[duncan_idaho]

Thanks, OP. I'm just a big old nerd with too much time on his hands and a brain that doesn't stop until I'm asleep.

Here's my thoughts on grade:

Present: B+.
I actually really like everything the Chiefs did in this draft, aside from the amount of risk they took on in Round 1. Royals and Smith are excellent fits and should help add some explosion back to the offense. Williams and Bassa and Gillotte are all immediate nice depth pieces, and possible future starters. Anudike-Uzomah doesn't take a step? Fine. Flush him and slide in Gillotte as your cheap partner for Karlaftis on his second deal. Tranquill sucks ass again in coverage? Bassa offers an alternative. Watson gets hurt, Fulton gets hurt, Josh Williams continues to make the staff not trust him? Hello, Nohl. Norman-Lott is probably never a starter, but you can see the value of the player.

So why is it a B+ if I love that all so much? It's Josh Simmons.

I'll reference the Barney Stinson crazy-hot X-Y axis theorem. We'll call it the Duncan Idaho Draft Nerd Risk-Reward X-Y axis. Theory goes, a potential partner must be as hot as they are crazy. If they are crazier than they are hot, you should stay away. For me, Simmons' potential reward factor IS significant. Like, a 9 on a scale of 10. The problem is that I see the risk factor as a true 10/10. The risk is as bad as it can get. I will acknowledge that some might disagree and see the reward factor as higher, or the risk factor as lower (though I think you're layering on an awful lot of hope in that case). But for me, this pick by itself is a D. Maybe a D+ if I inflate my grades a bit.

Simmons - D+ (which, if the team is right, morphs into an A+)
Norman-Lott - B
Gillotte - B+
Williams - A
Royals - A+
Bassa - B+
Smith - A+

Potential: A+.
Because if Simmons is healthy, he's going to be an above-average LT.