Quote:
Originally Posted by Semichief
Could be the opposite. The reason they can take a swing on Simmons and not rush him back is because they have a starting LT already. We could redshirt him this year to allow his knee to fully heal. It would be a dream come true to have a bookend LT ready to go on a rookie contract in 2026.
I won’t say I’m torn on Simmons - I actively don’t want him because the injury history on players with patella tears shows that basically 1 in 5 players makes it back to something similar to what they were before. Has the surgery improved in some way? Was his tear partial? Do the Chiefs feel good about their evals? If the answer to all of them is yes, Simmons is a steal at 31. We often talk about elite tackle prospects not being available where we pick. It’s possible that he be the first of his caliber to show up there. Last year, we’d have tacked the 6th or 7th OT but they were all gone even after trading up.
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Let's be really generous here. I'll borrow your math and then goose it a bit.
As a rule, 1st round picks become starters about 1/2 the time. Let's go ahead and kick that up a bit for the sake of argument to 2/3 and give it 66%.
Now let's take your 1/5 get back to form and goose THAT to 1/4. Shit, let's make it 1/3 to make it sporting.
In that event, the combined probability of Simmons A) being a genuine starting caliber player prior to injury and B) getting BACK to that level is going to be about 22%.
So you have a 1 in 5 chance at that point even when pushing the sliders in Simmons favor. You know what that is? A 4th rounder -- maybe.
I mean there's no way to rationally look at this that makes sense. I mean even if you get stupid with the math and say "Okay, a healthy Simmons had a 75% chance of being a starting caliber LT and Patella injuries have about a 50% return rate" that's going to give you about a 37% shot at the guy being a starter. It's a blatant falsehood and it's STILL about the kind of success rate you'd expect from a mid to late 2nd.
I just do not like Simmons as a first rounder even a little bit. It ignores....everything.
Hope ain't a plan, fellas.
And Hope is all that people are doing when it comes to Josh Simmons.