[KChiefs1]

Some positions in this league are more important and valuable than others. Are kickers valuable? They can be. How many Super Bowls do the Patriots win without Adam Vinatieri? He was a very valuable player for the Patriots franchise, but kickers are very rarely drafted in the first three rounds.

They simply don't make enough plays or are able to make an extensive difference compared to the average kicker in the league. This is why kickers don't make as much money as left tackles, quarterbacks, or defensive linemen, and why they aren't highly sought after in the draft.

Another reason kickers aren't highly coveted in the draft is because there isn't a great demand for them. Teams aren't scrambling to draft a "franchise kicker."

Two concepts make up positional value: demand and impact. I've briefed on these a bit, but we are going to do some intense analysis.

From Dictionary.com, the definition of "demand" is "The desire to possess a commodity or make use of a service, combined with the ability to purchase it."

Some positions in the NFL are hotter commodities than others. Obviously special teams personnel (punters, long snappers, kickers, returners) aren't very high on the totem pole. No teams were really scrambling to find long snappers or kickers in free agency or the draft. I will use this phrase a lot throughout NFL Draftology 205A, but they are a "dime a dozen." No team truly has these needs, and thus it has low demand. Low demand for a position means they will be less sought after on Draft Day and will be less pricey in the free-agent market.

What other positions are in low demand? I'd say the position right now in the lowest demand in this league is running back. Nearly every team has something invested in this position, or believes they have a potential star. Look around the NFL depth charts. Sure, some teams have more question marks at the position than others, but in general, this is an overloaded position in the NFL. Reason? The great talent coming out of college at this position is NFL-caliber, and there are a lot of these players in the NFL. They aren't just really good; there are a lot of them.

For our first NFL Draft analysis here, let's take a look at the 2007 NFL Draft. Why did Adrian Peterson fall to No. 7? Many point out that he had durability issues, but I disagree. It was the lack of demand for running backs in the NFL as to why he slid to the Vikings.

Oakland? They didn't need a running back having spent a lot of money on LaMont Jordan, and they needed a franchise signal caller more (Jamarcus Russell). Pass.

Detroit? They spent a first-round pick on Kevin Jones in 2004 and also traded for Tatum Bell. Calvin Johnson was simply too good to pass up, and was playing a position of greater DEMAND. Elite receivers are rare, and Johnson was quite possibly the best receiving prospect in NFL history. Pass.

Cleveland? I will get into this later discussing positional impact, but the Browns needed a left tackle more than a running back. They brought in Jamal Lewis, but didn't have anything at left tackle. Pass.

Tampa Bay? Cadillac Williams was poised to return to rookie form, Michael Pittman was solid, and Earnest Graham had potential as a backup. Nothing for this team in terms of a pass rush, so they opted for Gaines Adams. Pass.

Arizona? Spent $30 million on Edgerrin James, and they needed to protect Matt Leinart. Getting better on the line was imperative for them, just like Cleveland. They took Levi Brown to block Matt Leinart's blind side. Pass.

Washington? Clinton Portis, so no need here. A need at free safety, they took LaRon Landry. Pass.

That's how Adrian Peterson became a Viking. It really had nothing to do with his running style or injury history. Was there some risk there with taking him with those injuries? I think a little bit, but in the end it didn't matter because teams had other needs, and didn't have them at running back.

Another position I believe that is in extremely low demand right now is inside linebacker. Look around, nearly every team has a very talented starter at this position. Only teams with question marks right now are Tennessee (Ryan Fowler), Cincinnati (Dhani Jones) and Kansas City (Napoleon Harris).

What other positions are in low demand? The more obvious positions that are in low demand are center, guard, and tight end.

I would say at this point, being that we don't know who will get injured and fail next season, there are really no positions of drastic need right now in the NFL.

Seven left tackles were taken in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft (if you include Branden Albert). It will be interesting to see if they will all live up to their first-round billing, and it's something we will find out next season. The only teams with a need at left tackle right now are Oakland (Kwame Harris) and potentially Baltimore (Jared Gaither).

