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Originally Posted by A8bil
First Solar is at 14 PE, but that is in a major contraction phase due to solar glut--it will recover, at least that's what Blackrock is betting on.
Waymo is a taxi company that just sells rides. They don't make the cars, they don't sell the tech. Tesla will do both, and will sell/lease the tech to other manufacturers.
Smart robotics is a multi-trillion dollar industry that has yet to be tapped, and no one is close to Tesla in bringing that tech -- both software and hardware -- to market.
Conglomerates re-emerged in the past few decades. In fact, GE recently broke up, repeating the 80s- 90s. Honeywell just suggested it will. It's PE is 24, but those are two mature conglomerates, not early growth like Tesla. Any attempt to compare conglomerates to Tesla is a flawed approach.
It won't take a lot of growth to justify the PE, but yes, its investors are betting on the come. There's little betting on the come with insurers, retail gas, taxi service, etc. which makes your comparisons not relevant and your skepticism not entirely justified....just partially.
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IMO the revenue is a hell if a long way from the books. And historically first to market rarely ends up in market leadership after the technology hits mainstream. The market seemed to love assuming putting a tech company sheen on an industry “disruptor” would equate to returns like a tech company. Simple truth is manufacturing can’t scale as cheaply as software.
I’m no hater. But I’m not buying. I’m also not shorting. I’m also not avoiding it in ETFs.
It’s pretty difficult for me to see the path to achieving the returns that will be required to support the valuation.