Discount Kiper 2023 Mock @ Q1 of Season

[kccrow]

Spitballing some early ideas.

Release: DE F. Clark (19.6m savings)

Extend: DT C. Jones 3y 70.0m in new money converting 16.0m to signing bonus of 2023 salary, add 20m in new bonus money, and fully guarantee 3.5m 2023 and 13.25m 2024 salaries for net guarantee of 42.75m on an overall 4y 97.0m deal (approx hits: 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 29.5)

Let walk:
LT O. Brown, Jr., WR J. Smith-Schuster, ER C. Dunlap, QB C. Henne, RB R. Jones II, TE B. Bell, WR M. Hardman, RB J. McKinnon, CB C. Lammons, CB R. Fenton, OG N. Allegretti, RB J. Ealy, DT D. Nnadi, S J. Thornhill

Re-sign:
DT K. Saunders - 1y 1.1m - Saunders has flashed ability to be a quality rotational 1-tech but availability has been an issue so anything more than vet min area is probably off the table for one more season. He's 3rd in PT at the position after Jones and Wharton as it seems Nnadi is falling out of favor.
DT T. Wharton - RFA tag 1y 2.6m ROFR - Wharton has seen a surprising majority of snaps at DT over Saunders and Nnadi so retaining him is probably on the docket.
RT A. Wylie - 1y 3.0m - Wylie is backup grade as a RT, honestly, but he's a quality guy to keep around.
FB M. Burton - 1y 1.3m - Reid's going to have his FB wasting a spot.
S D. Bush - 1y 1.1m - If he can continue to be solid on STs, he's got a good shot of coming back.
WR J. Watson - VSB 1y 1.3m - Watson keeps flashing breakout ability.
LB D. Harris - ERFA tag 1y 870k - Always sign your ERFAs if they aren't total shit, and none of KC's are garbage.
TE J. Fortson - ERFA tag 1y 870k
P Tommy Townsend - 3y 9.0m - Going rate contract for re-signing punters, and Townsend has come around pretty well.
QB S. Buechel - ERFA tag 1y 870k
OT P. Tega-Wanogho - ERFA tag 1y 870k

FA Sign:
WR Darius Slayton (NYG) - 1 yr 1.1m - Slayton looked really good in years 1 and 2 then regressed a bit in production in year 3. He's been buried down the chart. Something tells me he could be a plus signing as a free agent. He might get a team 600 yards as a #3, and I have him coming in a cheap get to replace Hardman plus he brings solid speed.
WR Nelson Agholor (NE) - 1 yr 9.0m - Agholor is a solid but unspectacular player. He should be a better fit in Reid's offense than Smith-Schuster as he at least brings some speed and vertical threat. A guy that can function as a #1-type while young guys come up to speed.
OT George Fant (NYJ) - 2y 20.0m - Fant has a penchant for ending up on the injury list but he's a solid player. He's a better RT than LT, and that's the reason to bring him in - be the starting RT unless your rookie draft pick can't hack it yet.
DE Dawuane Smoot (JAX) - 2y 13.5m Smoot is a solid player that can get pressure on the QB and should come at a relatively modest price tag where a Samson Ebukam type of contract seems likely.

Chiefs Draft

R1: Trade Seattle R1 pick, 2022 R3 pick, and 2023 R2 pick to move up into the top 15.

1. OT Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland (6'5" 320)
Duncan can move and looks like the next great LT in the NFL to me. He has to iron out some technique warts but I lean a bit more toward the physical needs and he has them in spades.
2. WR Rashee Rice, SMU (6'1" 189)
Rice has been spectacular for SMU and could go higher than this if he takes the doors off at the combine, but as of right now he's a smaller-school superstar and they tend to end up in round 2.
3. DT Zacch Pickens, South Carolina (J2 for Poles)
Pickens has sometimes flashed some pass rush but isn't a stud there. He stands out as a quality run stopper though. He fits as a Jarran Reed type at the 1.
4. TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati (6'6" 245) (f/MIA)
Whyle reminds me an awful lot of Kelce coming out aside from sharing an alma mater, and that's not a bad thing. He's been really productive at Cincy.
4. DE Keion White, Georgia Tech (6'4" 260)
White was outstanding at Old Dominion. He was injured last year but has looked really good in his return in 2022.
5. OT Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (6'5" 322)
I like me some Matt Bergeron and I think he's a RT of the future. He definitely has some swing potential.
6. RB Roschon Johnson, Texas (6'1" 225) (f/ MIA)
Johnson might go higher on potential alone but he projects as a 3rd down back that lacks some power (similar to Pacheco coming out) so I'm not setting the ceiling on his draft position overly high.
6. FS Jordan Howden, Minnesota (6'0" 205)
Howden is criminally underrated in my opinion and could be at least a nice piece on the cheap, especially as a rotational backup and special teamer.
7. OG TJ Bass, Oregon (6'4" 318)
Bass won't survive in the NFL as a tackle so he'll need to move inside to guard. He needs some strength work for that move but he has good movement skills and Power 5 experience.