You are probably thinking about quarterback right now, but I'd say this is a wait-and-see approach. Will players like Tarvaris Jackson, Kellen Clemens, Brodie Croyle, Drew Stanton, Matt Moore, Matt Leinart and Alex Smith ever step up? Quarterback has a lot of potential to be a big need in the 2009 NFL Draft, especially with the best quarterback on the free-agent market being Luke McCown. I'd like to call this a wait-and-see because we just don't know for sure how many of these quarterbacks will falter or thrive.

We all know certain positions in the NFL are more valuable than others.

Take a look at the previous 12 No. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft from 1997 to 2008. Eight quarterbacks were taken, two left tackles (even though I am not sold on Jake Long at all living up to the hype) and two defensive ends.

This isn't some huge coincidence. It's very rare that tight ends, cornerbacks and inside linebackers go in the top 10. You can make a case for defensive tackles, but I believe that is simply a position where not much talent comes out of college. Glenn Dorsey was the best defensive tackle prospect since Warren Sapp in 1995. That is 13 years of the draft lacking elite talent at the position.

Guards and centers are uncommon first-round picks, and only a few are taken in the second round every year.

Now, I am in no way saying that guards, centers, corners, etc. don't make a huge impact over the course of a game. I think they are very important positions, but other positions are simply worth more in this league.

Back to the 2008 NFL Draft, and let's take a look at why the Dolphins did not seriously consider Glenn Dorsey with that pick. The players being mentioned here were Jake Long, Chris Long, and Vernon Gholston.

The reason why the Dolphins were never going to select Dorsey is because run stuffers don't make enough plays to be worthy of a No. 1 pick. They don't get after the quarterback as the nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme. You can find run stuffers in this league at a relatively cheap price, or even draft a great fit at nose tackle such as Athyba Rubin out of Iowa State in the late rounds, and he can still have a very similar impact to Dorsey at that position. There is only so much a nose tackle can do.

They occupy blockers and plug the run. That's pretty much it.

So which positions do you spend high draft picks on? What positions make the most valuable impact in this league?

The three most valuable positions in this league are quarterback, left tackle and 4-3 right defensive end or 3-4 outside rush linebacker (which I classify as the same position, since it's the pass rusher coming off the edge varying to scheme). I bring up the point about the past 12 No. 1 picks. They all fall under these three positions (no 3-4 OLBs taken, but I still find it extremely valuable for those 3-4 teams).

Obviously, we see other positions go very high in the draft too, and like I said before, I'm not saying only these positions are valuable. Calvin Johnson and Braylon Edwards were taken No. 2 overall in their respected drafts, but they went that high because their value demanded it. They were better than any other player on the board at that time, or quite possibly even the best players in their draft despite being second fiddle to the No. 1 pick.

This is the same for Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow, both of whom were taken at No. 6 overall. I don't believe tight ends should go that high, but their perceived talent commanded they go over other players that played more impactful positions (such as quarterback, tackles, or linebackers that make many more plays over the course of a football game).

Now let's take a look at analyzing some draft picks in the past, why those decisions were made, and what can we learn from them.

Exhibit A: Browns select Joe Thomas over Adrian Peterson

The Browns didn't think Adrian Peterson wasn't a phenomenal talent. Anyone with half a brain knew he was going to be very special in the NFL, but how special would Peterson have been in Cleveland if he didn't have a line to block for him and had a quarterback who wasn't protected? If Peterson was the pick, then the Browns can say bye-bye to a passing game for a very long time. Left tackles like Joe Thomas are very rare to acquire. He was an outstanding athlete and a monster in pass protection, and had defining leadership to boot. If Cleveland passed on him, then their offense is at a major risk. Their quarterback's blind side is not going to be protected. With Thomas playing left tackle, the quarterback (little did we know it was going to be Derek Anderson) can feel more comfortable in the pocket and make more plays in the passing game, which in turn opens up the running game. Now that the running game is effective, the play action becomes deadly, and this is exactly what happened for the Browns in 2007.

