Quote:
Originally Posted by RedinTexas
Yes, but there is a discount to any pick that is in the future. For example:
The #16 pick is valued at 1000 points in the chart I'm looking at. Let's say that the Chiefs are being offered a trade that would include the team's 1st round pick in next years draft. If we consult the chart, it says that middle of the 1st round would be approximately 1000 points. However, taking compensation in the trade that is not realized until next year's draft means that the pick is not worth 1000 points to the Chiefs. It is worth less, but how much less?
Furthermore, there is inherent risk in making such a deal because the trading partner might have a really good season which would make the pick somewhat worse. Additionally, whatever expectations we have for the level of talent in next year's draft might worsen in the interim and make the value of that pick somewhat worse than what we currently expect. There are risks involved in taking deferred compensation.
How much do we discount that future pick due to the fact that we won't realize it until next year?
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As I said, the future 1 is worth pick #48 or 420 points. It has nothing to do with the current pick.
Sometimes teams will discount them a full round, so if a team picks at #24, the value of a future 1 is #56 instead of #48.
Going in reverse, any trade of a current pick for a future pick is generally valued 1 round higher. So if a team wants my 3rd rounder this year, they have to pony up a 2nd rounder next year.
There isn't really a % discount you can apply because the higher a team picks in the draft the less value a future 1 actually has for them on a percentage basis than a team picking later in the draft.
Let's say a team is picking #10 and a team is willing to discount a full round, that means a future 1 from that team is worth pick #42. That's a 65% discount. If a team is picking #30 and we discount a full round, then that's #62. That equates to a 54% discount.
It's all less than an exact science. Teams use different value boards and different GMs make different value considerations, especially after round 4.
When the Chiefs traded up for Mahomes, using a future value of the middle of the next round, KC would have been over on points on the Rich Hill model and under on the Jimmy Johnson model. Had they used a future value of discounting by exactly 1 round, they would have been under on both charts.