Quote:
Originally Posted by GabyKeepsMeWarm
Not a pitcher, but Mike Trout would like to have a word….
And I could list dozens of pitchers from “bad weather” places that worked out.
Say what you want about Mozzicato, but you know as much as the rest of us. We’ve already got that one who sucks the penis KCC shitting on every thread with his knowledge, for the love of Christ, please don’t be that guy here.
And most of the 2021 draft was poop.
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I'm talking about HS pitchers. Which are the lowest hit-rate draft asset to chase, to begin with. When you start delving into guys who are "Projectable" (where you're projecting velocity adds as they mature and develop into men), the rate drops again. And it drops even lower when they're bad-weather state arms.
Mozzicato, at the time of his draft selection, was viewed as a late first/comp round/second round pick value. He had a good feel for spin and had been clocked into the low 90s, but usually sat 88-90.
The Royals took him because they clearly believed he'd add some good weight and increase his velocity.
That hasn't happened at all. He's stalled out at A+. Yes, still time for him to move forward, but the velocity has never jumped consistently. He's still sitting 87-90 for the most part.
Ben Kudrna has come along a little more than Mozzicato, but he also was already throwing quite a bit harder as a high school guy.
The hit rate on high school pitchers from bad-weather states (and short baseball seasons) is the worst you're going to find in a prospect bucket. Yes, there are exceptions. I think a guy KC drafted last year, David Shields, might be one of those (he also was only 17 when drafted and already sitting 92-94). But the risk is so high, KC should just NOT be using its 1st round pick on these types of pitchers.
You want to dabble with some guys in round 2-3? Go right ahead.
And I'm not shitting on the thread. I'm sharing my take on a guy (which IS informed by more than just reading stat lines, BTW). I haven't seen him in person yet because he hasn't made it to Northwest Arkansas or Omaha yet.
KC wasn't connected to Mozzicato at all prior to that pick. They were connected to Kumar Rocker, Brady House, Sal Frelick, and Matt McClain, though. And every single one of those guys would have been a much, much better pick.
Rocker had some injury concerns and signiability issues. But House and Frelick would have been very KC-like picks. McClain, too.
It's not as bad as Dayton Moore and staff (but mostly Dayton, I recently was told) put the kaibosh on drafting Chris Sale because "he's vulgar, and we already have great LHP depth, and we need a SS in the system" and taking Christian Colon instead, but it isn't good, either.