If Peterson is the pick, the Browns have an elite rusher. They have a player who maximizes the yardage of the play and is a huge scoring threat, but what they don't have is everything I just mentioned. Maybe their quarterback gets seriously hurt because the left tackle isn't doing his job. The quarterback would get very rattled in the pocket because he doesn't have confidence to get a play off without getting hit. Peterson wouldn't be able to reach his full potential because his line wouldn't have been up to snuff on the left side.

Browns fans know what I'm talking about; they saw it first hand with the Tim Couch era. Cleveland didn't want to re-live that, so they made what was, in my opinion, one of the best picks in the 2007 NFL Draft. It's a pick we look back now on and say "It was an easy pick because obviously Joe Thomas was a great player since he emerged as one of the top left tackles in his rookie year." Hindsight is always going to be 20/20. Thomas had issues with not having great bulk or being an elite run-blocker, and it's hard to pass up on a player like Peterson or the fan favorite in Brady Quinn. This pick did take some balls and there was much more to it than meets the eye… that's the draft in a nutshell.

Exhibit B: Texans shock the world and take Mario Williams No. 1

When Mario Williams was inked the night before the draft, 95 percent of the people and experts hated the pick. "How could they pass up on Reggie Bush AND Vince Young? They need a running back AND a quarterback!"

I loved the pick made by Charlie Casserly and defended it even going into the 2007 season. I'm sorry, but if you think Bush or Young should have gone No. 1, then you never watched Mario Williams play. How many people at Radio City Music Hall saw N.C. State games? They saw plenty of Bush and Young on SportsCenter, and decided to boo the No. 1 pick.

The biggest reason why Casserly pulled the trigger on Mario, was simply because he was the best player in the draft, and I totally agreed with that. He was a 6-7, 285-pound monstrous pass rusher and an elite athlete. He had begun to turn the corner and looked like he was going to have a bright future in the NFL, but on the other hand Vince Young did win the championship game and Reggie Bush was dubbed as the next Gale Sayers.

Not only was Mario regarded by the Texans as the No. 1 player on their big board, but he also played the position of greatest impact.

You don't draft a running back No. 1 overall, especially in a zone-blocking scheme where effective runners can be found later in the draft. Bush had issues with carrying the load at USC, and he wasn't very comfortable between the tackles. Still, even I have to admit I thought he would be a star in the league.

Why not hometown hero Vince Young? The Texans did need a quarterback; David Carr up to this point was an obvious bust. Well, you don't take a quarterback this high who doesn't have much of an offensive line or supporting cast. The only player who was talented on this offense was Andre Johnson. Young wasn't going to get much help, and he also had a lot of bust factors (mechanics, football IQ, intelligence, West Coast offensive fit, etc.).

When it comes down to it, defense does win championships, and if the Texans were ever going to win, then they needed a player who could scare a quarterback and wreak havoc. That player was Mario Williams.

Williams was taken because he would have made the most impact for the Houston Texans and helped their team in the long run more than Vince Young or Reggie Bush. So far, so good.

Most overrated: Quarterback

You can't escape it. Nearly every single football fan in the universe has an extreme bias toward offense, and an extreme intrigue with the quarterback position. That doesn't exclude general managers or coaches either.

New regimes love to draft "their guy." Take a look at 2008 where Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Chad Henne were taken by new staffs. In 2007, Lane Kiffin made his mark with JaMarcus Russell as the No. 1 pick. We all know what Cam Cameron did with John Beck in the second round passing up on Brady Quinn. Eric Mangini took Kellen Clemens in his first draft in the second round. Mike Nolan selected Alex Smith No. 1 in 2005, and Mike McCarthy grabbed Aaron Rodgers in his first-round free-fall.

Is quarterback very important? It's extremely important, but it is pretty hit-and-miss. I feel like teams panic to find a "franchise quarterback" and feel forced to draft one. Everyone thinks a "franchise quarterback" is going to take their team to the Promised Land.