QB: P. Mahomes, S. Buechele
RB: C. Edwards-Helaire, I. Pacheco, R. Johnson, M. Burton (FB)
WR: N. Agholor, D. Slayton, M. Valdez-Scantling, S. Moore, R. Rice, J. Watson, J. Ross
TE: T. Kelce, J. Whyle, N. Gray, J. Fortson
OT: J. Duncan, G. Fant, A. Wylie, M. Bergeron, L. Niang, P. Tega-Wanogho
OG: J. Thuney, T. Smith, D. Kinnard, T. Bass
OC: C. Humphrey

DE: G. Karlaftis, D. Smoot, M. Danna, K. White, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT: C. Jones, Z. Pickens, T. Wharton, K. Saunders
LB: N. Bolton, L. Chenal, W. Gay, D. Harris, J. Cochrane
CB: T. McDuffie, W. Sneed, J. Watson, J. Williams, N. Johnson
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, D. Bush, J. Howden

[Stro39]

I would have thought you guys go WR first round, but I guess it depends on who is there. WRs value have been rising year on year and many are just ready to step in straight away and contribute unlike other positions.

There will be a LOT of trading in the first round I think just because of the amount of potential franchise QBs (and none last year), I think its going to be hard to trade up for the Chiefs just because there will be a number of relatively one-sided trades, ie teams selling the farm in terms of picks to get The Guy at QB. Chiefs aren't likely to match these trades to move up obviously.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Stro39

I would have thought you guys go WR first round, but I guess it depends on who is there. WRs value have been rising year on year and many are just ready to step in straight away and contribute unlike other positions.

There will be a LOT of trading in the first round I think just because of the amount of potential franchise QBs (and none last year), I think its going to be hard to trade up for the Chiefs just because there will be a number of relatively one-sided trades, ie teams selling the farm in terms of picks to get The Guy at QB. Chiefs aren't likely to match these trades to move up obviously.

I'm of the opposite opinion, honestly.

Stroud and Young probably go 1 and 2 or 3 overall and DE Anderson should end up at 2 or 3 depending on QB need. So, movement in the top 3 is unlikely at best.

At QB, that leaves Levis as the next guy more than likely up. Will teams fight over him? I don't see it happening. Maybe he goes around 10 and a team moves up but I just don't see anyone selling the farm for him. Richardson or McKee might also end up in round 1, but that's a fringe proposition I think.

There could be a fight over the top few WRs but last year showed teams weren't very willing to go up into the top 10 for them. I don't see a ton of skill difference between those receivers last year and this year's crop. So, you're probably competing for near equivalent slotting as anyone that might be moving up for a WR in those picks 11-14.

It actually looks to be shaping up to be similar to the 2020 draft IMO.

[Stro39]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'm of the opposite opinion, honestly.

Stroud and Young probably go 1 and 2 or 3 overall and DE Anderson should end up at 2 or 3 depending on QB need. So, movement in the top 3 is unlikely at best.

At QB, that leaves Levis as the next guy more than likely up. Will teams fight over him? I don't see it happening. Maybe he goes around 10 and a team moves up but I just don't see anyone selling the farm for him. Richardson or McKee might also end up in round 1, but that's a fringe proposition I think.

There could be a fight over the top few WRs but last year showed teams weren't very willing to go up into the top 10 for them. I don't see a ton of skill difference between those receivers last year and this year's crop. So, you're probably competing for near equivalent slotting as anyone that might be moving up for a WR in those picks 11-14.

It actually looks to be shaping up to be similar to the 2020 draft IMO.

Fair points. For me I just think with the landscape of the NFL there are a number of teams who are desperate now for young blood at the QB position, not even accounting for how high the position is valued.

Now some of these teams got a QB last year, like the Commanders with Howell, but these guys are barely back-up grade. There's just going to be a scramble over the talent at the position. If you look at a list of teams that want a young QB with good tools its quite a large one and mostly the position is overdrafted.

There's also the knock on effect of having a good QB crop plus a guy like Will Anderson, other really elite talents will be knocked down and there's an incentive to trade up into the top 10/15 that wasn't there last year. For me that means the cost will be higher because there will be more competing to do it.

I could be wrong, obviously we're only part way into the season and a long way from the draft process really starting. At this stage though if the projected top 3 from the 2023 were in the 2022 draft they'd go 1 2 and 3 and honestly I would be surprised if 2022 no. 1 Travon Walker would not go top 5 in the 2023 draft if he were going pro next year.

