Salvy's numbers are atrocious, but could you just be unlucky so far? Kings of Kauffman did a write up of the 3 unluckiest Royals hitters. Number 1 was Salvy, 2 was India, 3 was Bobby.
https://kingsofkauffman.com/the-3-un...s-01jrpk7ntyce
The 3 unluckiest KC Royals batters through the season's first 15 games
These KC Royals bats are better than their numbers show - luck just isn't on their side.
By
Jacob Milham
The Kansas City Royals can’t catch a break on their first true road trip of the season. Between missed plays in the field and an overall underperforming lineup, the Royals are now below .500 once again and languishing in the AL Central race. Royals fans are right to search for answers, and a good place to start is in the batting department.
Thanks to the advent of Statcast, fans have access to more advanced metrics, processes, and probabilities than they once did. Instead of relying on the back of the baseball card numbers, fans can look at exit velocity, chase rate, or bat speed for hope or doubt regarding a batter. One stat that rolls several batted ball metrics together is Weighted On-base Average, otherwise known as wOBA. That metric still relies on outcomes rather than looking at what a player's performance should be based upon their performance. That is where the Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) comes into play.
Expected Weighted On-base Average, or xwOBA, is a Statcast stat that estimates a player's on-base performance based on the quality of their contact—things like exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed on weakly hit balls. Instead of being influenced by defense, luck, or ballpark quirks, xwOBA focuses purely on what the hitter can control. It assigns each batted ball a probability of being a single, double, triple, or home run based on how similar batted balls have performed since 2015.
xwOBA works just like wOBA in how it values walks, hits, and extra-base hits—but instead of using the actual outcomes, it uses expected outcomes. That makes it a better reflection of a player's true talent level—whether you're evaluating a hitter's bat or a pitcher's ability to limit quality contact. So if a player has a much higher xwOBA than their real-world wOBA, like Nick Loftin or Maikel Garcia in 2024, it’s a sign they may be hitting better than their box score suggests.
The KC Royals, as a whole, are unlucky to start the season according to xwOBA.
The Royals' scoring efforts the past week have felt absolutely anemic. While the average runs scored per game per team this year hovers around four runs per game, Kansas City has struggled to match or surpass that. A lack of run support has left many strong pitching starts out to dry, and are a big reason Kansas City is under .500 right now rather than leading the division.
Fans can find some minor solace in knowing baseball is one of those sports that finds a way to balance itself out across the 162-game season. The league right now, as a whole, have been underperforming the expected metrics. MLB's xwOBA, as of Apr. 13, stands at .326, while the wOBA is at .310, a -0.016 difference. Both Kansas City's .269 wOBA and .301 xwOBA rank near the bottom of the league, but the -0.032 difference between the two is the fourth-biggest negative disparity in MLB and second-largest in the AL.
Even if Kansas City were hitting their expected mark, the lineup would be better but still below league average. It doesn't help that the most unlucky hitters in Kansas City's lineup reside in the top third.
Salvador Perez: -0.117 xwOBA difference
It looked like Kansas City's captain defied Father Time in 2024, but the initial slash line resembles his dreadful 2023 performance more than last season. His .211/.262/.298 line and .254 wOBA would all be career-worst marks if the season ended today, marred with a significant decline in power at the plate.
If there is any silver lining in all this, the veteran catcher should be performing much better. His .371 xwOBA is his best mark since his historic 2021 season and tied for the second-highest in his career. That massive negative difference not only leads the Royals by a wide margin but is the third-largest in all of baseball. Only Chicago White Sox's Andrew Vaughn's -0.167 difference leads Salvy in the AL field.
Jonathan India: -0.050 xwOBA difference
The new Royals leadoff man had a hot start in Kansas City but has cooled off much like his peers in the dugout. India has reached safely in 21 of his 63 plate appearances so far, still giving Kansas City an on-base boost at the top of the lineup. However, he could have done much better at setting the table if he had met his expected stats. His .336 xwOBA still leaves much room for improvement, but is leaps and bounds better than his current .286 wOBA.
Bobby Witt Jr.: -0.048 xwOBA difference
While Kansas City has notably struggled at the plate, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has turned things around in recent games. Whether it be drawing multiple walks against the Guardians or his AL-leading six doubles on the young season, Witt is still living up to his lofty preseason expectations. The scary thing is his .423 xwOBA shows he could be doing even better than his 2024 performance. The shortstop's speed certainly helps his expected numbers, but a 4.3% jump in walk rate from 2024 to 2025 is really helping his ceiling this season."