[Ocotillo]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

FanGraphs crowd source, which I have zero idea on accuracy, has him getting $45 for 3 years.

He's the best option left unless a trade is coming. I really want to improve the outfield.

That's what Baseball Trade Rumors had him going for, too.

16. Jurickson Profar: Three years, $45MM

Tim: Padres / Anthony: Royals / Darragh: Padres / Steve: Padres

Profar finally turned in the kind of season that most evaluators anticipated a decade ago. The sport’s #1 prospect when he reached the majors with the Rangers in 2012, Profar has had a frustratingly inconsistent career. Throwing woes pushed him from second base to left field. That put more pressure on his bat, which has bounced from decent to poor over the years.

Things hit a new low in 2023. Profar signed with the Rockies for $7.75MM. He had a sub-replacement showing and was released late in the season. He returned to the Padres for the final few games of the season and re-signed on a $1MM pact for 2024. San Diego gave Profar the starting left field job almost by default. Even Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who has acquired the switch-hitter multiple times in his career, wouldn’t have foreseen a season like this.

Profar hit .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers while playing in 158 games. He set career marks in longballs and in all three slash stats. Profar deservedly earned his first All-Star nod. He finished seventh in MLB (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage. The six players above him in OBP: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr.

When a player has this kind of an outlier season, it’s easy to assume it to be luck. That’s not the case here. Profar pushed his average exit velocity up nearly five miles per hour. He raised his hard contact rate (the percentage of batted balls hit 95+ MPH) by a staggering 13 percentage points. In 2023, Profar ranked between Willi Castro and Harrison Bader in hard contact. This year, he slotted between Carlos Correa and Jorge Soler. He got to that power without losing any of the plate discipline or bat-to-ball skills that have always been his best asset. He showed he could maintain that level for one season. Do teams believe he has finally found an All-Star level or view this year as punching above his weight?

The payroll-strapped Padres chose not to issue Profar a qualifying offer, so he’ll reach the market without the burden felt by players like Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.

Profar returns to free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal than he got last winter. He’ll be 32 in February. His camp could look for four years, but that essentially hasn’t been attainable for non-star hitters at that age. Mitch Haniger landed three years and $43.5MM as a corner bat at the same age. Profar’s camp will aim higher than that. The Padres would certainly love to have him back, but it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to make that work with other needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Royals, Reds, Blue Jays, Angels, Pirates, Phillies and Braves could also have interest.