Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
When the return is a 3rd day pick (or moving down too far to still control your own destiny) then yes, it is.
I wouldn't give up the 5th year option for any 1st rounder for a mere 5th round pick. Look at how much more complicated it would've made things with McDuffie and/or Karlaftis to not have that in our pocket to use if necessary.
Or how beneficial it could've been in a Chris Jones negotiation.
The option isn't any sort of given, no. But it's a card you have and that has value. That value is greater than a 5th rounder and if you're going to try to start getting 3rd or better, you're moving down a dozen spots or more.
On the trade value charts there is no distinction between moving from 32 to 33 vs. moving from 33 to 34. In fact you gain MORE value moving from 33 to 34 than you do 32 to 33. There's literally zero value placed on the 5th year option in that equation. So from that perspective, your very premise is flawed.
To move down enough to still be confident one of 'your guys' will be there means you aren't moving any lower than about 36 from 31. That nets you about the value of a 5th round pick. That's simply not worth the risk, either in terms of the player you could still get at 36 vs. 31 OR in terms of the potential value lost by moving out of the 1st round.
It's just not a good idea. Everyone falls in love with the idea every season when in reality the answer should be to move up -- just as we did to get Worthy when the board was starting to thin out. The teams that move out of the round usually don't get much for their trouble.
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You're putting too much stock in the draft chart. It's only a guideline. The differential in talent between one pick and the next is the true determinant in what will be offered in any trade. Each team will have a different assessment as to how much the pick at #31 would be worth and some will offer more than others while some wouldn't be interested at all. Furthermore, if anyone approached the Chiefs to make that trade, they'd almost certainly need to offer a premium to make the trade.
The 5th year option has value. I couldn't say exactly how much value and I doubt anyone could quantify it in a meaningful way, but I know that picks have a pretty clear value in and of themselves.
The question I answered when this part of the discussion started was what I would do if several players were available at #31 that I'd be more than happy to have and I stand by my answer. I'd field offers to trade down. I don't understand how anyone could disagree with that notion. It does not imply that I would take one of the offers, it merely says that I'd be looking to see if any were worth it. We might disagree on whether any particular offer was worth it, but entertaining offers to trade costs nothing and I think we'd be stupid not to entertain any offers.