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Originally Posted by Rain Man
Okay, I don't know if we can have a discussion about this without getting banished to DC, but I think we can be agnostic on the politics and just talk investment implications.
What should we be doing differently after the election? I generally don't pay much attention because the two main parties are pretty effective at blocking each other's agendas and making change slow. But if one party now holds all three elements of the legislative and executive branch, and also holds the Supreme Court, we could be in for some changes.
Tariffs is probably an obvious first step. It'll make imported goods more expensive, so it seems like companies with domestic production capacity might have an uptick in revenues and profits. I suspect they'll also raise prices to just below the tariff pricing, because why would they not? Who are we talking about here? Who stands to make a killing?
Will Tesla thrive? It seems to me like they're probably going to be getting some pretty good subsidies or something.
Oil? Less regulation, more drilling. Does that mean more profit?
I think if any radical economic policy shifts occur, we're at risk of unexpected outcomes, and unexpected outcomes are more often negative than positive. Will the entire economy and stock market slow down? Should we be moving more to international stocks?
I decided to start buying in on a couple of gold mining companies based in Canada, and also a South American utility provider. I've been needing a little more international exposure anyway, and I think these stocks will do fine if the American economy hits turbulence.
What should we be doing?
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I think the big moves are done.
Tesla skyrocketed, my ADM stock cratered. News is done and now it's back to business as usual.
One guy brought up that if Trump actually does Tariffs, the beneficiaries will be small-medium sized companies with no international exposure.
I'm unwilling to go there, at least at this point, but if you wanted to layer in some positions there I wouldn't hate it, especially because in my case, I've shirked small cap stocks. But I wouldn't be comfortable picking winners, I'd need to find an ETF or something that would filter out some international exposure, but still have a lot of diversification, because if Tariffs hit in earnest, the economic impact will be so damn significant that there isn't any real way to pick small cap winners IMO.