Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe
It's not as simple as "don't trade up". If we had a down season and we're picking 19th, by all means, trade up.
We are picking 31st. It would take a boatload of picks to go get "that guy" more than we gave up to get Mahomes. That's just not a luxury a team in this position can afford.
|
Pretty sure our 1st, 3rd, and 2026 1st could get us to around 15. I know you'll say that picking players around 15 isn't really any different than players taken late in the 1st, but just hear me out. I have no clue who they like yet or what their grades will be on specific players, but let's say they like Conerly and/or Ersery and see them as a long term solution but that they will also need some development time this season. You wouldn't do that? That's not "more than we gave up to get Mahomes".
I think this claim that draft picks taken at OT outside of the top 10 are no different than those taken late 1st or the 2nd is disengenuous. You probably could make the claim that WRs taken late 1st are not much better than those taken in the 2nd/3rd round, but that didn't stop KC from trading up for someone like Worthy. KC clearly liked Worthy and they went and got him, end of story. Will he end up being significantly better or even better at all than McConkey? Maybe not, but they found their guy and made the move. Why would they not take that same stance at LT if they identify a specific player that is the most likely to succeed here and provide a solution for our line problems?
Doing a bit of analysis where starting left tackles come from, yes they absolutely generally come from the top 10 for the most part. You have a handful of decent looking tackles that have been taken outside of the top 10 like Tristan Wirfs, Kolton Miller, Garrett Bolles, Taylor Decker, and Christian Darrisaw. I'm guessing Mims in Cincy may eventually join that list. DJ Humphries was a good left tackle for a while (when healthy), he was taken 24th.
Starting left tackles taken outside the 1st include Dawkins, Mailata, Armstead, Raimann, Walker, Coleman, and Little.
So outside of taking a left tackle top 10 where they are the most likely to be a sure thing, the highest concentration of starting left tackles in a particular part of the draft is those taken from around the 13-25 range of rd 1. Then you have a handful of decent or promising left tackles taken in the 2nd/3rd or the 7th. There don't really appear to be much in the way of left tackles taken currently in the 4-6 rd range.
So again, I would argue that a tackle taken in the 13-25 range of the 1st rd absolutely does have a higher chance of developing than someone in the 2nd-3rd rd.