Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
Usually in the middle of the next round but it's not an exact science. So a 1st next year is equivalent to pick #48, 2nd worth pick #80, etc.
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Yes, but there is a discount to any pick that is in the future. For example:
The #16 pick is valued at 1000 points in the chart I'm looking at. Let's say that the Chiefs are being offered a trade that would include the team's 1st round pick in next years draft. If we consult the chart, it says that middle of the 1st round would be approximately 1000 points. However, taking compensation in the trade that is not realized until next year's draft means that the pick is not worth 1000 points to the Chiefs. It is worth less, but how much less?
Furthermore, there is inherent risk in making such a deal because the trading partner might have a really good season which would make the pick somewhat worse. Additionally, whatever expectations we have for the level of talent in next year's draft might worsen in the interim and make the value of that pick somewhat worse than what we currently expect. There are risks involved in taking deferred compensation.
How much do we discount that future pick due to the fact that we won't realize it until next year?