Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooter Bailey
I think Veach may do just that. If he does I will scurry to this board to watch the too deep thinkers cry and moan.
|
I won't have much to say, really.
I think it's a mistake.
I'll hope that it isn't. Or more accurately, I'll hope its a poor process that yields positive results.
Even the worst of mad hackers will occasionally get a fastball that they just happen to run into. They may have a .180 BA with twice as many strikeouts as hits, but they will hammer that one ball into the sun because one time, despite the same bad approach, the pitcher threw the ball into the bat.
Taking Simmons is bad approach. It ignores literally every datapoint. It might still work out. The odds are horrifying, but non-zero.
If you told me there was a 1% chance that I'd get die in a car wreck tonight if I took my normal route home from work, I'd take a different route. Not because that 1% is all that concerning, but because it's still 1%. It's high enough above zero to be worth legitimate consideration.
Now if you tell me that the only way to avoid that 1% is to get home via California, I'd not do it. I'd take my chances on the 1%.
But here, there's nothing lost to me by hoping that the 5-10% chance that he works out comes to fruition. So I'll do that.
But I'll still think it was the wrong decision.