[KChiefs1]

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So you’re confused by all the expansion talk that’s dominating the headlines during a time when the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup chase, the LeBron watch, and the Washington Nationals’ call up of the next Roger Clemens should be owning every inch of the sports pages.

Join the club.

From the most dialed-in insiders to the heads of the college conferences, no one, absolutely no one, has a rock-solid handle on what’s exactly about to happen with the realignment changes expected to shake the college sports world to its core. On nothing but rumors, speculation, a whole bunch of posturing, and very, very quiet negotiations, the conferences have gone into crisis, red-alert, doomsday scenario mode as collegiate athletics creeps closer and closer to the most radical and important realignment in American sports since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970.

With a Reservoir Dogs-like Mexican standoff as each conference is waiting for one of the others to make the first major move, everyone has their plan ready to go into action once the shooting starts. How important is this? Not only are jobs on the line at the highest level of college athletics, but the reputations of universities, academically as well as athletically, are at stake. If you don’t think football has anything to do with the life of a college, try getting the University of Kansas out of its panic room (more on that in a moment).

The weaker conferences don’t want to make a move until they know who’s left standing to go after (example: the Mountain West declared it’s not doing anything about expansion right now as it waits to see who’s left over from the Big 12), while the bigger conferences are being forced to play out scenarios A, B, and C before as they attempt to put their respective puzzles together.

It’s all extremely confusing, very corporate, and wildly entertaining. Keeping in mind the bazillion different scenarios and even more egos involved (with all of them changing by the hour depending on the latest rumor), here are the basics with all the main players, what’s really happening, and what it means.

1) What will realignment mean for college sports fans (both casual and die-hards)?

Unless you’re a die-hard Big 12 supporter, the changes might not matter all that much for the fans on a typical Saturday. However, the product should be even sharper as the schools that accept the invite to move on will end up making more money, which will all go to better facilities, better coaches, and a better ability to attract the top recruits. Lip service will be paid to the idea of the extra dough going into a university for academic purposes, but in reality, the upgrade will only end up making each top sports program even stronger (and then, it could be argued, will upgrade the profile of the school as a whole). On the flip side, if a school doesn’t become a part of one of the new super-power conferences, the TV and bowl money will shrivel and the budgets will make it harder for the sports teams to keep up with the big boys.

2) Why are the conferences doing this now?

To quote the Jerry Jones’ three rules for being a successful salesman: ask for the money, ask for the money, and ask for the money.

ESPN and the SEC hooked up for a billion dollar deal and CBS just renegotiated a new deal for the men’s NCAA basketball tournament worth close to $11 billion. There’s a ton of TV money out there to be made, and the conferences and the schools want it. Remember, this has little to do with sports and has everything to do with big business, TV markets and potential revenue.

It all started several months ago with talk from the Big Ten about moving up the timetable on expansion discussion, with the initial idea to go after Rutgers to expand the Big Ten Network into the New York area. Next came the Big Ten’s backchannel leak about the idea of asking Texas to join, and boom went the dynamite.

The Pac 10, realizing that expanding with Boise State, Utah, and BYU wasn’t going to cut it, quickly came up with a plan of its own involving six Big 12 teams, the Big Ten then realized it had to have its plan solidified, and the Big 12 had to circle the wagons.

Once the first deal is officially made, this could all happen as quickly as next year, but with a little bit of a trickle. According to the most likely scenarios, the Big Ten will take on Nebraska, Missouri, and Rutgers within the next two years, possibly for 2011, to expand to 14 schools while leaving the door open for Notre Dame to eventually come in a few years later as part of a 16-team conference. The Pac 10 will also likely expand to 14 schools right away (again, this is an educated guess considering the Texas politics involved) with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Colorado moving over while Texas and Texas A&M hang tight trying to decide where the best fit might be.

As far as figuring out who’s going where in the initial phase, expect most of the pieces to be in place by the end of the summer. The Big 12 has already issued an ultimatum to Nebraska and Missouri to declare their intentions sometime within the next week, so the dominoes could start to fall by early July.

3) Who are the biggest players?

At the moment, the key piece of the puzzle is Texas. Notre Dame is the big prize that everyone wants, and if athletic director Jack Swarbrick wakes up tomorrow and decides the time is right to join the Big Ten (or the SEC, or the Pac 10), it’s a done deal. But Notre Dame is a stand-alone, and no matter what the configurations of the conferences are, room will be made. Texas, on the other hand, is a political baggage nightmare that will require a lot of lobbying and a ton of negotiating.

If Texas decides that the Pac 10 is the right fit, then it’s cut and dry; the Pac 10 will take on Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Texas. However, because of the bigger reach, the better TV markets, and the time zone advantage, the Big Ten is stronger than the Pac 10. If the Big Ten believes Texas is in play for the Pac 10, then there will be recruiting battle of all recruiting battles. However, the Big Ten will then have to decide if it wants to take on Texas A&M, because there’s no way Texas will be going anywhere without the alma mater of Rick Perry, the Texas governor, riding shotgun. If Texas decides it wants to stay in the Big 12 and make a go of it, then there’s a great chance the rest of the Big 12 South schools stick around, too. It might make financial sense for Oklahoma to go to the Pac 10, but it would be a tough sell to the alumni and the fan base to blow off Texas and ruin the current ties.

And that’s where Nebraska and Missouri come in. If they decide to go to the Big Ten, Texas might not want to stick around in the weakened conference that already has a mediocre TV deal that would only get worse. That means the SEC could be interested in taking on Texas and Texas A&M if the Pac 10 and Big Ten don’t seem as attractive.