Has Carson Palmer been to the Promised Land yet? He's a phenomenal talent and was absolutely the best player in the entire 2003 NFL Draft, but it doesn't guarantee anything. People associate "franchise quarterback" and winning. When you think of "franchise quarterback," that means a high pick usually has to be invested. I don't believe in this. I believe that you draft the best quarterback for your offensive system. If that means you take a second-tier quarterback in the fourth round, but he best fits your system, then you do exactly that. Who cares if he isn't viewed as a "franchise quarterback?" David Garrard wasn't drafted in the first round, and he's Jacksonville's main man. Tom Brady became a franchise quarterback pretty quickly. Matt Hasselbeck was a sixth-round pick.

Fans love to have a "franchise quarterback." Has Jay Cutler been to the playoffs yet? What about Matt Leinart? We can all name the bust quarterbacks over the years, and it's a pretty long list.

I can then look on the other side and say Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger, but it took much more than quarterbacking for these three players to win a Super Bowl. They needed defense, protection and weapons.

My philosophy is you take the best player for your team, and too often I think teams get in quarterback mode. If the best player for your team is a quarterback (like Palmer to the Bengals in 2003) then you should pull the trigger. I'm just saying there is a huge bias that the best player for your team is always a franchise quarterback.

Most underrated: Three technique

Many of you are asking, "What's a three technique?" Warren Sapp is the greatest three technique to ever live. He played under tackle in the Buccaneers' Tampa 2, one-gap scheme, and this allowed him to get up the field to the quarterback.

Tommie Harris is currently the best three technique in the NFL. Kevin Williams is a close second. Amobi Okoye is destined to be a star in Houston. Now, not every team runs a one-gap scheme in a 4-3 defense, but the value of this position was ignored greatly on Draft Day.

Three technique, or under tackle, plays a huge role in a game for a defense. The position is about getting into the backfield and making plays in the trenches. It's about getting pressure on the quarterback and tackling the running back before he hits the line of scrimmage to slow him down. This cannot be understated.

There aren't many great three techs in this league. Glenn Dorsey (though he is starting out at nose tackle, but has ability to play under tackle) and Sedrick Ellis are already considered to be two of the best at this position. Why is this? Not enough of these talented players are coming out of college. It's a very rare position to find elite talent.

When the iron is hot for three techs, it should be struck, but that's not what happened in the 2008 NFL Draft. Atlanta opted for its "franchise quarterback" in Matt Ryan over Dorsey.

Atlanta could have drafted Brian Brohm in the second round. Defense wins championships. Ryan is the face of the franchise now… who was the face of the franchise for Tampa Bay? Warren Sapp. I'd say that worked out pretty well. Faces of the franchise don't win games. Glenn Dorsey was a once-in-a-decade type talent at his position. We see a great quarterback in the draft nearly every year.

You should now understand which positions I believe are the most impactful in the NFL, and how it greatly affects the draft. Remember, just because you are a left tackle, that doesn't necessarily mean you have more value than an elite wide receiver or cornerback, but you have a greater degree of impact. Now, on to my most important issue:

The 2009 Draft and beyond…


Look for running backs to fall lower in the draft than their talent level indicates, especially after possibly the deepest running back class ever in 2008. Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells are elite talents, but I wouldn't be shocked if they fell out of the top eight or 10 picks next year.

With what looks like a really strong left tackle class (much more so than 2008), teams will not let these players fall in the 2009 NFL Draft. Don't be shocked to see three left tackles go in the top 10.

The emergence of cornerback as a position that becomes high value. Not many teams have elite corners, and they are very tough to find in the draft. Five corners were taken in the first round of 2008, and with a lot of teams loading up on left tackles, quarterbacks, linebackers, etc. I expect some position to gain more value.

Don't expect the quarterback frenzy to ever stop on Draft Day. The media and fans love quarterbacks. I truly believe the media does affect the draft to an extent. Certain players get talked down, and some get hyped up. I think it gets in the minds of scouts and coaches a bit. People are always going to be talking "franchise quarterbacks." The "franchise quarterback" will always be the perceived savior to a team not reaching its potential.