-15 yards, not chuck up a prayer ball beyond the sticks.

[ChiefsCountry]

If you don't make it and can force them to 3 and out with a field goal you still have time to try and score a touchdown

[52decleetzu]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

If you don't make it and can force them to 3 and out with a field goal you still have time to try and score a touchdown

"IF" you don't make it should be "when" you don't make it. The distance is everything here not anything else. The conversion rate at 15yds is only 13.9%. What do you think it is by the time we get to 25 yards (can't find any data on that long because well no one ever tries it)? I am guessing a couple % if that.

You also have to factor in when the Lions get the ball back there is a possibility they score no more points and Chiefs get ball back with plenty of time for Mahomes. Or who knows what else might happen. But they are going to have to play offense when you have 4 timeouts. The point is 4th and 25 is NOT happening 97% of the time. So you take that off the table. There is no value to gain at such a low success rate regardless of the situation or anything else. Unless it is a total Hail Mary situation.

[ReynardMuldrake]

Originally Posted by 52decleetzu

The conversion rate at 15yds is only 13.9%.

Source?

[crispystl]

Originally Posted by 52decleetzu

"IF" you don't make it should be "when" you don't make it. The distance is everything here not anything else. The conversion rate at 15yds is only 13.9%. What do you think it is by the time we get to 25 yards (can't find any data on that long because well no one ever tries it)? I am guessing a couple % if that.

You also have to factor in when the Lions get the ball back there is a possibility they score no more points and Chiefs get ball back with plenty of time for Mahomes. Or who knows what else might happen. But they are going to have to play offense when you have 4 timeouts. The point is 4th and 25 is NOT happening 97% of the time. So you take that off the table. There is no value to gain at such a low success rate regardless of the situation or anything else. Unless it is a total Hail Mary situation.

Mahomes will convert 4th and 25 at a much higher rate than 3%. It’s probably more like 15-20 which is just insane.


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[KC_Connection]

Mahomes is one of the few players in the history of the league who can convert this without it taking some fluke (and nearly did). Had no issue with it.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by KC_Connection

Mahomes is one of the few players in the history of the league who can convert this without it taking some fluke (and nearly did). Had no issue with it.

It's telling that we are more confident on 4th and 25 than we are on 3rd/4th and 1.

At least that forces Andy to keep the ball in Mahomes' hands.

[tk13]

If we were in a 41-38 shootout and the offense was rolling then you go for it 100% of the time there. The offense did not look in sync at all in that moment though. Just looked like they were forcing things and playing in a state of panic. You can just tell when the offense feels like the second half vs the Eagles compared to the second half vs the Bengals a couple years ago where they were just completely out of whack. It just didn't feel right at all. And of course that's exactly what happened, Mahomes had to run around and throw up a prayer and the WR couldn't make the play, which is consistent with how they looked on that drive.

[Balto]

Um it went straight into the hands of Moore and should have been a 1st down.

[Molitoth]

This shouldn't even be a talking point.

[Chiefnj2]

Mahomes messed up on 3rd and 20. There was a wide open receiver (Watson?) who could have gained 10-15 yards, making the 4th manageable.

I don't understand going for it on 4th and 25. It leaves the Lions in FG position if you don't make it and then you need a TD not a field goal to potentially drive and win.

It would have been a tough catch, but Moore has to come down with a ball that hits both hands.

[Eleazar]

For all the (deserved) Toney talk, Mahomes created a miracle on 4th and 25 and Moore let it bounce off his hands.

Maybe he was targeting Watson, but this should have absolutely been caught. pic.twitter.com/nvRAzav7PN

— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) September 8, 2023