[DJ's left nut]

Wharton isn't a FA yet - why would they let him walk? He's a solid interior pass-rusher. I think he's back next year. As an RFA, I don't think he'll get a ton of attention. A 2rd round tender should get the job done though honestly just an original round tender (UDFA) w/ the right of first refusal is probably all you'd need. I don't think he's gonna get some massive deal.

The rest I could get behind, though I'd like to see a little more ceiling in the WR room - I don't see Slayton or Agholar really moving the needle much. They're just another pair of fairly fungible veterans, IMO.

[Chris Meck]

well, really we need two OT's, a DE, and a WR.

Any mix of that works for me, be it FA or the Draft.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Wharton isn't a FA yet - why would they let him walk? He's a solid interior pass-rusher. I think he's back next year. As an RFA, I don't think he'll get a ton of attention. A 2rd round tender should get the job done though honestly just an original round tender (UDFA) w/ the right of first refusal is probably all you'd need. I don't think he's gonna get some massive deal.

The rest I could get behind, though I'd like to see a little more ceiling in the WR room - I don't see Slayton or Agholar really moving the needle much. They're just another pair of fairly fungible veterans, IMO.

I didn't realize I had him on the walk list. I have him tendered in the signing list. LOL.

This team can't go get 6 new faces at WR and have every single one be amazing. Sometimes fungible is all you get. Hitting on amazing needs to happen in the draft and I have them pegged for taking a shot at one in the 2nd round again.

Slayton had to finally get some snaps this week because of injuries and he torched GB for 6 for 79 and looked great doing it. Get that kid out of incompetent coaching staffs and he can be better than fungible.

[JPH83]

I agree with most of the players you'd resign and let walk kccrow. Thornhill is the most frustrating one for me. Every game he flashes and makes me think we should extend him, he follows up with a couple of games of hot garbage - missed tackles, poor coverage, the works.

Can't say I love your suggested FA pick ups. I really don't know on the draft as it's so early, but I definitely agree with going OT and WR early. I'd double up on WR and probably have a DE before DT.

[RunKC]

Yannick Ngakoue should be our target this off-season. He’ll only be 28. Would be a great get for the DL.

Darius Slayton would be a nice get too and I think he’d be relatively cheap.

[duncan_idaho]

I'd love it. If they can trade up high enough to get Duncan it would be hard to pass up.

I think they will tag and trade Orlando Brown. He doesn't fit well with what Kansas City wants to do but would be an good answer for many teams. The Titans specifically stand out. They've had a lot of problems at RT since Jack Conklin left following the 2019 season. Not sure they get the same equivalent compensation - a 2nd round pick - but I could see getting a 3rd for him.

Where is the Seattle R1 pick coming from? That part confused me, Crow.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Yannick Ngakoue should be our target this off-season. He’ll only be 28. Would be a great get for the DL.

Darius Slayton would be a nice get too and I think he’d be relatively cheap.

I like both those ideas. Fits' Veach tendencies, too.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'd love it. If they can trade up high enough to get Duncan it would be hard to pass up.

I think they will tag and trade Orlando Brown. He doesn't fit well with what Kansas City wants to do but would be an good answer for many teams. The Titans specifically stand out. They've had a lot of problems at RT since Jack Conklin left following the 2019 season. Not sure they get the same equivalent compensation - a 2nd round pick - but I could see getting a 3rd for him.

Where is the Seattle R1 pick coming from? That part confused me, Crow.

There's no reason to tag him a 2nd time, and give him all those guarantees, if you think you can get a 3rd for him. Just let him walk, free up those resources, and get a 3rd rounder anyway.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'd love it. If they can trade up high enough to get Duncan it would be hard to pass up.

I think they will tag and trade Orlando Brown. He doesn't fit well with what Kansas City wants to do but would be an good answer for many teams. The Titans specifically stand out. They've had a lot of problems at RT since Jack Conklin left following the 2019 season. Not sure they get the same equivalent compensation - a 2nd round pick - but I could see getting a 3rd for him.

Where is the Seattle R1 pick coming from? That part confused me, Crow.

Seattle is a known trade partner and they have two 1st round picks this year, their own plus Denver's from the Wilson trade.

I'd imagine they may move off of one of them and both should be relatively high picks.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Yannick Ngakoue should be our target this off-season. He’ll only be 28. Would be a great get for the DL.

Darius Slayton would be a nice get too and I think he’d be relatively cheap.

Ngakoue's looked absolute ass this year, and not much better last year. I'd honestly want no part of that.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Seattle is a known trade partner and they have two 1st round picks this year, their own plus Denver's from the Wilson trade.

I'd imagine they may move off of one of them and both should be relatively high picks.

Oh, gotcha. The way I read it I thought you were crediting KC with Seattle's pick already.

That would make sense. If you can get into the top 15, that's high enough to get a quality T, you'd think. Though Duncan's stock is climbing and he might land top 10.