Future picks and value

[RedinTexas]

How should we value future picks? There are difficult elements to this like where the team's picks will be after next year, and how talent rich that draft will be. However, given that (all other things being equal) a pick now is inherently worth more than the same pick next year, so within the draft chart point values, how much of a discount should a future pick have? 10%? 20%? 25%?

What do you all think?

[kccrow]

Usually in the middle of the next round but it's not an exact science. So a 1st next year is equivalent to pick #48, 2nd worth pick #80, etc.

[DJ's left nut]

I've typically seen a 20% discount tacked onto them btu that's gonna depend largely on the team who's pick you have.

I figure it's pretty fair to do that with, say, a Chiefs future 4. So let's say their current 4th is worth 40 points -- it would get you 32 in return. So the Cowboys pick around 11 in the 5th round.

But that Bears 4th rounder is gonna be tougher because they're seen as an ascending team. That 4th would 'start' around 76 pts and with the multiplier and up being worth around 60. I just don't think that's gonna be how teams view it. They're gonna be seen as a team that will likely slot into the middle of the round next year; something nearer worth 50ish points as a starting value to yield you 40 as a net after the discount.

So you might be able to sneak into the back of the 4th this season but in all likelihood you're looking at maybe somehing around the Ten/Jax/LV picks at the top of 5.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Usually in the middle of the next round but it's not an exact science. So a 1st next year is equivalent to pick #48, 2nd worth pick #80, etc.

Yes, but there is a discount to any pick that is in the future. For example:

The #16 pick is valued at 1000 points in the chart I'm looking at. Let's say that the Chiefs are being offered a trade that would include the team's 1st round pick in next years draft. If we consult the chart, it says that middle of the 1st round would be approximately 1000 points. However, taking compensation in the trade that is not realized until next year's draft means that the pick is not worth 1000 points to the Chiefs. It is worth less, but how much less?

Furthermore, there is inherent risk in making such a deal because the trading partner might have a really good season which would make the pick somewhat worse. Additionally, whatever expectations we have for the level of talent in next year's draft might worsen in the interim and make the value of that pick somewhat worse than what we currently expect. There are risks involved in taking deferred compensation.

How much do we discount that future pick due to the fact that we won't realize it until next year?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RedinTexas

Yes, but there is a discount to any pick that is in the future. For example:

The #16 pick is valued at 1000 points in the chart I'm looking at. Let's say that the Chiefs are being offered a trade that would include the team's 1st round pick in next years draft. If we consult the chart, it says that middle of the 1st round would be approximately 1000 points. However, taking compensation in the trade that is not realized until next year's draft means that the pick is not worth 1000 points to the Chiefs. It is worth less, but how much less?

Furthermore, there is inherent risk in making such a deal because the trading partner might have a really good season which would make the pick somewhat worse. Additionally, whatever expectations we have for the level of talent in next year's draft might worsen in the interim and make the value of that pick somewhat worse than what we currently expect. There are risks involved in taking deferred compensation.

How much do we discount that future pick due to the fact that we won't realize it until next year?

As I said, the future 1 is worth pick #48 or 420 points. It has nothing to do with the current pick.

Sometimes teams will discount them a full round, so if a team picks at #24, the value of a future 1 is #56 instead of #48.

Going in reverse, any trade of a current pick for a future pick is generally valued 1 round higher. So if a team wants my 3rd rounder this year, they have to pony up a 2nd rounder next year.

There isn't really a % discount you can apply because the higher a team picks in the draft the less value a future 1 actually has for them on a percentage basis than a team picking later in the draft.

Let's say a team is picking #10 and a team is willing to discount a full round, that means a future 1 from that team is worth pick #42. That's a 65% discount. If a team is picking #30 and we discount a full round, then that's #62. That equates to a 54% discount.

It's all less than an exact science. Teams use different value boards and different GMs make different value considerations, especially after round 4.

When the Chiefs traded up for Mahomes, using a future value of the middle of the next round, KC would have been over on points on the Rich Hill model and under on the Jimmy Johnson model. Had they used a future value of discounting by exactly 1 round, they would have been under on both charts.