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Originally Posted by kcbubb
Agree to disagree. I trust the medical evaluation that the chiefs have in place. And pace is not a fair comp. Pace was the number overall pick in 1997 and a HOF player. Just in terms of value and projection (not a ceiling or floor analysis), Simmons probably does compare to Paris Johnson who was the 6th overall pick in 2023. I’m hoping that Simmons will be more successful than Paris but the point I’m making is the value. What would it cost to move from 31 to 6? I’m guessing three 1st round picks if not more. So, the point is getting a CHANCE at a long term LT like Simmons or Paris would cost us three 1st round picks. The payoff for hitting on a 1st round LT at the back of the first on a cheap 5 year contract is like winning the lottery. The reward is huge on the risk/reward analysis.
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Sure, the reward is big. The risk is higher.
Yes, they can evaluate the knee now and see if it's sound, examine the scans, see what things are looking like inside the knee, and things like that.
But they can't evaluate from workouts in shorts and t-shirts ... how much of his former level of ability and explosiveness has been regained. And the history on this is TERRIBLE. Historical and recent.
Jack Conklin tore his patellar tendon in 2021 and (1) hasn't been the same since, even after being cleared medically (2) has had a bunch of other lower-body injuries. Niang had this injury and hasn't ever looked remotely like the guy he was before it.
The outlook sucks.
If the Chiefs take him, I'll hold my breath and cross my fingers and hope it works out. But I sure as shit don't think it's a slam dunk, Einstein move. And I wouldn't take the risk.