Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
This has been the response by 99% of this board despite the fact that the entire population of players with this injury was compiled to show the risk. I shared it with everyone, and yet the general response remains the same. It's not people overplaying the risk, it is the risk. It's not a representative sample of some segment of players with this injury, it is the entire population. It's like, you can't really refute it. It is it.
The reality of the situation is that we have no idea if this pick is going to work out, and the Chiefs cannot say with any certainty that it will. In Burkholder's opinion, the injury looks as good as it could. That doesn't change 25 years of proof that even the best cases seldom result in a player returning to form. It's okay to be optimistic, but it's another thing to turn a blind eye to reality. Could he return 100% to pre-injury form? Yes. Could it turn out to be a good pick? Yes. We have to hope an incredibly rare thing happens.
You can be optimistic and look at about 60% of all players return to football, but then, when you look at returning to play as many games as they did pre-injury, that number drops to 29%. You look at returning to some metric of prior performance, that number drops to 24%. That's all players, and not all players have to generate power like offensive linemen. Those stats are much more grim. You start looking at 35% return to play and 6% return to play as many games, and return to prior performance. That means the risk is incredibly high. It's not zero, but if you're looking at 30/70 as your most likely best-case odds and 6/94 as reality, it's also a long way from 50/50, much less 80/20 or 90/10 like the populace here seems to think it is.
The stats are there to formulate an educated opinion. It's the reason Burkholder wasn't too keen on it at the onset. Burkholder might feel like Simmons can beat the odds. And hey, we have to hope he does, but I'd say don't tell people that they are overplaying the risk. If anything, most are downplaying the risk.
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Problem is you are adding in everyone with similar injury.
In this case we aren't getting a random player with the injury but with someone we got to peek into the box with.
I am not saying there is no risk but that the 75% are never the same is Doomer projections.
I don't think the Chiefs draft him if they thought his chance was less than 50% there.
How much higher is it?
Unknown.