Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
It just feels like awfully spotty roster and resource management.
I don't like to look at anything over a 1 year timeline (though I get it with Jones/Mahomes).
And over a 2-3 year timeline, hammering the DL this draft, focusing on LT in FA and then if necessary approaching the LT position in a better LT year is going to better situate us.
A concern I have with the overarching roster construction is that the 2023 and 2024 drafts may end up being little more than Rice and Worthy over a meaningful timeline. What that will do is FORCE us into the FA marketplace.
Now you can probably be fine with a 2 year period of relatively average returns on your draft and be okay. But if you have 3, you're going to start to see some frayed edges on the roster and you're going to have to be more aggressive in FA. And by its very nature, you're going to overspend doing it.
I think it's really important that we get this draft right. Not just for the players we'd add, but because 3 years of merely average returns from the draft will end up forcing us to make risker decisions in FA that may have really gnarly long-term consequences for us. Because if it's not FA where you decide to do that, it's going to be through re-stocking additional draft capital and that could end up being by trading Karlaftis (I don't see any way we trade McDuffie).
We'd start to have to weigh a fair bit of spooky shit.
I think easily the best path to 'getting this draft right' is attacking the DL -- very possibly in rounds 1 AND 2. Then maybe you see if there's a trade down at the top of 3 that can get you a little more capital in the 4th and/or through the 5th-6th rounds where we don't have anything.
Then again, maybe Hicks takes a step forward, Wiley proves a starting TE and Kingsley/Nourzad end up our starting guards going forward and everything I said is largely rendered moot.
But I'd rather let the draft come to us. The best, most sustainable teams in the league typically make their bones doing exactly that.
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There IS a cost threshold on trading up for a LT but nobody is convincing me this class is considerably worse than any normal class. 2024 was abnormal for OL much like 2025 is abnormal for DL and I fear recency bias.
These are normal...
2023
#06 LT Paris Johnson Jr, Ohio State (played 2023 at RT, then 2024 at LT)
#10 RT Darnell Wright, Tennessee (2023 and 2024 at RT)
#11 LT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (2023 and 2024 at LG)
#14 RT Broderick Jones, Georgia (2023 and 2024 at RT, plan to move to LT in 2025)
#27 LT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (2023 and 2024 at RT)
2022:
#06 LT Ikem Ekwonu, N.C. State
#07 RT Evan Neal, Alabama
#09 LT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
#19 LT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
#24 LT Tyler Smith, Tulsa
2021
#07 LT Penei Sewell, Oregon
#13 LT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
#17 RT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
#23 LT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
2020
#04 LT Andrew Thomas, Georgia
#10 LT Jedrick Wills, Alabama
#11 OT Mekhi Becton, Louisville
#13 LT Tristan Wirfs, Iowa
#18 LT Austin Jackson, USC
#29 RT Isaiah Wilson, Georgia
This year's projections from Brugler are
#06 LT Will Campbell, LSU
#08 RT Armand Membou, Missouri
#17 LT Josh Simmons, Ohio State
#22 LT Kelvin Banks Jr, Texas
#31 LT Josh Conerly Jr, Oregon
#34 LT Donovan Jackson, Ohio State
There's some variations on where on pretty much all of those guys but it definitely has the look and feel of several of these recent drafts. It could mirror 2023 or 2020 rather closely.
If I'm projecting:
#04 NE - LT Will Campbell
#09 NYJ - RT Armand Membou
#10 CHI - LT Josh Simmons
#18 SEA - LT Kelvin Banks Jr (move him to OG, safety valve RT)
#26 LAR - LT Josh Conerly Jr
#27 BAL - LT/G Donovan Jackson, Ohio State
This is why I think a pick-flop with MIN might be on the table for Conerly. Give them 63 for 97 in a move from 31 to 24. I'm not talking about throwing a bunch of picks away and moving to 10. You still have 66, 95, and 97 that way.
That's if you can't get Alaric Jackson in FA. You probably pivot to re-signing Humphries or picking up a Jaylon Moore but you can't rely on that.